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by HexnMarcusWolfe5 hours ago |
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upvoteby ipdashc4 hours ago|
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> we'll all be around to see solar panels that cost 1/10th of what they do now

I get the impression they're already really damn cheap, to the point that the issues are more so with grid interconnections, land use, and storage

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upvoteby Maxion2 hours ago|
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Installation labour cost and inverter cost are now the largest expenses.

I wonder if as panel costs goes down, will people start to wire their homes again for 48V DC? You could conceivably run your HVAC and fridges at least off of it, this would negate the need for a larger (more costly) inverter.

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upvoteby greggsy1 hours ago|
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Unless you build from scratch, and white box stores suddenly start selling a 48v version of every standard household appliance (with industrial supply chain to support that market), inverters are not going anywhere.

The only place it makes sense is personal tech and computing, where USB chargers are cheap and ubiquitous, with technology replacement in 2-5 years instead of 5-10 for standard appliances.

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upvoteby novok1 hours ago|
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it would probably slowly start coming out as dual ac and dc connections and start with "garage appliances" like your laundry, central ac / vac and car charger since the garage is the cheapest place to wire something into.
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upvoteby cowlevel1 hours ago|
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Why not 120V DC?
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upvoteby Maxion1 hours ago|
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Mainly thinking 48V as that is already a standard in the marine and automotive world. AFAIK 120V DC is not a commonly used standard ? (Maybe in aviation?)
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upvoteby atoav1 hours ago|
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Most modern aircraft have a 400V 360-800Hz three-phase grid, as this allows thinner (read:lighter) conductors. There are some high voltage DC rails on some plains in the range 270VDC or ±270VDC.

On the usage side for instrumentation, avionics etc. it is usually 28 VDC.

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upvoteby pjc501 hours ago|
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50V is the limit for "safe extra low voltage" rules. Considered to be touch safe.
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upvoteby atoav1 hours ago|
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1. It is not considered safe voltage, so you have all the downsides of the current AC grid with the downsides of high DC voltages

2. Nearly no equipment uses 120VDC by itself, so you would need specialized DC-DC converters that can deal with the 120VDC input to go down to usual voltages like 48VD, 24VDC or 12VDC

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upvoteby inamberclad3 hours ago|
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Hopefully we can move to a micro solar system where everyone is responsible for a fraction of the generation and storage
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upvoteby micw1 hours ago|
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> we'll all be around to see solar panels that cost 1/10th of what they do now

I doubt that. Currently the cells itself makes only <50% (maybe <30% meanwhile) of a PV module. So the limit to the bottom is by the glass and frame and cable, not by the cells.

But $/watts can significantly go down with more efficiency.

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upvoteby LeonM1 minutes ago|
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I found most people fixate on the price of the cells/panels, but forget that the rest of the installation required to use said panels easily exceeds the price of the panels by a factor of 3~4. Think mounting hardware, cabling, inverters, batteries, control hardware, labour, etc. It all adds up.

I've been pricing a PV system recently, and I was surprised at how low the price of panels already is. In most estimates I received the panels itself were less than 20% of the total installation costs. Granted, I am looking at a 3-phase system with plenty of battery capacity. For a more typical household setup with 1-phase and moderate battery capacity that percentage will shift a bit.

In my case the quotes are roughly: 40x430Wp panels (~€4000), 3x (3-phase) inverter/chargers (~€5000), batteries (~€5000), auxiliaries (~€1500), cabling (~€2000), mounting hardware (~€2500), labor (~€5000), planning/permissions (~€1000). So total project price is ~25k, of which the panels are only ~€4000. And that doesn't even count the construction of a utility building to house the batteries and inverters, the EV chargers, etc.

On a side note: I found that battery prices have also dropped significantly already. If you're willing to do some assembly yourself you can get ~15kWh of LiFePO4 for just over €1k.

Also, for those wondering: for my situation the ROI of this setup is expected to be about 5 years. This will be quicker if I get an EV, which I am planning on.

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