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Way more than six months. You may be talking about how the world looks from your vantage point, as well you should. But there’s a reason why the world doesn’t allocate trillions of dollars of capital based on that.

I really value skeptical people and skepticism generally. But what I think skeptical people would prefer to consider themselves is: rational and reasonable, with their beliefs well calibrated.

You’re not the only one to think that literally nothing major or significant has happened with AI but that’s simply wrong. Every major tech company - the ones poised to get the first best rewards, have already gotten good incremental revenue from AI via ads ranking/recommendations (Google, Meta, etc.), good productivity increases due to scale of workforce and advanced in house tooling. You won’t see these numbers and you don’t have to believe them. But I have seen them and I believe them, and I, like you, hate bullshit.

by ThrowawayR210 hours ago|

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Classic argumentum ad populum fallacy. The world allocated the equivalent of trillions to the dotcom bubble shortly before it became the dotcom bust, mortgage CDOs before the 2008 debt crisis, and the cryptocurrency mania before its bubble popped. The world has allocated vast sums of money to rather stupid things many, many times in the past.

by brazukadev10 hours ago|

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> Every major tech company - the ones poised to get the first best rewards, have already gotten good incremental revenue from AI via ads ranking/recommendations (Google, Meta, etc.)

That's just software evolving. It happened before LLMs, it would happen without LLMs.

> good productivity increases due to scale of workforce and advanced in house tooling.

Exactly same case.

by aspenmartin1 hours ago|

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But I don’t really understand: the ask is for evidence AI is generating meaningful returns and it demonstrably is, even while we have integrated these tools only partially. “Just software evolving” um yes, I agree, just that now this happens faster and more efficiently. It is also more than that: models that power advertising and content recommendation at TikTok, Google, Facebook, Instagram, etc are not just “software evolving” it is meaningful improvements to models that are only possible with good AI.

by handoflixue12 hours ago|

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Can you name literally any other technology that had hundreds of millions of users within the first six months of being invented?

Six months after the internet was invented, you could send email between a few universities.

Six months after the computer was invented, they still hadn't actually built one.

The first transcontinental railroad, took about six YEARS just to build.

by nothinkjustai9 hours ago|

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GPT did not have hundreds of millions of users when it was invented almost a decade ago…

by handoflixue1 hours ago|

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If you want to move the goal posts, that's fine, acknowledge it: the original claim I'm responding to was "We're almost 6 months into all this AI-code madness"

If you want to set GPT as the target, that's even easier! In that decade it has passed the Turing Test, solved novel open math problems, generates audio, video, and music, and can write coherent code. Again, there is no technology that has improved more rapidly than LLMs.