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There's about 360 million domains (according to Verisign as of March 31, includes inactive sites as well) and if Cloudflare manages about 1/3 to 1/2 of them, that's like 180 million domains at most.

700 changes per second is 1.8 billion changes per month. I guess 10 changes per top level domain per month is quite low, which suggests a very long tail distribution, which makes sense, given that most websites are just a static page a business sets up once, with DNS changes maybe once every few years.

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412M domains registered worldwide

700 changes per second implies 15% of all domains are changing daily, which is almost certainly not the case.

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It's well possible that some people update DNS records for their own domain every minute.
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I can see 15% changing daily. There's all sorts of stuff being done with dkim and other anti-spam technologies that require a txt or cname or whatever change in DNS. Companies are always whitelisting vendors and mass mailers to send as them, validating domain ownership, adding new sub-domains, changing things for Exchange/365/Google/AI stuff, changing things due to a security audit, etc.

I imagine a renewal is a change event to, at least change the expiry, and renewals are constantly happening.

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> I imagine a renewal is a change event to, at least change the expiry, and renewals are constantly happening.

A domain renewal is an update at the registry, but there's no update in DNS at any level. If a domain expires, it would be removed (or at least changed) in the TLD DNS, but the authoritative DNS for the domain wouldn't necessarily update... it would just become orphaned.

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It's probably more like most domains barely change at all but some of them change a lot.
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