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> Why do you believe human brains are magic?

We chose the problems to value. Literally every step of a proof is equally proved as the starting point. The choice of the starting point is what makes the problem, and it's a normative choice, which is to say it is a social choice.

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Why do you believe that LLMs are good at the same things humans are?
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I believe that we're investing trillions into making it so.
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We invested at least a couple trillion of speculative value into making ugly cartoon apes the future of art, finance and property. I'm not sure it's always possible to overwhelm reality with sufficient money.
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We didn't. Investment into it peaked at a few fractions of a percent of what's going into AI.

I would like to be optimistic about the whole thing falling apart, but I don't know that it will.

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I'm not saying it will "fall apart", I just think the burden of proof is on AI boosters for their extraordinary claims.

They are saying this thing will soon obsolete human thought; meanwhile I use these tools every day and can't get it to refactor a React app cleanly without making a mess.

It's telling that OpenAI's decided they're going to sell ads in ChatGPT. Instead of, you know, using their AI themselves to produce all these valuable and revolutionary breakthroughs they claim it's capable of making.

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Like how Anthropic has started to run their own biology labs?
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Probably wildly irresponsible given they think it's likely to kill everyone with a virus, but yes.

If you have a super-intelligent AI that can cure cancer, just sell the cure for cancer already?

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Medicine is a slow moving field. If they discovered the cure today how many years will it take to be certified as safe and effective by medical boards? More years than they have runway, in all likelihood.
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That's another way of saying the same thing: even if AI is great, there's all kinds of reasons why it won't be a new industrial revolution.

Intelligence is very rarely the limiting reagent in progress.

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It's not magical abilities - humans have proved for millenia that they can find novel solutions to problems - we have no idea how that comes to be though (which could be called magic I guess)

At issue with AI is that it's searching an existing corpus for fragments of solutions generated by humans - that's not necessarily novel, and we've not yet worked out how to make the machines actually invent.

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