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But it does mean they thought about at least as much as they verbalised.
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Slightly difficult to disentangle is that they might be using the verbalisation as a way to explore depth, rubber-duck style, in a way that they wouldn't over the board.
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But you can still verbalize without saying the result of it. But yeah, it's still a question whether they would do so, but I think they do.
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Much of what's happening is less like 'calculations in the back of their head' and more like 'pattern recognition'. Chess masters are recalling ideas and motifs (not necessarily actual positions) from earlier games or practice or study, and this recall is allowing them to either prune the decision tree or prioritize investigating more fruitful branches faster than amateur players, who have to actually calculate things that are instantly 'seen' by the better players.

This is a known thing among chess players, and even low-skilled players do it to some extent. A newbie to chess can (and almost every teacher will say 'should') work their pattern recognition by just solving tactical chess puzzles and very quickly improve at spotting things like one or two move checkmate patterns or forks or pins or whatever.

It's more of a memory thing than subconscious calculation.

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> Much of what's happening is less like 'calculations in the back of their head' and more like 'pattern recognition'.

Sometimes it really looks like "calculations in the back of your head". Have you ever been struck with a 5 moves long tactics in positions you've never seen? Because I have.

There are hardly any other explanations than subconscious calculation.

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> It's more of a memory thing than subconscious calculation.

Would you make the move based on vibes alone in a non-blitz game? The calculation is still required and it is faster for those already familiar.

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Vibes is for the initial pruning, that’s why great chess players will sometimes see a computer move and ‘instantly’ realize why it’s so good but in a real game never consider it.
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