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replyYou can buy long term put options.
replyThat still requires perfect timing. Getting the timing right on a long-term contract is even harder than with a short-term contract!
replyThe point of LEAPS is you don’t have to perfect the timing. You buy far enough out to avoid theta decay, and far enough out of the money to minimize risk.
replyRegardless of timing, for shorts to pay out requires the market to actually correct itself. You won't be able to get your magical shorts money until the price of ram goes back down anyway. The market will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
replyThe price of RAM does not need to come down in order for a way-out-of-the-money January 2027 put on NVDA to increase in value from its current purchase price.
replyHow does buying long term put options require perfect timing? The whole point of a long term put option is that you only have to be right at some point between when you buy it and when it expires.
replyNo, put options suffer from time decay. A $1,000 MU put for December 2027 was at about $200 today. So if Micron dropped tomorrow, you'd start making a bit of money, although the delta is only -0.32. But if you held all the way to December 2027, Micron would then have to drop all the way to $800 before your position is profitable.
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