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And like Google and Meta, these companies are going to morph into advertising giants. Advertising is an economic black hole and it eats everything that comes close.

by fooker2 hours ago|

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Embedding ads in LLM responses is something researchers are having a lot of trouble figuring out right now.

I have seen the results of some early attempts. It fails in such hilarious ways that all these companies are scared of productizing it. But once someone does it, the taboo is broken and everyone else will follow suit immediately.

by jaimie1 hours ago|

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It's already being done: https://openai.com/index/testing-ads-in-chatgpt/

by brookst4 hours ago|

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How does that view align with Anthropic leasing data centers from others?

I don’t know OpenAI’s infra, but to the extent they are buying GPUs and building data centers with their own money, that sounds like a bad move.

Satya has mismanaged the AI transition in many ways, but one thing he got right is that models are commodities, and the value is in applications that apply them to create user benefit. I agree that any company trying to build a moat with a model is not long for this world.

by cmiles83 hours ago|

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Then they go bankrupt.

by butokai5 hours ago|

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Do you think there will still be an incentive to release weights in that scenario? Everyone will have models only if there continue to be companies releasing weights.

by PLenz4 hours ago|

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Companies won't but I suspect this is a role that something else open source-y will fill that niche. Maybe orgs like wikimedia or internet archive, maybe some hackers just making things, maybe nation states that want to disrupt other players. Also model training will get better and better both on the algo and the hardware side. You can easily see a world where you might be able to train a good enough model on a home lab in a few days.

by rmoriz2 hours ago|

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But you will need training data. Like a whole Internet search engine or massive data scraping. That‘s a thing that will not change with better algorithms, hardware or cheaper energy.

by PLenz2 hours ago|

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Data is the only moat but they'll be starting in the same place the current set of players statyed out just a few years ago. I suspect that the delta between what is publicly available (if not legally publicly available! see scihub) and what open ai and anthropic have is relatively small.

by aorloff2 hours ago|

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Maybe. But if we can all run our own model locally in 2 years on commodity hardware OpenAI and Anthropic will start to look like WeWork during the pandemic

by PLenz2 hours ago|

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I agree with you that they are headed in that direction! The GPU shortage is (I think) similar to the pandemic era hiring binge. It's less about the extra compute and more about denying the GPUs to potential competitors. They're racing against time to find something that gives them real moat (gen ai I guess?) and they are trading money for time.

This is also why the money being poured into datacenters isn't going to result in as much development as you think. It's about leveraging other people's money to lockdown more future hardware. This is going to end exactly like fiber build out in the 2000s. Eventually that fiber got used but the folks who originally paid for it got hosed.

by rmoriz2 hours ago|

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And free model supply will stop…

by jayd162 hours ago|

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I wonder if Google will put out a free model with the ads already baked in.

by kyboren1 hours ago|

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If you mean releasing model weights: They won't, because they know the "shill something" vector will get abliterated immediately. And they can't use trade secrets or copyright to stop it, either, because they released the model themselves and you don't need to redistribute weights, just an adblocker LoRA.