And there will always be incentivised parties that release models. Nvda for one has every incentive to keep the nemotron line going, as they're directly profiting from people running this. And the models aren't really far from open SotA anyway.
Goog will probably continue to release the small models, since they'll use them for browser stuff anyway, and know that they'll leak. So for them it's a win-win to release the small models and gain some dev market share.
And the chinese labs also have incentives to keep releasing models, and will likely continue to get gov support to do so (yay commercial wars between nations).
Your right to 3d print whatever you want is about to be taken away (in California).
What software you can run on your computer can already be restricted.
Absolutely everything can be taken away. The simplest way to remove open models is probably to declare them a tool that terrorists could use. Crazy? Yes, the world is totally crazy these days.
Open source and open hardware can be called illegal by a government, but, if we collectively invest our energy into open alternatives, they can't be taken away in the same sense. I can build a RepRap printer and I can use a local AI model. It's on all of us to make sure that the open alternatives are viable, maybe in the current global political reality now more than ever.
Making something illegal isn't a disincentive for everyone. When they start banning books, some of us start assembling printing presses.
* Drugs
* Media piracy
* Alcohol
* Sex work
* Unlicensed gambling
The government is not an all powerful entity with absolute control over its people. Even in countries under past and present dictatorship there are examples of people getting access to what the government deemed as illegal.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102
Of course you’ll always be able to get access but the risk can be made so high that most people won’t try it.
There are countries that have death penalty on dealing with drugs and really severe prison terms just for having a small amount of drugs. There are still people that do it, but most people are effectively deterred because it’s just not worth it.
Possibly I've been mislead about how easy it is to access illegal drugs. I get the impression most people have actually tried them; or at least have easy access if they feel like it. Although I haven't bothered to look up the stats so maybe that is mistaken.
Hypothetically... say I rent out some server space in Russia, host GLM 5.2 and charge/pay for everything with crypto (one of the privacy coins). How exactly would the US government shut that little operation down? Or make it more risky for any participant than marijuana or torrenting? Even detecting it is an interesting technical challenge. It seems like it'd be low-skill and low-risk, and take insane resources on the part of the US to stamp out for something so harmless. The hydra would be growing heads faster than they could cut them off.
This isn't bars of gold, they can search my house all they like and there isn't going to be a lot in it. They would probably struggle to figure out who I am to do a targeted raid, let alone all the other small fry who could pull of a similar scheme.
Plus for a certain type of person "Piracy" is more of a philosophical belief or political position - there are fundamentalist equivalent, very proficient, "Pirates" who will under no circumstances stop and are not doing it for money. There are obviously an enormous amount who are in it for the money - "big brand names" now reportedly comprise as high as 63% of the advertising on illicit piracy sites - I'm too lazy to get the link, that sentence ought to be enough tho if you want to look into that bizarre reality.
I'm not certain either of those things are in the Government's direct control - both require society at large to share the belief and essentially choose not to do said activities.
(Regarding your second example, unfortunately most abusers are people children know, the Epstein Class was supposed to be just Q Anon crazy conspiracy stuff, none of this is ok in any fashion. Both exist, one local entirely beyond the government - the other appears to have incorporated people from government.)
My point is simply this - WE determine what the Government can do. What we believe matters more than anything else. Don't ever discredit The People's ability - we are pretty awesome.
It is on people to realize we have the ultimate power and oppose the overreach of government in all ways we can to keep our freedoms.
Freedom is not free, after all
First they came for the Californians
And I did not speak out
Because I was not a Californian Then they came for me
But it was unsuccessful
Because I was not in CaliforniaEverything cannot, in fact, be taken away. Don't propagandize yourself. Some things, like information, are free. Not even China can prevent all its citizens from accessing Western internet. USGov simply does not have the resources to find and audit every hard drive and USB stick in the country for illegal files. The internet cannot be censored 100% without literally cutting every cable and confiscating every radio.
The software that runs on my computer cannot, in fact, be restricted. It can be declared illegal, but there literally is no mechanism by which it can be enforced other than a government goon standing over my shoulder 24/7.
Some freedoms really cannot be removed without utterly implausible amounts of effort. Arguing otherwise is helping to erode freedom. So stop it.
Yes, over my dead body.
But in a free and democratic society, there's an enormous difference between "the democratically chosen state powers may take something from me" and "a private entity takes away something from me on an inscrutable whim with no recourse".
Neither is good if you don't want the thing taken away. But removing the second mechanism is still a laudable goal.
Are laws that are inherently unenforceable even laws?
They're releases so far have been kind of lackluster compared to Qwen and other Chinese models. My suspicion is that Nvidia won't be releasing models that appear to compete with frontier models because that would upset their big customers.
This is pure speculation, but I have a hunch that the Nemotron line is intended as a shot across the bow, and that's why its capabilities have been strong but not quite open-frontier level.
In theory yes, but the average person can't really run the big open models.
This is already happening, try to find a provider that still hosts older, especially less popular or succeeded open models.
For me personally, I've been trying to access Kimi K2-0711. There seems to be only one provider left on openrouter (NovitaAI) and 3/4 requests error out
A model that writes code without knowledge of any language or library changes for half a decade is less useful. A 2021 era chatgpt would be quite quaint in 2026.
Right now the Chinese labs might have incentives to release their models for free, and maybe Google is happy to release open weights today, but I'm sure there are already bean counters at Google salivating at the idea of having Gemini in Chrome as part of a Google AI monthly subscription just like YouTube premium and other Google subscriptions.
Correction: The capabilities and knowledge of that model can be improved via self-distillation, so the value of that model increases over time.
This is where I think self-distillation is the main way forward, and probably the second best thing ever happened to AI/LLM after the transformer.
Based on self-distillation, the value of the open weights models will incease over time for sub-specialization through post-training and fine-tuning.
Please check these very promising recent works and results from MIT/ETH, UCLA and Apple [1],[2,[3]. For example the MIT/ETH self-distillation approach was demonstrated by a single H200 GPU. Apple approach is even simpler that it's simply called Simple Self-Distillation (SSD), pun intended.
[1] Self-Distillation Enables Continual Learning:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.19897
[2] Self-Distilled Reasoner: On-Policy Self-Distillation for Large Language Models:
https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.18734
[3] Embarrassingly Simple Self-Distillation Improves Code Generation:
I think this matters less than you think. If the spigot turns off, open LLM research is going to have a powerful incentive to focus on post-training to refresh stale base models. And post-training, in general, is so much cheaper and faster than pre-training anyway. I was pretty surprised to learn that GLM-5.2's entire RL training (the part that makes it reliable at agentic tasks) was completed in just TWO DAYS.
I realize that my amazing tool/system of local AI is out of date - I still very much like having it and it is not at all a bad thing to hav. Everyone in theory ought to have a local backup - for just in case.
The fact that people will have this in this one, albeit extreme, example - it would most definitely matter in the event of a societal collapse. Not everyone will have it - can they run those giant data centers off a few solar panels like a desktop PC?
For this one existential reason alone, I recommend everyone at least play around local enough to have a few models functional.
Not really.
it's my theory at least, the Hindenburg Research of AI
To weaken the stature of the USA on the global stage relative to themselves. Perhaps decrease US investment in AI and slow creation of some general AI superweapon I suppose.
Because the goal is to show that cheap chinese AI can compete with expensive USA AI, it's nessisarially a low-cost attack relative to the "damage" it could create.
>Why do we think there is a bubble for sure in 2025/2026?
Well that's the position that these chinese firms are trying to convince us of, and they can convince us by undercutting proprietary models in price/performance/openness.
In other words, we can be sure there is a bubble to the extent that open-weight models can successfully demonstrate that there is no moat.
>Why doesn't China also worry about their own AI bubble inside the country?
Because they haven't bet the farm on AI like the USA has.
To weaken the stature of the USA on the global stage relative to themselves. Perhaps decrease US investment in AI and slow creation of some general AI superweapon I suppose.
Well that's the position that these chinese firms are trying to convince us of, and they can convince us by undercutting proprietary models in price/performance/openness.
Because they haven't bet the farm on AI like the USA has.
I think the future of open weights models will be similar to fabless chip design companies. There will be companies that can train models and they will licence those models to inference companies that manage the APIs.
The inference companies need much less capital and the training companies dont need to divert resources from training to inference.
Some of the Chinese model training companies are already doing this and licencing their models to inference providers.
They steal the scroll/drag touch and turn into a nightmare if zooming / unzooming, and are squashed and unreadable when they first render.
I think at some point, Deepseek or Z or other AI training companies will sell their models for fees. I can imagine buying an LLM model for $499 one-time payment for personal use. Maybe buying software and owning it will come back. Some will make you subscribe so you get the latest models as they release them.
Of course, they will also license their models to inference providers like you said.
And I think https://allenai.org/ has something like this, too.
I remain hopeful that we'll be able to democratize the entire tech stack for this tech.
Plus I am certain it makes financial sense. I am guessing here but fully utilizing a subscriptions limits probably costs the operator more money than the subscription revenue, that is why anthropic is making such a big stink about the chinese data harvesting. By releasing the weights, you are relieving yourself from that burden because the competition does not need to hammer your subscription service they can just download your model and analyze it and run it all day.
Also for the largest models it makes no sense to run it yourself unless you are a major player. Renting the hardware is ludicrously more expensive than their subscription tens of thousands of dollars. And buying the hardware to run them is in the hundreds of thousands of dollars.
The most popular LLM product in China is Bytedance's Doubao. You probably haven't heard of them since they never released weights and don't benchmark particularly well, but Bytedance already had enough users on its other apps that they could directly advertise Doubao to.
Open source and open weights model is how you can harness the potential of all humans to continue development and improving the SOTA of your model. Literally every student on the planet wants to play and improve these models for their own use case.
Plus the ecosystem, once you have users in the ecosystem on your open weight model, this is a giant leverage point in itself
Right now, there is a shortage of talented researchers, and the attention that open models generate allow them to attract good hires. But this is a fragile dynamic that can break in the future. It's not very different from commercial open source work, except it's much more capital intensive and lower volume.
The hardware is already available for renting at reasonable prices. We need community funding. I wish people pooled a fraction of the money they burn on local GPU rigs on funding training/testing/etc.
A big problem is like in open source: it's way too atomized. Just one competitive ground-up community LLM would require tens of millions $. But who gets to pick?
IMHO the only chance is highly specialized and smaller LLMs instead. And this is still millions to train.
And remember LLMs are competitive for only a handful months.
True. And it's possible that this has already happened at Alibaba Qwen - at least for the smaller models that people had a chance of running at home (122B and smaller).
Its higley unlikely we get another open llama model though after the llama4 flop, even if their muse spark seems pretty good.
Or until some bright people figure out drastically more efficient means of training.
I hope that we find ways of continuing to improve these models besides continuing to exponentially increase capex spend until all but one of your competitors falls away.
For instance, Facebook were able to optimize their core ads product for mobile, in a way that was much more difficult for Google.
I don’t think we should describe these companies as simply releasing these highly capable open weight models out of the goodness of their hearts
And while I don't have a very positive view of the Chinese government, last I checked, they haven't been dropping bombs on innocent schoolchildren recently.
Chinese companies have also demonstrably pandered to the American consumer for many decades now.
To further muddy the waters, US companies have, some would argue, been openly hostile to the American consumer via monopoly practices, restricting access to purchased devices, etc.
We can debate the semantics of whether “created by” or “subject to” means the same thing in regards to the Chinese government, but that is neither here nor there.
I’m happy to take your wording that they are obviously “subject to” the Chinese government. That logically means they are subject to carrying out the CCP’s long term strategy. And as you said “whose whims may change at any given moment”.
That directly relates to the OP’s fears, that these models could be taken away at any given moment. “The spigot can be turned off at any time” as they put it.
Or another possibility is they will never turn the spigot off, but they will engineer it in a way to best achieve their goals. My bet is that’s the more likely outcome.
I simply disagree with the OP’s description of the problem as “open weights models are the result of philanthropy by some private org”, I think the problem is much more complicated than that
These companies were not "created by" the Chinese government. Specifically, I'm talking about DeepSeek, Zhipu, MiMo (Xiaomi), Kimi (Moonshot), Qwen (Alibaba). "Subject to" certainly does not mean "created by", it just means that the government ultimately has the power to tell them what to do. The US government has the exact same power, hence why none of us has access to Fable at the moment, but you wouldn't say that OpenAI or Anthropic were "created by" the US government.
There is zero evidence that open-sourcing their models is part of some grand strategy from the Chinese government. In DeepSeek's case, I think it probably is a genuine commitment to open source, for the others I think it's probably just a convenient business decision to gain market share (though Zhipu is probably more aligned, given their academic lineage from Tsinghua).
At some point in the future, the Chinese government may decide it's not in their national interest for Chinese companies to open source their frontier AI models, and DeepSeek et al will be restricted from doing so. I'm well aware of that. But until that point in time, the rest of the world is unanimously better off with open-source Chinese models. We should put as much reliance on Chinese companies long-term as we do on American companies - zero.
Among over countries that are consistent being on top on gross national happiness are Finland, Denmark, Iceland, Switzerland, and the Netherlands. Among them the current abilities to release open models is observable.
USA unfortunately continues to fall down quickly in World Happiness Report rank, and that's not because many other countries made great progresses.
[1] https://www.theinformation.com/articles/deepseek-using-banne...
Moreover, China has just demonstrated a supercomputer faster than any US supercomputer, which unlike the US supercomputers, which need GPUs, achieves its high computational throughput with custom CPUs designed in China (implementing an Armv9-A ISA with SME, i.e. the scalable matrix extension, and with BF16/INT8 operations for AI).
The CPUs used in that supercomputer can reach both a computational throughput and a memory bandwidth sufficiently high for training any LLMs (they have fast HBM memory). Their only disadvantage in comparison with the best NVIDIA GPUs is a slightly lower energy efficiency, but China has abundant cheap energy so this is not a serious disadvantage for them.
But consider the alternative. OpenAI and Anthropic can shut off your account or API key at any time for any reason. How is this better? You have way more security when you're running your own model.
Dunno why you'd want to though, considering v4 Pro (and even Flash) outpace it drastically
It’s sad to think that Mozilla spent years and millions doing virtual reality and AI, they would have been perfect to do this but let’s face it - who knows if Mozilla will be around even 5 years from now