On the one hand, because it is easy to build products, more and more people will build. And more and more products and features will be built. However, a lot of people who are non-technical will also try to build, but they get stuck, and then they will need engineers. The sheer volume of product built by both experienced technical companies and non-technical novice startups and founders and wannabe founders is going to be massive. That is the bull case for having more software engineers needed in the near future.
On the other hand, in a year or so, people will build all these products, and most of them won't be able to market them, sell them and make money. Eventually, there won't really be a need for that many software engineers.
I think overall the bull case is probably going to win net net.
I’m “seeing” more devs stepping into the SendCutSend stage where they’re cleaning up/fixing/productizing vibe coded projects so maybe there will be some new demand in that space?
I'm hoping vibe-coding plays out the same way.
Another example is when the WWW first became available, and suddenly everyone COULD be a publisher (browsers even included built-in HTML editors), and for a while MySpace pages proliferated until the excitement died down and people went back to being media consumers.
I expect we'll see the same thing with consumer use of generative AI. Suddendly everyone is generating 3-D worlds/games with Fable because they can, but I expect that just as with the web the novelty will wear off and they'll leave it up to the pros.
Professional use of GenAI, and coding in particular, is certainly here to stay, but it seems we're still in the early experimental/hype phase. At least tokenmaxxing has passed, and it seems most companies are now paying attention to, and limiting, how much they are spending, but it doesn't seem we've yet progressed to the stage where companies are paying attention to what they are actually getting out of it - is the money spent showing up on the bottom line in the form of increased revenues.
What I really want is Claude as a deep part of the operating system.
If that happens then a whole lot of the abstraction of software vanishes along with what we think of today as software jobs. I think many new forms of knowledge work would emerge from this though.
I would think that needs massive local compute but I can't imagine that is not the future down the line.
And those people won't need to be software engineers.
> but they get stuck, and then they will need engineers
You've implicitly assumed here that the AI systems will always be worse than the average engineer. That is IMO myopic. I'm not sure that it's even true now let alone in the nebulous future.
Most of what we do as engineers is precisely describe or analyze the behavior we want or the behavior we don't want. All other engineering skills that are useful are ultimately downstream from understanding the behavior of software enough to know which parts to keep, improve, or jettison. Chatbots can take care, somewhat, of analysis or expansion of instructions.... but they can't read minds. I don't see that changing any time soon.
I don't know who needs to hear this, but neither can humans.
You've implicitly assumed here that AI systems will always be worse at contextualizing and framing questions than the average engineer. I'm not sure that it's even true now let alone in the nebulous future.
You haven't narrowed the fundamental myopia of the assumption here, just dressed it in slightly different clothing.
How would they know what to ask or contextualize if they don't know what the user wants?
Plus all the other things that software engineers generally have not learned to a professional level even if they picked up the basics on the job by osmosis, because figuring out the customer's needs (and what they'll pay you for which may be different) is the job of a business analyst, a PM, or a UX researcher, and those are different skills and two of them may come with a Business Informatics degree rather than a CompSci one.
LLMs can be "eh, better than nothing" at many things, not just code.
Plus, this is software "Engineering" we're talking about, which famously gets scare quotes in comparison to all the other forms of engineering because unlike them we don't have as standard things like professional liability insurance to cover serious professional errors of judgment the way someone who signs off on a bridge that collapses would have.
> How would they know
How would you? The answer is the same.
If you're implying chatbots can ask their "client" what to build, good luck with that—contractors are at least liable for what they produce and have extreme incentives to ensure that their clients are happy. To the extent of refusing to build anything if they don't know what they want....
I think for a lot of type of software we have now reached peak employment.
Someone payed a few k just for a normal website.
Do you think that Chinese software industry is that relevant to the kind of software market talked about on HN? I.e. lots of enterprise b2b and infra companies.
Chinese companies have always had a very low willingness to pay for software which kinda breaks the flywheel of B2B SaaS companies and companies to service those companies all the way down.
They have had real issues with deflation rather than the inflation most Western countries have seen over the past five years.
Are we still left with this mindset? Maybe once upon a time but it has definitely been changing.
There's plenty of B2B and enterprise SaaS companies in China serving the Chinese market. Maybe not as many, but no longer the very low of the past.
I also would not say enterprise were not willing to pay, even many years ago. It's the SME that refused to pay. Large CRM, ERPs etc have always existed.
- DeepSeek
- GLM (Z.ai)
- Minimax
- Kimi (Moonshot)
- Hy3 (Tencent)
- Qwen (Alibaba)
(Each one of these with weights available to download and run locally)
I do not know if competition is good, we will see in a few years.
Looking forward having a physical job for a change :D
I do not mean Suckerberg or Eric Schmidt.
No wonder we still can’t get climate change under control
This is was historically a money issue, being green used to be wildly more expensive.
Now being green is cheaper, the limiting factor is how fast PV and batteries can be made or imported.
Recent reports of the sum of all US data centres currently in planning, has a power demand exceeding the (capacity-factor-adjusted!) global annual supply of new PV.
This would be less of a problem, but still a problem, if Trump wasn't trying to get in the way of anything green, or if the companies building data centres decided to also support factories to make more PV.
* Planned new demand: 300 GW; PV factory capacity ~ 600 GW nameplate, but the capacity factor is 14% so that's really 84 GW on average.