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P/E is price to earning. Price to revenue is P/S. AER's P/S is like 3, so the discrepancy is much worse than you think.

Sidenote: 3 is actually high. 94 is absolutely ridiculous.

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> Sidenote: 3 is actually high.

Do you mean low? AAPL has a ps of 10.

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Generally < 1 is low, between 1 and 3 is in the middle ground, and > 3 is high. However, that all depends on margins, which is why people generally use P/E or forward P/E rather than P/S to compare multiples. Issue here being that P/E is nonsensical for unprofitable companies or companies with very low margins. Spacex's P/E after Google pushed them into profitability by a slim margin would look absolutely stupid.

I would also like to point out, that on a forward P/E basis, AAPL is quite overvalued compared to historical norms, but basically every tech company is right now.

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Nothing about Apple is representative of a normal business.
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It’s an interesting phenomenon: being Apple is one of their key sales drivers. The brand is worth more than the business itself.
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Most companies have a P/S of 1 or 2, almost all have it bellow 4.

A few segments of the economy are known to have low revenue/investment ratios, and companies there get P/S up to 7 or so.

Then, very few companies have people betting on their growth so much that their P/S get as high as 15.

And then you have literally about half a dozen exceptions on the ones S&P tracks that get higher than that.

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You're arguing with people who have no idea what they're talking about.
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Who's arguing?
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The question on my mind is-is this IPO designed to rip off recreational passive investors and those of us that invest in retirement accounts?
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With the Nasdaq rule changes, almost certainly.
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Those rule changes aren't happening.
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My understanding is that the s&p 500 were the only ones unwilling to change their rules.
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Why "unwilling"? That's a weird wording. S&P Dow Jones Indices decided to not go through with their rule change after it became a political issue. Obviously they were willing, the proposed rule change originated from them!
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Please provide some support that the rule changes were proposed from within. Given the fact they tried pulling this nonsense on 3 indices, it seems very unlikely the rules changes originated from within.
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It is what S&P Dow Jones Indices themselves say, so the burden of proof to prove otherwise must fall on you.

And anyway, the rule change is truly the only reasonable way they can react to the current situation.

It will absolutely be untenable to keep Anthropic , OpenAI and SpaceX off the S&P 500 with them also being the highest valued companies on the market.

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If I were the DJI I would have proposed the change, simply so that we could get some outrage flowing and shut it down.

Without the proposal, you'd have outrage out the other side that it wasn't included (especially if it shoots off like, well, a rocket).

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But why? Won't that just make it far more awkward when they're inevitably forced to go through with very similar changes in the end?
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Quatsch. The indices will say whatever benefits their power the most, regardless of truth. The fact that they are bending now to pressure is proof enough for me.

We live in an age proving that valuation is just a manipulation.

This whole story is just like the BaM situation: the people with more money feel emboldened to pull every dastardly trick they can to tilt the table towards their pockets, away from the honest participants. SpaceX and the AI IPOs are just the latest and most grand scheme. I’m guessing you were surprised by the collapse of lehman brothers back in the day.

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So you don't actually have any evidence to support your claim? This just seems like a matter of faith at this point, that's fine.
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I don’t think you have either?

It’s and interesting point. I’ve done a bit of searching and am also empty handed.

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>I don’t think you have either?

I don't know how I could? The indices have already provided their reasoning for these rule changes, but that's just summarily rejected by the conspiracy-minded.

To laymen this appears to be a grand conspiracy. Rules are being changed to accommodate big companies, that's usually bad.

To people in the financial industry, it's fait accompli. The indices exist to reflect the market, these IPOs are going to be big enough that the 90s-era rules will/would result in untenable divergence.

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They became effective last month.
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How would you "design" an IPO to do that? What exactly is that even supposed to mean?
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Passive investors and retirement accounts are heavily in on automatic indexing.

This deal has been pushed hard to be included prematurely in the indexes to the point that Nasdaq changed the rules.

The accusation is that these changes were made so that index funds will buy this stock automatically far earlier than they would have previously. Given the… uh… astronomical asking price, it looks like SPCEX is meant for Elon stans and institutional index investors to be the bag holders.

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>This deal has been pushed hard to be included prematurely in the indexes to the point that Nasdaq changed the rules.

Pushed by whom? Can you link some reporting on this topic?

> Given the… uh… astronomical asking price, it looks like SPCEX is meant for Elon stans and institutional index investors to be the bag holders.

"asking price" lmao, buyers decide the prices they'll buy at.

Edit: I wonder, why is pointing out that this apparently massive conspiracy hasn't been covered by a single credible news outlet worthy of so many downvotes?

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It’s been covered extensively and is common knowledge. One example after a 5 second google: https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/may-jobs-report-stock-marke...
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Where does your link describe this claimed external pressure?
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> buyers decide the prices they'll buy at.

Not if they're index funds. They buy at the price it is, until they've satisfied their holdings represent the appropriate share of the market. Which, pre-IPO and early-days-after-IPO, is likely to not be accurate to the long-term price.

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Index funds don't buy at any "asking price" set by SpaceX.
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It has been covered extensively. The change of nasdaq rules has been covered by Bloomberg, WSJ, NYT, and most others who have reporters on the Wall Street beat. Columnists at all three of those publications have called it out as a possible play on institutional indexing money. I don’t need to tell you who like it’s some big secret either. It was Elon Musk on behalf of spacex. The changes were openly part of the ipo.

I’m not going to cite sources for a major financial news story that is being extensively covered in the financial and general press.

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Here's Matt Levine from Bloomberg saying something along the lines of "lol, obviously the indices have to do this, they'll look like fools if they don't because these will be the biggest companies on the market". He famously spends much of his time making fun of Musk, but seems to reject the idea of his influence here.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-26/ind...

Perhaps you can provide a single counterpoint? I can't find the columns you refer to.

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That is one of the columns. The headline makes my point succinctly. Your paraphrase of the column misses the crucial point. A Nasdaq index fund doesn’t buy a company unless it is in the Nasdaq. Under the old rules SPCEX was ineligible for listing. Now Nasdaq index funds all have to buy. Index funds by nature do not selectively buy stocks, if the stock is in the index, they buy, that’s their mandate. That’s the game, to be included in as many indexes as possible that force institutional investors to buy. That’s hundreds of billions worth of funds that now have to buy in, that previously wouldn’t have had to if it wasn’t listed on the Nasdaq.

The SP500 did not waive the rules, and that made above the fold news this week, because it is a major blow to the big IPOs happening this month since they are valued so high. It will be harder for them to move stock if the massive index funds aren’t buying automatically. The big IPOs this month are asking for prices that demand hundreds of billions or trillions of dollars of liquidity. Index funds are automatic liquidity, but only if you are on the index.

They didn’t ask them to change long standing rules for shits and giggles.

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>They didn’t ask them to change long standing rules for shits and giggles.

Who are "They"? Did you maybe forget the ((())) or are we just supposed to guess? I don't know if you intended it that way, but using the vague nudge-nudge wink-wink "they" like this sure comes across as an antisemitic dog whistle.

> That is one of the columns. The headline makes my point succinctly

Regardless of how you choose to interpret the headline, the actual column seems to say the very opposite of what you claim.

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In the context of my message it is very clear that they is SpaceX. This isn’t a secret. Nasdaq has said that they are changing the rules specifically for this listing.

It’s clear you aren’t interested in a good faith conversation. Thanks for the discourse either way.

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The idea that SpaceX would have to ask Nasdaq for anything is preposterous.

Also, you're getting the most basic details wrong. Nasdaq didn't change their listing requirements. SpaceX has been eligible for listing under their rules for years.

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You use your back channels and good ole boys club connections to try getting the rules for inclusion changed. Maybe collude would be a better verb than design? Is that your objection?
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Can you share any credible reporting substantiating this theory?
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Common sense and rationality says that you cant motivate rules changes simultaneously across 3 independent indices without outside pressure. Can you provide some reasoning why this wouldn’t be the obvious situation?
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Common sense and rationality says this: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/newsletters/2026-05-26/ind...

>index providers will have to decide: Are they in the business of giving passive investors exposure to all the stocks that the market thinks are good, or to all the stocks that the index committee thinks are good?

>There’s only one plausible answer.

Can you explain why your theory is better than the one widely believed by people who actually work in the financial industry?

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Lol, the dude asking for reporting to justify his oligarch dickriding dismisses patrick boyle in his chat history as just a youtuber while using paywalled links to support his position.

My theory is better because it isn’t ignorant of the billionaire dynamics in play.

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Criticizing Bloomberg as a poor source for finance-related reporting is kind of hilarious, but then I guess your position does seem vastly more credible when viewed through a lens that also rejects Bloomberg.
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newly created alt because apparently my main account has hurt too many feefees to allow me to respond to a discussion I'm having. "posting too fast" my swingin dick...

I'm not criticizing bloomberg, i'm criticizing you for posting paywalled links to support your position in an open discussion.

Given I'm bailing on this convo now because hackers news is a shite application getting in the way of people trying to talk, let me respond to our sibling thread with the closet thing my opinion has to evidence: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=smH. IMO we remain at an all time high of financial flimflammery as a portion of our GDP and there have been a number of recessions triggered by the financial sectors malfeasance during my lifetime because of it.

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You assume far too much competence from the supposed conspirators. If what you're claiming was truly happening, it would have been leaked and widely reported.

Yet, somehow, no journo covering the world's leakiest industry has been able to break this massive-if-true story.

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Common sense and rationality go out the window in corrupt, unregulated environments with perverse incentives.
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Yeah, only a small portion of SpaceX's revenue actually comes from Space (payload delivery). At this point they are basically an ISP (Starlink) and a datacenter/leasing company.

It's not clear if Musk (SpaceX/X.ai) is really pursuing AI any more - I expect he hasn't necessarily given up on it, and he hasn't said he has, but it seems he's rented out almost all of his GPUs to Anthropic and Google, so that's not going to be much of a revenue generator, at least for time being.

It was in the news not too long ago that Musk was looking to use Samsung to fabricate "AI chips", presumably either for X.ai and/or Tesla, so perhaps he's basically put X.ai on hold until he can reboot his efforts with his own chips (& perhaps a new datacenter)?

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According to their IPO S-1 draft they are 93% an AI company and 4% a space company. Its the remaining 3% of the company that is profitable, the Starlink stuff.
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As I recall isn't Starlink revenue at least 3x Space revenue, so not sure how they are characterizing that 3:1 ratio as 3% vs 4% !

The "93% AI company" is also a huge mischaracterization since this isn't AI business - it's datacenter/GPU leasing business which their 2 customers can pull the plug on with 90 days notice.

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given that SpaceX is choosing what price they're charging starlink, there's a reasonable argument that starlink isn't profitable either
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Does Starlink pay SpaceX for launches?
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Yeah, Starlink is about 3.5x the space launch revenue but still only about 0.5x in terms of profit. Falcon 9 is as optimized as a rocket could be, and absolutely owns the market. Starlink is a mostly rural service with global consumer pricing where average monthly rates in poorer countries drag the average down. Starlink government and commercial business, however, is growing quickly and I expect that soon Starlink will be ahead of launch, in terms of income, probably by the end of this year.
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Given the amount of compute rented I doubt there’s anything meaningful left for the people there to do any AI.
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Maybe they'll become an AI company again after they've abused their privileged access as hardware providers to reverse-engineer Google and Anthropic's weights and operations.
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The profit center, to the extent any division makes money, is Starlink, yes, but what we have always known as SpaceX is just a tiny side project in the combined company.
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I’m pretty sure he’s just trying to become the world’s first trillionaire at this point, these deals are obviously gimmicks to boost the SpaceX share price and his less-than-critical-thinking fanbase will happily oblige.
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Yeah, then next move may be to have SpaceX buy Tesla with it's inflated stock, before it collapses.
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> I sincerely hope the market is not willing to value this sort of deal at a P/E ratio anywhere near 94.

It will very likely be valued much, much higher. The SpaceX IPO is, in itself, a marvelous piece of financial engineering (requiring co-operation among multiple actors) which has been a long time in the works.

- Right out of the gate nearly all retail investment platforms have dramatically reduced requirements for purchasing an IPO, most notably Fidelity, which previously required $500,000 in your account to participate in an IPO reduced (on Friday) this amount to $2,000

- Retail investment, despite being quieter in the post-WSB era, is at all time highs.

- Reports are that the SpaceX IPO is already highly oversubscribed, meaning there are many more retail investors interested than there are shares available.

- SpaceX has a wildy low float of only ~4% which means price discovery will be much slower then normal, especially with aforementioned demand

- All of these retail platforms enforce some sort of "soft lock-in" whereby you're excluded from future IPOs if you sell your shares within 15-30 days. So if you want to get out you're not going to be able to participate in Anthropic/OpenAI IPOs in a few months.

- Coincidentally, most of the major indexes (thankfully excluding the S&P 500) have adjusted their rules to require only 15 days post-IPO before inclusion and have no profitability requirements. Many also adjusted the rules so that low float IPOs have their weight multiplied despite the low float.

- Many retirement accounts, in one way or another, are required to track these indexes and will be forced to buy these SpaceX shares at a very likely frenzied price and further drive the price up.

SpaceX will very likely open with far more retail demand than shares, the insiders (VCs, employees etc) will still be legally locked from selling, retail investors are penalized if they sell, and so the demand will be high and supply very low.

If they can keep this demand hyped for just 3 weeks, price will still be elevated when retirement accounts are forced to buy... roughly the same time retail investor start seeing the penalty for selling expiring (meaning it is not irrational at all to be in the IPO, but it is irrational to sell before being listed in an index).

Fun fact: the other fascinating thing about this IPO is the terms for insider lock-in. At first earnings (Jun 30) inside investors unlock and can therefor liquidate 20% of their shares... but if the stock performs well, they can unlock and additional 10%. There are additional rules for continued unlocking of more shares depending on performance as time goes on. So everyone on the inside has a very vested interest in a spike in stock prices: not only will their stocks be worth more, but they can realize that value faster.

I would be surprised if SpaceX price doesn't explode in the first few weeks because for everyone involved this would make sense. It's only in August that we'll start seeing the really interesting things start happening.

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> Right out of the gate nearly all retail investment platforms have dramatically reduced requirements for purchasing an IPO, most notably Fidelity, which previously required $500,000 in your account to participate in an IPO reduced (on Friday) this amount to $2,000

Not at all surprising that the US in 2026 has degenerated to the point of turning the equity market itself into a bucket shop.

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Comparing SpaceX to an aircraft leasing company seems more foolish to me than a 94x multiple.

I understand the gist here, but come on. This is a generational company. It’s the only relevant space launch business, and has its tentacles deep in AI infrastructure as well. Maybe the AI bet is foolish — I don’t know — you should short it!

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I am comparing SpaceX’s datacenter-and-GPU leasing business to aircraft leasing.

It’s possible, and common, for one large company to have multiple business lines, each worthy of a very different P/E multiplier. In principle you end up with a weighted average of some sort.

edit: Matt Levine has some great articles about this phenomenon and how some companies try to juice it.

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I would short xAI but the market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent. Plus all the foolishness to prop it up with other businesses just seems like bad accounting.
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'generational company'? Are you on drugs or so?

All of Musks business stuff highly depends on first mover advantage.

If people now selling it as a 'generational company' than it becomes even more stupid.

He didn't invent an unkown solution he is hiding to transform something into gold, he only put a lot of money into rockets.

And the rockets right now don't even have enough payload to have unlimited potential. If Space-X knows how to build a rocket very efficient, 10 years later other companies can do that too.

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> All of Musks business stuff highly depends on first mover advantage.

Do they? Out of all of them, I think only one of them really depends on, or even benefits from, first mover advantages: Starlink.

Tesla famously gave away all their patents, and is also being overtaken by Chinese companies with cheaper batteries because batteries are the expensive bit; SpaceX rockets are theoretically well protected because national security regulations >> patent law, but even there lots of Chinese clones popping up; TBC and Neuralink and SolarCity are going nowhere fast; Grok wasn't even the first in its field; Twitter/X is not only in heavy decline but was also always trivially cloneable and the clones are now an open source ecosystem of semi-distributed alternatives; xAI has shown ability to make data centres while pissing off locals but the market for those data centres is other AI companies who also commission their own data centres but found themselves scaling much faster than xAI did.

(Starlink's first mover advantage is "this orbit already contains a satellite").

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He can’t do with rockets what he says SpaceX has to do to meet its goals, and he isn’t raising enough money to get the job done either.

It’s another misdirection.

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I don't think you can short it before the IPO happens. Well, unless you've got a few millions and go to a bank and have them make a product for you specifically. But for normal people, for now, not happening.
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