There is a lot of fear marketing about our text generators turning into Terminator. But other than the centralization of power, such fears are largely fiction. (Actual fiction, stuff like ai2027.)
And the labs know it: If Anthropic or OpenAI believed in their own narrative of being on the brink of world dominating superintelligence, they absolutely would not plan to IPO rn.
The slowdown narrative is probably just a hedge, or a face-saving way to lower expectations in case they can not keep improving at the same speed until they actually IPO.
What odds would you take on this bet?
I’m disturbingly close to 50/50.
That's like giving a gun to a monkey and hoping the monkey is trained well. ..a frontier monkey though.
The only way to secure infrastructure is to actually do the work needed to secure it. Our waste water treatment facility might not actually need to be able to tweet its status.
Cybersecurity is such an important topic for a country, dreaming about global alignment just to avoid fixing insecure infrastructure cannot be serious.
A Russian state backed hacker will not ask Dario for permission or argue with his LLM about ethics. That train departed long ago.
All decisions are made relative to their tradeoffs including costs and risks.
"Water levels rising 100x beyond historical levels are not the problem. The dam's height is the problem!"
All systems should be made infinitely secure and all dams should be made infinitely tall.
I do not believe this is a feature we can differentiate between the "good" and "bad" guys, as the US is currently under a poor safety regulation regime. Democracies can elect unethical people, write bad laws, and have uncertain enforcement. In example, the current US admin regularly lambasts Europe because they try to have stronger regulation.
(1984 has some thoughts on the matter)