Then it’s an expert system.

Stephen Hawking wasn’t very good at folding clothes.

The ‘General’ part of the term ‘AGI’ seems like a trap to me, because there will always be new workflows to master. Can Astra one-shot level completion on some yet-to-be-released video game? If no, does that mean it’s not yet ‘Generally’ intelligent?

You won’t get pure ‘general’ intelligence until you find Einstein’s hidden variables and load the state of the entire universe into context.

Meanwhile, building a series of expert systems targeting specific valuable workflows is useful today and seems like it’ll continue to scale to cover huge swathes of economically valuable workflows.

I think that’s the more interesting thing to be measuring. The surface area of useful economic workflows that can be addressed with expert systems built with today’s tech.

Hitting some ‘Artificial Expert Intelligence’ coverage threshold on economically valuable workflows is what will matter for humans well before pure ‘general’ intelligence.

AI in math is ongoing. https://spectrum.ieee.org/ai-in-mathematics

Checkmate, meatbags.

And the only reason LLMs can't write essays indistinguishable from human output is because they aren't RLHF'ed to write like humans.

Folding clothes isn't an LLM's job but if you were to insist, they could certainly do it, as any number of videos from robotics labs will attest. That particular future is already here but definitely not evenly-distributed.

A lot of his great discoveries were mostly that he was very knowledgeable about the bleeding edge research in a number of disparate areas, and was able to have the aha moment where he could make the connections for how to integrate them.

A lot of other thinkers who created new fields from scratch are probably way harder for an LLM to crack.

That is very aligned with an LLMs ability to have superhuman knowledge in wide areas.