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> Open weight US based Opus 5.5 within 12 months.

Seems unlikely. Maybe open weight at all near there? That'd be great.

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People say this about the frontier every time, and the open models catch up in a matter of months every time.
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The open models catch up, the _US_ open models catch up much more slowly. Different incentives and cultures.
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Why does that seem unlikely? The difference between frontier and open weights has been much less than 12 months for a while now.
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US open weights are much worse, way more than 12 months apart compared to frontier.
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> Why does that seem unlikely? The difference between frontier and open weights has been much less than 12 months for a while now.

Frontier and open weights? Yes.

Frontier and _US_ open weights? No.

I'd expect a US open weights provider to suddenly get bought or go non-open if they get near Opus 5.5 anyway.

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Inception Mercury 3 and Particle-1's model are also good.

(I am assuming Inception is an American company, not sure TBH)

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Agree, Mercury 3 is one of my favorite models right now...the speed is such a quality of life improvement.
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May I add Poolside (Laguna S) to this? Used them extensively during their free trial (sadly now apparently over).-
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For my own purposes, I found Mercury Decide to be excellent. Better than Jev at what I threw at it. Inception did a really great job with it.
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Thanks for your review, 15 day old HN account that likes praising Mercury services.
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Really? I'm surprised. What do you use it for?

My read on Diffusion LLMs has been that it's cool tech, but only useful for things like like code autocomplete or editing a block of text.

They don't beat autoregressive models on quality per compute, assuming you are serving lots of users and can batch requests.

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I just use it for normal coding stuff.

It's not as good as the current frontier, to be fair. I don't use it to help me think through architecture, for example. But I have found to work well for at least like half of coding tasks once architecture and patterns are in place. Its advantage is that it's very very fast.

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MoA schemes that use proposers/task-separation/supervisory roles can still benefit from very fast diffusion models like mercury, the overall speed doesn't have to be bottle-necked by the slowest model -- that depends on the arrangement it's deployed in.

but to your point , yeah diffusion models can be kind of brain dead without proper coaxing.

my ideal arrangement is a smarter/bigger model supervising lots of proposals from diffusion models. The diffusion models spit out a big proposal each, the bigger model can vet something as minor as the headline or filename for each proposal, time still ends up being saved.

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Sorry to put it bluntly, but, Mercury is sh*t in comparison. And I have genuinely tried a few times to use it since the speed is so good. But nop.. it just isn't there.
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Muse Glimmer is pretty good.
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Could you give some examples what makes them good, thanks
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I give it 2.
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Things have been remarkably "not terrible" since approximately the release of Laguna S 2.1 a while back in early summer 2026, which is now outdated within the past 6 month time frame by other, better non CN open weight models.

I'm not saying that any of them are to the level as a deepseek v4.1 flash 1017 or similar but they're catching up. The most recent huge mistral release is also grounds for an optimistic view.

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That’d be the inflection point I’m waiting for!
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