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by RandomLensman3 hours ago |
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upvoteby goobatrooba2 hours ago|
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Markets are now committed than a single pipeline. Germany was importing most gas through other channels - pipelines through Eastern and Southern Europe and shipping - as well as of course plenty of oil. While the NortStream cut had a significant short term impact it took much more effort to wean the country off all the other routes.
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upvoteby RandomLensman2 hours ago|
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NS1 had like 30% of German gas imports (Russia in total around 50%).
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upvoteby freehorse3 hours ago|
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When we are talking about countries, what matters is the political decisions, not the technical details imo.
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upvoteby RandomLensman3 hours ago|
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What German political decision back then do you mean that cut off supply via NS1?
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upvoteby freehorse3 hours ago|
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Political decisions that lead to that point and geopolitical situation. The russians cut the gas on their terms because it would have happened anyway and they were not stupid. Then somebody else blew the pipe up and the whole discussion conveniently ended. The divestment from russian economy and blocking imports was already established, but germany and others could not phase out the gas that fast.
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upvoteby RandomLensman3 hours ago|
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Still, when did Germany cut off Russian gas back then? I don't think there is particular complexity in the sequence of events back then. Germany back then was not seeking an end to supplies then and there, if I recall correctly.
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upvoteby uecker2 hours ago|
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But it did exactly this. The pipeline was not the only way to import Russian gas.
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upvoteby RandomLensman2 hours ago|
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What exactly did Germany do when? You mean after a huge supply cut by Russia, Germany moved to reduce/end use of Russian gas?
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upvoteby uecker52 minutes ago|
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Russia did not completely cut gas exports to Europa, but reduced in substantially, but this was a reaction to sanctions and the decision in Europa to reduce imports from Russia (but more slowly). In fact, Russia still exports to countries in Europa (to be ended in 2027), but Germany stopped gas imports from Russia in September 2022. So the order of things was that Germany decided to reduce imports from Russia, Russian then gradually reduced and then stopped exporting via pipelines to Germany, and Germany then started to import LNT gas as a replacement but - in contrast to others - not from Russia.
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upvoteby bluGill3 hours ago|
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The German political decision to not join with Russia and invade Ukraine (via Poland?).

Just because it was the right decision doesn't mean there are not downsides.

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upvoteby RandomLensman3 hours ago|
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Accepting potential consequences is not the same as oneself cutting things off. Germany did not seek to end supplies then and there.

Edit: there was never any chance of Germany invading Ukraine then/joining Russia on any invasion.

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upvoteby bluGill2 hours ago|
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It doesn't matter what they wanted to do. What matters is what happened. As a result of their actions they got cut off. If Germany had invaded Ukraine (via Poland?) the gas might still be on. Of course we don't know that because other countries would likely take offense to that action and I'm not willing to predict how the world would change if they had. (I can't even imagine change would cause them to be willing to invade in the first place, much less how everyone else would respond.)

Politics often are about the unintended consequences. Often they are also unforeseen.

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upvoteby RandomLensman2 hours ago|
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Germany joining the Russian invasion was never anything even remotely in the option space at all - utterly inconceivable in 2022. (Not aware of Russia seeking any such support there either.)
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upvoteby bluGill2 hours ago|
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I think it is clear to everybody that wasn't an possible option.

There are consequences for it that though.

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upvoteby RandomLensman2 hours ago|
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Sorry, but I think it is absurd to say there was a Russian reaction because Germany did not join their invasion of Ukraine,
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upvoteby bluGill2 hours ago|
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The absurdity is intentional.

However it is still correct. If Germany had joined Russia (and got away with it!), there is every reason to think the pipeline would still be flowing.

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upvoteby emsign50 minutes ago|
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Ukraine would have blown up the pipeline anyway. And the land pipelines would have been cut off to Germany by the Eastern Europeans. So no, the gas would not still be flowing with a high probability. That's so absurd.
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upvoteby bluGill31 minutes ago|
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If Germany had gone to war Ukraine would be split between Germany and Russia now and the pipeline would be running. It is absurd to think there was any possibility of Germany going to war on Russia's side, but the result of them doing so is far easier to predict.

Of course if they had done that other countries would likely object and so we can go on and on with what could have been (for starters the propaganda would be all different). There are no easy answers and we can never know what would have happened.

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upvoteby inigyou2 hours ago|
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Probably not directly invading, but there was a strong possibility of Germany supporting the Russian invasion, just as they're doing with the invasion of Iran.
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upvoteby RandomLensman1 hours ago|
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There was absolutely no possibility for Germany supporting the Russian invasion.
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upvoteby inigyou1 hours ago|
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Well I mean they already did support the invasion for a while by buying their gas.
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upvoteby igl1 hours ago|
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A strong possibility? Where do you get your news from?
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upvoteby netsharc1 hours ago|
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I think what grandparent is very very fucking poorly trying to say is, Germany/EU could've accepted the "annexation" of Ukraine like it did Crimea in 2014. "Bad Putin! But what can we do."
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upvoteby emsign52 minutes ago|
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That was never considered by anyone in German politics. It's the first time I'm hearing about this here in these posts.
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upvoteby bluGill29 minutes ago|
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People don't seem to understand hypotheticals. Of course it was never considered by anyone. There was no possibility anyone sane would consider it.

However we can still discuss what would have happened if they did.

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upvoteby 12391761 hours ago|
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That is a half truth. A turbine was broken, repaired in Canada, which required a lot of bureaucracy. Then the turbine was shipped to Germany. Then the Russians started their own bureaucracy and came up with excuses why the turbine could not be installed.

During that time Nord Stream was blown up.

The point is moot, since Putin has offered multiple times to open the remaining intact pipe:

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-urges-germany-...

And the broken pipes can be repaired, as was determined in the LLoyds lawsuit recently.

I'm not saying that reopening would be reliable, but it would be one diversification away from US and Qatar dependencies. The US just cut the EU off from Qatar gas.

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upvoteby pydry3 hours ago|
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Canada sanctioned the repaired gas turbines needed to operate NS1. They flip flopped on their decision some time later though.

This was spun as a Russian decision, but western countries were clearly trying to force Germany's hand.

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upvoteby Paradigma111 hours ago|
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If you take a look at ng prices you will see that the prices went up more than half a year before Russias invasion of Ukraine: https://www.macrotrends.net/3235/eu-natural-gas-prices The reason for this was because Gazprom stopped supplying the spot market and also bought storage capacity and kept it empty. All of that only made sense after the invasion to better blackmail Europe. It was their bad luck that China allowed them to attack only after the Olympics which took most of the force out of that blow. Anyway there was no sane way to continue this business relationship.
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upvoteby stefan_2 hours ago|
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And then Russia refused to install the turbine, proving it was a ploy all along. Like the maintenance in the first place. Which is why they acquired gas storage in Germany, then ran it low timed with their illegal war of aggression. This is a theme of course; Russia invented another gas crisis every few years with Ukraine. It should have been a warning sign when they settled them by taking payment in the form of Soviet-era cruise missiles.

The gas was never cheap, either; apart from the money spent now to restrain the military buildup and invasion it financed, even at the height of supplies it was much higher price than China is paying, a price sustained by Russia using military force and more to restrain other (Asian) countries from supplying to Europe.

(This was obvious to everyone, right? A single majority supplier nation state charging a cheap price out of the kindness of their heart? No, of course not; neither cheap nor kind. It was a monopoly, built on blood.)

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upvoteby pydry2 hours ago|
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They installed it and then they took the pipeline down for planned maintenance.

it's a little rich to accuse them of playing games with gas after the stunt Canada pulled and most especially after a western partner subsequently blew up the pipeline and blamed it on Russia.

Clearly certain western allies decided that Germany couldnt be trusted to make its own decisions about where Germany gets its energy.

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upvoteby RandomLensman2 hours ago|
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They reopened the pipeline after the planned maintenance. Then they said there was another issue and suspended supply indefinitely, and then the pipeline got destroyed.
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upvoteby stefan_1 hours ago|
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Prices going up 1000%? Time for maintenance!

If you want to see their approach to maintenance while prices and needs are high, watch them put oil refineries back in operation days after drone hits.

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upvoteby emsign48 minutes ago|
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Exactly! All routine maintance in Russian oil refineries are currently on hold indefinitely. Suddenly the Russians are capable of being more lenient.
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upvoteby pydry1 hours ago|
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"Our allies pushed our gas prices up 1000% how dare you not cancel your pre-scheduled maintenance!"
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upvoteby RandomLensman3 hours ago|
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I don't think the turbine that was serviced in Canada was causal there. The turbine thing was earlier, as far as I recall it. Gazprom announced its decision in early Sep 2022, btw.
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