I’m not necessarily expecting a crash any time soon. (But we average a major correction, what? every 8 years? So if you keep predicting one long enough you will eventually have been right all along.) But I do feel comfortable saying OpenAI and Anthropic are overpriced. For more or less the same reason Cisco was overpriced in the late ‘90s. It’s not that what they were making wasn’t valuable; it’s that we got out over our skis a bit over how much of it the world could actually manage to consume in the immediate future.
Groupon got to pretty much 100% penetration, still crashed and burned right after IPO. I think Zynga followed a similar trajectory.
> "There's no way you'll hurt yourself walking to the living room"
> "Read history: people always think everything is fine ... until it isn't."
History is also replete with people constantly predicting collapses that don't come. Timing the market is very hard with numbers, it's total nonsense if one is just going off vibes.
The good news is that these folks seem to be in possession of a vibe-rator.
Anthropic, SpaceX and OpenAI are not banks. (Also, we had the largest bank runs in American history three years ago. The ordinary American barely noticed.)
Yes. Equity investors. The ones who buy hundreds of billions to trillions of dollars of American stocks a quarter.
Cause if that's the case, I see no reason for a government bailout should things go south. Nobody's pension would be affected by some private investor losing money on a bad investment.
But if that's not the case, then someone somewhere along the chain is acting as a bank, subject to a vibe-driven run.
Yes [1].
> Nobody's pension would be affected by some private investor losing money on a bad investment
...pensions also invest in the stock market.
> if that's not the case, then someone somewhere along the chain is acting as a bank, subject to a vibe-driven run
You're confusing deeply unrelated concepts. Whether or not someone who loses money is politically sympathetic has nothing to do with whether they're at risk of a bank run.
[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/20260319/html/f22...
If pensions invest in the stock market, then they are de-facto acting as a bank. And last I checked, in the land of the free, you get to withdraw your 401k should you vibe with the decision to do so [please don't do this based on this post alone].
What does this mean? Who do you think benefits from a bailout?
> If pensions invest in the stock market
Pensions are private investors. And pensions invest in all kinds of things. Plenty are already shareholders in these companies.
> last I checked, in the land of the free, you get to withdraw your 401k should you vibe with the decision to do so
This is a non sequitur. Nobody disputed this. And 401(k)s are not pensions.
So just buy the dip if it actually crashes.
The bubble can't pop until after an IPO, and that doesn't mean "immediately after".
You can't have a run on a privately held company.