I think "if you don't you can't" does not preclude other don'ts leading to you can'ts, but "Do or you can't" means that if you Do you can, although in normal vernacular usage you are right that they are interchangeable.
You have this backwards IMO. In logical terms (not vernacular usage), "Do or you can't" being true means that if you CAN (play), then you do/did the chores. It definitely does not preclude other don'ts leading to you can'ts.
It only makes "do" a necessary (not sufficient) condition for "can".
Another way to see it : "Do or you can't" is a form of "A or B", so "you can" means B is false, so A must be true.