If there was enough existing competition, that might be the right move, because if they don't increase capacity, a competitor probably would in order to gain more market share. But I think the barrier of entry for making RAM is high enough that Micron can probably get away with keeping supply low (and thus prices high) for at least a few years before a new competitor appears. Assuming demand stays high that long.
They have two massive DRAM fabs (56000 m^2 cleanroom size each) that they started construction on in 2022 and 2023 in Idaho, with production starting in 2027 and 2028.
I don't think it is possible to beat the fab construction delays. This isn't about things being slow in the US: TSMC took four years to go from site selection to some production at their Fab 22 plant in Taiwan (it is currently only 60% built out, is my understanding). And TSMC is best in the world at getting frontier (logic) semiconductor fabs built, it took them slightly longer (five years) for Fab 21 in Arizona. Logic fabs are not the same as memory fabs, but they are close enough to be a good comparison for timeline.
Basically, unless you started fab construction (specifically to make memory chips) in 2023 you cannot change production for 2027 and 2028. The only thing that will affect prices between now and 2028 is demand, production can't go up because the fabs to make those chips don't exist. If you started now you might get memory chips in 2031, and can you bet 40 billion dollars that the demand will still be there? (A current generation logic fab costs about 20 billion. By 2031 a logic fab will cost about 40 billion. I don't have prices for a current memory fab, but as I understand it they are comparable.)
But you are right someone will arbitrage the price, like scalpers selling concert tickets.
A well-known anticompetitive tactic is for a big player with a vast bank account to move into an area and eat losses while waiting for their competitors to starve. Well observed in the 90's movie rental market, so certainly real.
To successfully perform dumping, you have to have access to excess supply capable of disrupting that market.
So if that's the expected outcome, it might be better to prevent competitors from building factories in the first place.
(Legitimately asking: I don't know the answer ... but based on most US business law my strong suspicion is ... no, they don't.)
Also I was truly asking if they weren't aware in disbelief, since I assumed it was common knowledge.
The Memory cartel do not care about silly things like laws
These are billion dollar+ funded operations that take multi-years just to see if you can compete at the levels required.
All these comments show up every time, like there's a memory faerie land where you just put on your memory faerie hat and walla! Memory!
So bizarre.
In economics, "demand" doesn't mean "I want this", it means paid, funded demand. 100s of millions of "free" LLM users aren't funded demand, they're subsidized. This leads to front-running and scalping the silicon market at an unreal scale, it also monopolizes access to silicon and compute. Nothing happens by chance here.