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by cromka4 hours ago |
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upvoteby UncleOxidant4 hours ago|
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I remember in Summer 2007 feeling that there was an impending implosion coming based on the shady practice of using 2nd mortgages as downpayments - it had become a common practice. Started doing a bit of shorting (not too much), made a little, lost a little and then sort of lost interest in doing it just about the time things fell apart in '08. All that to say that these things can take a lot longer than you'd expect. You can look at the situation (like the circular funding as well as this article) and decide that yes it's not sustainable. But it can sustain longer than you expect.
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upvoteby cromka4 hours ago|
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Oh, I am well aware it's hard to time it. But still getting a general sense of the impending crash can help preparing in different ways. You can park part of your assets, not completely withdraw. Or pay extra for piece of mind by hedging them. Sure, it will cost, maybe won't be needed at all, or still misfired, but I'll sleep better with less anxiety, so that's still a win in my book...
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upvoteby surgical_fire3 hours ago|
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This is the thing about being right too early has the same effect of being wrong.

Which is why I hate when people criticize some obviously overvalued shit, and the response is "why don't you short it".

Sometimes the best way to be safe of something about to explode is to just get away from it.

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upvoteby dofm1 hours ago|
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Yeah. The thing is, we were being told that was a problem in late 2004 (this is when Max Keiser was writing and talking about the risks to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac; he and others saying this were written off as cranks, even though they laid out a pretty solid scenario that came substantially true.)

So yes, Oracle is likely a canary in the coal mine.

It can only really be seen as an indicator of hidden risks to the banks from exposure to the SPVs.

But how long it will take before the miners start dropping dead from the fumes, who knows. Could be years, could be a few weeks after the Anthropic IPO when people are sitting smoking on the steps to the helipad saying "what the fuck? No I mean, really, really. What the fuck!"

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upvoteby cromka32 minutes ago|
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Funny cause I also feel that a failed Anthropic IPO can trigger the domino effect. And I also t Feel this is why them and Open ai postpone so much. And shows how smart Musk was with rushing his IPO.
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upvoteby LoganDark3 hours ago|
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Yep, market can remain irrational for longer than you can stay solvent.
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upvoteby Grimblewald35 minutes ago|
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"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid"
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upvoteby Havoc3 hours ago|
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With these things it's not about spotting the signs but rather predicting the timing. Everyone and their dog can see the signs but that's not enough to be actionable
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upvoteby shermantanktop4 hours ago|
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If I knew the answer to that I’d go short some stock…and maybe not post about it.
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upvoteby mhitza4 hours ago|
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The big two AI labs are still not listed on the stock market, and SPCX is still above it's listing price. Unless you can remain liquid more than the market remains irrational better find some other use for your investment funds. No?
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upvoteby elorant3 hours ago|
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Just short Oracle and Coreweave.
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upvoteby PowerElectronix3 hours ago|
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My chop block list has those, plus micron, amd, nvidia, sandisk, western digital, skhynix, corning and marvell.

Those should really eat a lot of shit if any of the two ai companies stops buying everything no matter the price.

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upvoteby warkdarrior3 hours ago|
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Why Corning?
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upvoteby bigbuppo3 hours ago|
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They make the fiber optic cables and such that connect everything.
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upvoteby dragontamer4 hours ago|
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Depends on what price the banks offload at.

When the debt in 2007 sucked, it crashed the economy. But when the price was good in 2006, everyone celebrated.

Note: prices are getting worse for bonds today but nothing panic worthy yet.

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upvoteby marcyb5st3 hours ago|
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Not sure I agree. The credit default swaps have been extremely expensive lately, meaning that someone is already thinking about an AI bubble popping that will take private credit down which will make banks take a serious hit (11% of their outstanding loans are to linked to AI). On top of that we are in a time where the economy is propped up basically by AI spending and delinquencies on all sort of debt are at historically high rates.

I am panicking a bit TBH

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upvoteby popmakestheweas3 hours ago|
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oh ffs please
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