The technical term is that you must have an “insurable interest” in what you insure. Both of your examples are people protecting their insurable interest. Ownership is the most common insurable interest, but there are many other ways to have one.

This is done because the insurance company wants you to prefer that the covered event doesn’t happen, which avoids some conflicts of interest.

These prediction market events don’t have the usual insurance interests involved.

To perhaps be a bit more pendantic.

You're not allowed to take out life insurance on someone you don't know or have a relationship (business or otherwise) with.

Life insurance on a business partner works. Life insurance on your spouse as well.

Life insurance on the leader of a random country? Unlikely

No no I appreciate the pedantry, thank you for the correction

> I'm not sure where this false premise started but alot of people believe it.

It being the driving plot behind Double Indemnity probably started it. I always thought it was true until your comment, too.

> Well, you are privately allowed to bet on whatever you like with another individual.

What jurisdiction are we painting with that broad brush? This is far from universally true, even in the US.

Nope. "We're just an intermediary between people" is a 100+ year old yarn that casinos and bookies have been trying to spin. If you're presenting a point of entry to a betting line and taking a cut, congrats, you're the house. Doesn't matter if you adjust the betting line manually based on intuition or algorithmically based on betting volume. Sometimes it doesn't get enforced because of corruption, but if this was the case, then why aren't there tons of independent unregulated poker casinos where players just play against each other? If you facilitate and take a cut, you're the house.

Can you name the individuals you are betting with on Polymarket? Can they name you?

That "facilitating" argument didn't work out for Silk Road.

What the hell are you talking about? You are absolutely not allowed to bet on whatever you'd like with another individual. Depending on what you're betting on (for example, the price of a stock or the throw of a card), it falls under varying different regimes. This is highly regulated and has been for most of the whole of human history.

Yes, there are de minimis exceptions. Your office NCAA pool, for example, is often legal, but it has nothing to do with what we're talking about and is also irrelevant to a business facilitating it via 18 U.S.C. § 1955.