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Fable is strongly believed to be around 10T. The most conservative estimate I've seen is 8T.

Eg: https://www.reuters.com/technology/bytedance-targets-mega-ai...

That reports Mythos as 8T and Fable as 5T, but I think they mean Opus as 5T, which is widely known, eg: https://eu.36kr.com/en/p/3760679047267075?ref=explainx

Both Grok and Bytedance are training 10T models.

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The fact that Musk claims Opus is 5T to justify why Grok is far behind should be taken with a massive grain of salt given he's a recidivist mythomaniac.

Honestly if Opus is 5T parameters while being matched by the biggest open models that are at least twice smaller, it would mean that the US is already behind China in the AI race, despite a significant edge in compute.

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The open models don't really match Opus.

For example I regularly do Fable+Opus agentic coding runs over 24 hours without intervention.

I think I've had GLM do a run that was a few hours. That's the closest I've had an open model come on that kind of work.

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Even if they don't match current-day Opus in everything, they do beat 6 month old Opus, which we have no reason to believe it was smaller than the latest version.
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Yes. And Opus goes a very long way compared to Fable, Anthropic isn't doing any favour, it's clearly just 2 models with a very different amount of parameters.
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Wasn't Opus ~1.5T and Fable is about twice that?
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> The cost to train and infer that would be insane, even by today's standards.

This assumption is likely what has led to the erroneous failure.

Enterprise compute per rack has scaled multiple fold in the last 3-5 years. Alongside the training efficiency gains & datacenter scale increases, even 50T+ is well within reach at the top end.

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Kimi K3 is a 2.8T model that's available at about 1/4-1/3 the cost of Fable from multiple providers on openrouter. The math doesn't seem wildly off.
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The raw margins on proprietary model inference are rumored to be quite high though (they have to successfully defray the entire investment into model training and datacenter capacity for inference, which is massive enough). The API cost you're paying for the model includes that raw margin.
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