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This. In my very uninformed opinion the only way we'll get useful SSTO is if we can get a meaningful amount of oxygen from the atmosphere rather than carrying it up in heavy tanks. The failure of Reaction Engines with their SABRE engine is disappointing on this front.
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It sounds good at the one sentence level. When you need to write more about the topic, the problem is that oxygen makes up only about 20% of the air. So you have need to accelerate all of this N2 that gives you nothing in energy and the result is a much lower Isp (specific impulse is the thrust per massflow, and all of that N2 is not adding anything to your thrust and increasing your massflow). And you need to be able to pull in enough air to get enough oxygen to drive your engine, so you need very large structures to move all of this unnecessary nitrogen around.

It is possible that only needing one tank rather than two can make up for the dramatic loss of Isp we see from an air-breathing engine and the air-handling structure, but no one has yet managed to demonstrate that, and the general consensus runs against it. I recall reading that HOTOL (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Aerospace_HOTOL) calculations were actually driven by an extremely light structure estimate rather than the airbreathing engine, to the point where if you plugged a rocket engine in they would actually get more payload to space as a SSTO, because those aggressively light structure estimates were doing all of the work.

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SpaceX is very close to demonstrating an architecture that ameliorates almost all of the drawbacks of two stage to orbit architectures. The tyranny of the rocket equation ensures that while a SSTO carrying all of it's oxygen is possible, it's never going to be able to carry enough mass to be useful.

Therefore nobody is ever going to invest the tens of billions required to develop a rocket based SSTO.

If somebody develops an engine that makes air breathing most of the way to orbit feasible, this has a chance of competing a Starship style architecture.

For the reasons you espoused, this is highly unlikely. However "highly unlikely" is more likely than "never".

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Jet engines have on the order of 10x the specific impulse of a chemical rocket.

Atmospheric density reduces exponentially with altitude, which implies that you would need to go exponentially faster to maintain mass flow into your engines and lift over your wings. The truth is that breathing air only gets you a third of the way to space, at best, so you have to have a rocket, and now you're battling that complexity. If your space plane doesn't breathe air, it probably is just better to punch your way out the way conventional rockets do.

Of course, the rocket equation is logarithmic, so reducing the amount of mass you loft gives you an exponential gain. This is true for all propulsion systems to an extent (different constants) but getting into space is the hardest propulsion problem we face. A space plane may or may not be better in this regard (it's been a while since I've looked into that kind of thing, so no opinion either way) but imo the inherent complexity is enough on its own to kill the idea.

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Only because traditionally the airplane industry measures specific impulse on just fuel flow, completely ignoring the oxidizer and atmospheric nitrogen. If you calculate like for like, including the air, jet airplanes have significantly worse Isp than a rocket engine.
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They get this fictitious specific impulse by scaling the effective exhaust velocity by a scaling parameter to account for the fact that the exhaust mass flow consists of extra mass (air), in addition to what is carried onboard (fuel). This specific impulse is still used for comparing jet engines based on efficiency. Another use for it is to calculate space mission requirements in launchers utilizing air-breathing engines in their first stage (as your parent commenter points out). Though such vehicles don't exist yet, there are concepts being pursued. Some of them use a scramjet and others are more elaborate like the (cancelled?) SABRE engine. So those Isps are not completely meaningless.

The general idea is that you can get much better results in terms of deltav if you can find at least part of the reaction mass from elsewhere without carrying it onboard. Even inert nitrogen is useful as a reaction mass. Another way to get a good result is to use separate sources of reaction mass and energy. Then use that energy to accelerate the reaction mass as much as possible, so that you get a decent deltav by the time you exhaust the reaction mass. This is what ion and plasma thrusters do.

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There are air-breathing rockets, some of the oldest were ultimately canceled soviet projects for road-mobile ICBMs (canceled for reasons AFAIK unrelated to air breathing concept), and the recent Meteor air-to-air missile
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Aren't rockets more powerful (as in energy/time) than rocket engines in that they are getting compressed/liquified oxygen out of a tank as opposed to taking the comparably tiny amount that passes into the intake of an engine?
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There are two performance parameters for a rocket/jet engine. The first is thrust and the second is specific impulse. You are thinking about thrust. The others in the tread are talking about specific impulse. Thrust is important for some stages, especially the early stage booster engines (as opposed to later stage sustainer engines). As a simple example, any space rocket will need a first stage with an enormous thrust so that it can lift itself, the subsequent stages and the payload off the launch pad. Additionally, the rocket has to finish its initial vertical climb as fast as possible. Otherwise the propellants will be wasted in just lifting off (this is called gravity loss). That will also require a high initial thrust.

However, the requirement of the high thrust disappears once you finish the vertical climb. There's no danger of falling back to ground once you reach orbit. What you need at this stage instead, is to add velocity (deltav) to the craft to change its orbit/trajectory. This can be done even at very low thrust, because you have all the time you need. The limiting factor now is that you have only a finite amount of propellant onboard. You want to add as much deltav as possible before it runs out. A high thrust doesn't help because the engine will simply consume the propellant faster and exhaust it before you get the required deltav. This is where specific impulse comes into play. The maximum deltav you can get is proportional to the specific impulse of the engine (see rocket equation for details). As you can imagine, high specific impulse is critical for space missions requiring high deltav, like the New Horizons spacecraft that imaged Pluto or the Parker solar probe (interestingly, getting to the sun is harder than escaping the solar system). Rockets/jets with low thrust and high specific impulse are called sustainers.

The general trend seen is that specific impulse drops off as thrust increases. For example, the space shuttle solid booster has Tmax = 15 MN, Isp = 268s, and space shuttle orbiter cryogenic engine RS25 has Tmax = 2.28 MN, Isp = 452s. Meanwhile, the NEXT xenon ion thruster used in the DART mission has Tmax = 236 mN and Isp = 4200s. Note that the thrust has changed from Mega newtons to milli newtons. You would hardly recognize it if the ion engine thrusted against your body.

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doesn't scale well. The amount of air entering is proportional to square - cross-section - while the mass of rocket is cubic. While scramjet/turbojet/air-augmentation, say as a separate detachable stage, can be pretty efficient for smaller rocket, anything making significant improvement for say Starship would looks like a fat monster cross-section-wise with tremendous hardware cost and weight loosing outright to the straight option of adding additional tanks and rocket engines.

Wrt. aerospike engine - sounds nice, yet hardware wise it is heavier than the classic engine, and just look at that large number of pieces - just all those small mini-engines - it is made of and compare to Raptor 3. And for the optimal expansion - i'm waiting somebody will add a dynamically adjusting telescopic kind of end section to the classic bell nozzle.

A napkin to illustrate. Lets say you add a Raptor and 80 tons of fuel plus oxygen for it. That will give you 100 seconds of excess impulse of at least 160 tons (240 ton of thrust minus 80 tons) at the beginning to 240 tons at the end, so roughly 100 seconds of 200 tons. To get 200 tons thrust you'd need 20 fighter turbojet engines capable of at least Mach 3 - that is cost, complexity and weight dwarfing that one Raptor engine.

For scramjet, assuming we got a decent one, napkin is about the same. The best, my favorite, is air-augmented - scram-compress the air and channel it on the outside of the hot bell nozzles of the already working rocket engines - unfortunately the scaling mentioned above comes into play for meaningfully sized rockets though it has worked great for small ones.

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There's been progress on scramjets for cruise missions. For acceleration missions, like launchers, scramjets make no sense at all.
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That really depends on how fast you can cruise. High speed scramjets above mach 15 will make space missions possible. The craft will be at the sufficient height and just enough speed, so that a rocket engine won't have to add too much deltav. Scramjets are still in their infancy. There are already developments on for variable-geometry multi-mode ramjets for this purpose.

PS: I have seen early-stage (but successfully tested) scramjets being developed for this purpose.

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I don't think any of the considerations you mention there change my conclusion.

We have to ask: what exactly is a scramjet vehicle delivering? It's enabling the use of air instead of liquid oxygen. But how valuable is this? LOX is the second cheapest industrial liquid after water. The fuel part of a rocket propellant combination typically dominates the propellant cost. If a scramjet launcher uses more fuel (especially hydrogen) than a rocket vehicle would, it will end up increasing propellant cost per unit payload to orbit. It will also likely increase propellant volume per unit payload to orbit, especially if LH2 is used (LH2 being just 5% of the density of LOX).

All scramjet launchers need a rocket to reach stable orbit (since a scramjet cannot produce thrust at apogee to circularize above the atmosphere. So one can ask, what the tradeoff between the delta-V this rocket provides and that of the scramjets? From what I've heard, all such trade studies end up optimizing to 100% rocket and 0% scramjet.

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As the other commenter already pointed out, it's the mass that's the limiting factor here, not the cost. The key idea here is that rockets and jets need two things - a reaction mass and energy. Scramjets and other air breathing engines don't just take oxygen from the atmosphere. They derive much of the reaction mass also from it. Even the inert nitrogen absorbs heat from combustion and acts as reaction mass. The primary purpose of the fuel onboard is to provide the energy. It's contribution as reaction mass is only secondary (note that this is for air breathing engines). This is very evident in the case of turbofan engines, where much of the thrust is contributed by the uncombusted air from the fan.

A scramjet stage will be very light compared to an equivalent rocket stage, since it carries only the energy source (fuel) and not the full reaction mass. If this scramjet stage is able to impart a velocity close to the orbital velocity by the time it reaches the upper atmosphere, the subsequent rocket stage will have much less work to do to get it into orbit. And that translates to much less propellants (including oxidizer) and much less mass in the upper stage. It's not necessary to collect oxygen from the atmosphere to see an advantage.

Obviously, the raising of the perigee at apogee is going to need this rocket engine again. There are no launcher concepts that depend purely on scramjets.

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What is the point of saving mass here? LOX is cheap, so it isn't the cost of the LOX. Does saving LOX make the vehicle cheaper? No... it increases the quantity of fuel needed, which (particularly if it's LH2) makes the empty vehicle much larger and more massive. This is doubly bad, since every last gram of that empty mass is taken to orbit, unlike the mass of LOX.

Minimizing fueled mass of the vehicle is a stupid thing to do. It's optimizing the wrong metric.

Scramjets also suffer from bad thrust/mass and thrust/$ ratios compared to rocket engines.

Overall scramjet launch vehicles are an example of pyrrhic engineering: even if one could make such a vehicle "work", no one would want it.

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LOX halfway to orbit is significantly more expensive than the same LOX delivered to the launchpad.

Its not the cost, its the mass you're trying to reduce. So far, the engineering challenges have made it unfeasible, but its not a surprise that people look at the hundred tons of LOX on a rocket and imagine exchanging it for payload (or aircraft style re-usability).

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A gram of oxygen that you carried to orbit is more valuable than a gram of oxygen you collect at that location: oxygen that you carried is moving at the same velocity as you.
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