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> No, you switched to another SOTA model. You didn't switch to 'Random Corner Store Token Seller' down the street, did you?

You're assuming that SOTA never hits a hard ceiling, letting local models catch up and achieve parity

It seems unlike that the frontier labs are going to be keeping ahead forever, they'll hit some kind of ceiling eventually

by bluegatty42 minutes ago|

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It's a fair point about the 'ceilings' but I'm not quite making that assumption.

I think a few things are going to happen:

1) The Open Weights never really fully catch up, because there's too much Engineering and integration going now. It's way more than 'weights'

2) The Commodity Chinese models never quite catch up for the same reason every other product they make does not catch up - while they will shine in some areas, it won't land fully.

3) Horizontal integration, supply chains, availability, SLA, security, branding, regulatory requirements - all of this will add up to something competitively maintainable.

Can you name a product category that has truly hit a ceiling? Cars, computers, phones, airplanes ... always seems to be a way to nudge forward.

Good point though.