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by serbuvlad11 hours ago |
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upvoteby enos_feedler9 hours ago|
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For this example, if you built a browser in 2000 it would put you in a great position to launch android in 2008. I think this is pg’s point. You spend all this time learning the interesting bits and when an inflection comes along that makes a new product or service possible you could be the one to likely launch it
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upvoteby paulryanrogers9 hours ago|
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Each new bet will be expensive and depend less on technical merit than luck and having a backup so your family doesn't starve.
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upvoteby fifilura8 hours ago|
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Agree.

FWIW I built browsers from 1999 for a long time. (But I was never a wunderkind, just somewhat tenaciously curious).

And I guess I am doing fine, but not amazingly rich or so.

Browsers were always a project closer to research/charity. I think Marc Andreessen said something similar - that he would never do that again. B2B is where you can make money.

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upvoteby chasd007 hours ago|
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That’s like saying if you can dunk in 8th grade you could be the next LeBron James. A LOT more things have to fall perfectly in place at the perfect time for that end result to materialize.
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upvoteby serbuvlad7 hours ago|
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I am talking from the perspective of the individual developer.

You don't need your impressive product to succeed to land a good career.

If Alice is doing LLM-from-scratch work today, and Bob is doing agent harness work today, Bob's project is far more likely than Alice's to become useful/popular/profitable.

But if neither project survives, in 5 years, Alice will be more employable/at a higher market rate than Bob.

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upvoteby bee_rider6 hours ago|
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Neither one has even gone to college yet. I’d expect Alice’s project to be more likely to interest professors, get some undergrad research experience, maybe that can turn into something.
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upvoteby liberian8 hours ago|
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This was his point. Being prepare to launch a produce when the opportunity comes.
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upvoteby zorked10 hours ago|
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There is an entire graveyward of browsers, almost all that didn't die are now forgotten.
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upvoteby serbuvlad7 hours ago|
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Sure, but I'm sure most of their lead devs are well paid now.

In general C++ work and similar, if not in Chrome development.

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upvoteby aswegs87 hours ago|
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cause != effect
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upvoteby XRG6 hours ago|
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There is a confounding variable, however -- the person is most likely a good dev. It stands to reason that they've had a decent career at least since then.
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upvoteby serbuvlad5 hours ago|
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Yes but as a dev you are shaped by the projects you work on.
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upvoteby sampullman10 hours ago|
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I think the point isn't that you'll necessarily build a great browser (or LLM), but the experience will benefit you in other ways.
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upvoteby antupis5 hours ago|
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Yup like you go far enought you will pick lots of transferable skills like data cleaning in the case of LLM, DOM parsing case of web browser or welding case of rocket.
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upvoteby paulcole10 hours ago|
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If any were built by teenagers, I’d imagine those teenagers ended up with pretty good careers in technology?
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upvoteby paulryanrogers9 hours ago|
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For every wunderkind that has a long career there's also plenty who are overlooked or peak early.
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upvoteby spolitry8 hours ago|
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Citation desperately needed.
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upvoteby paulryanrogers8 hours ago|
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Ken Silverman
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upvoteby endemic7 hours ago|
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I think he's doing fine? Sure, he got out of the video game industry, but that's for young people to burn themselves out.
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upvoteby paulryanrogers5 hours ago|
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I don't mean he's destitute. Just that he's no longer exceptional, which is fine.
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upvoteby paulcole4 hours ago|
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But you were trying to refute my point of:

> I’d imagine those teenagers ended up with pretty good careers in technology?

The guy you mentioned doesn't seem to have ended up with a bad career in technology?

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upvoteby paulcole8 hours ago|
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ken_Silverman

Is this the guy you’re talking about?

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upvoteby paulcole8 hours ago|
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Source: Sour Grapes
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