upvote
In terms of SpaceX (the space portion of it) they've produced the cheapest way to get any payload into space. If you pay anybody else, you will overpay drastically depending on who you want to take your payload into space.

In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more about alzheimers, new antibiotics, precision targeting in oncology, using AI to flag healthcare anomalies in imaging. The benefits are easy to miss, but they're snowballing into place, there's definitely an explosion of useless crap, but you have to look for the real things and you will come to find, that AI is giving us things we otherwise either might not have discovered or wouldn't have within our lifetimes.

reply
I have yet to see an application outside of harnesses and LLMs itself where adaptation has happened on a larger scale. Devs are fine with babysitting their LLMs. People like to use LLMs to improve their mails and so on. But outside of that, the adaptation is not there yet.

Don't get me wrong. I love LLMs and use them myself. But the biggest gain for me is easier context switch and text manipulation. It's not the: replace X with a bunch of LLMs every CEO is dreaming of. So yes, you have higher productivity, but is the eval of those companies legit? x doubt.

reply
I just gave you several non-dev examples of how AI is used or has achieved things we could only dream about. Not to mention how Qualia is using it within the Real Estate sector.

https://cloud.google.com/customers/qualia

reply
Markets value future cash flows, not today's cash flows.

By the time you see the applications, the market will have moved on to value the next set of future cash flows.

If the market only valued the obvious, investors would jump in to buy the price up, until it met the average expectations.

The market might be wrong, but the question is not: "Have you yet to see?", but rather, "What do you see in the next three to five years?"

Otherwise, how could investors ever invest in a startup?

Startups never have revenues to justify their initial valuations.

It's a bet on the future.

Investors are future looking.

Consumers are present looking.

We didn't see LLM harnesses coming even two years ago. Now they generate billions per month.

Investors can't wait until reality materializes to make their estimations of the future.

That's why investing is hard.

You have to try to predict the future.

reply
> Markets value future cash flows, not today's cash flows.

Sir, this is a casino/Keynesian Beauty Contest.

Markets value what the market participants think the other participants will value. On occasion, this intersects with reality.

reply
One third of all software code is written by AI. At the frontier AI labs it's 80%+. It has completely upended the software industry. How is that not a massive adaption?
reply
> One third of all software code is written by AI.

I find it interesting that using lines of code as a metric is making a comeback.

reply
The number of lines of code doesn't matter any more. A better metric is AI-assisted commits, which has the same statistics.
reply
I mean if there are more bugs there are more commits no?
reply
You couldn’t have picked a better argument to show how this bias is exactly what’s making tech people think this shift is ubiquitous. “It works extremely well for coding, in which I am a domain expert, so why wouldn’t it work for all the other domains I absolutely know nothing about?”
reply
ChatGPT has 700 million users. What do you think they are using it for? It's upended entire industries.

How many millions of emails do you think are composed using ChatGPT? How many legal briefs were reviewed by AI? How many businesses use AI generated art? How many kids do their homework using ChatGPT?

The GP is arguing that AI has struggled to replace humans, but in so many roles AI is doing the heavy lifting and humans are copying its output.

reply
Which “entire industries” has ChatGPT upended?
reply
The entire education industry, so many students ask ChatGPT to help with their homework, and lots pass it off as their own work. Many students have quit going to office hours & tutoring, and ask AI for personalized answers instead. The education industry has no answer, and is struggling to deal with this.

The homework "help" industry (i.e. paying for answers) is dead. Chegg stock fell 99% because of ChatGPT.

Stock photography is rapidly dying, nobody will pay for shutterstock when ChatGPT can generate a passable image for free.

ChatGPT is killing studio photography, it can generate great looking studio photos for free.

Same with basic graphic design / custom art commissions.

SEO / copywriting has been almost fully replaced by AI. Companies no longer pay writers to churn out SEO slop, and now the web is full of AI generated SEO spam.

Customer service as a job is dying and is rapidly being replaced by AI chatbots.

I can go on, but these are the major ones.

reply
You have no data to support what you're saying, you sound anecdotical, and on top of these flaws in your argument, you proceed to make a point mentioning "industries" that are neither formally upended, nor at all significant in the great scheme of things in terms of value produced or perceived. I believe the education industry is fundamental and one of the most important industries in the world, but it hardly moves markets, nor is filled with high-paying customers.

On top of that, you are showing another stark bias in considering the US experience as the global experience. It is not, and education in particular works way differently, aka, it's not a business wild west.

Cognitive surrender in writing emails is another shaky ground: do you honestly think that AI's worth the tens of trillion the tech bros are claiming it'll be worth as a glorified email-maker?

I will add that my point still stands. If you say this:

>>ChatGPT is killing studio photography, it can generate great looking studio photos for free. Same with basic graphic design / custom art commissions.

the only point you're proving is that you don't understand shit about photography as a business, nor about design as a business. AI is being rapidly integrated, for sure, but it has not upended those industries, and the average mediocrity it produces (because of its very nature) is not even close to replacing what you claim it is.

reply
You have no data to support what you're saying, you sound anecdotical, and on top of these flaws in your argument, you have shifted the goalposts, to the point that you don't even know what you're replying to.

You asked about data, and I have it, and here it is: Chegg's CEO explicitly stated in their earnings call that ChatGPT was directly responsible for their collapse. Chegg stock fell 99%. You can verify this fact yourself. ChatGPT led to the near-destruction of a $14 billion company.

On photography and design: your counterargument is entirely assertion. You're claiming I don't understand those industries without demonstrating that you do. There is demonstrable fact AI has absolutely upended both industries. AI has gutted the commodity tier that constitutes the vast majority of revenue volume. Product shots, website graphics, social media content, marketing material. AI produces this content for free, at a quality so good that millions of people don't realize it's created by AI. You only consider the high-end, professional market, which so far has been relatively untouched.

Your only valid criticism is that my argument is US-centric. Fair enough. But ChatGPT has 700 million users globally, and you've produced zero evidence that non-US markets are insulated from the trends happening in the US.

Chegg shares drop more than 40% after company says ChatGPT is killing its business https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/02/chegg-drops-more-than-40perc...

reply
It doesn't even work that well for coding.

Otherwise Github wouldn't have 14% down time in the last 3 months.

reply
[dead]
reply
Because it doesn’t work without me
reply
What is a larger scaler for you? What is "outside harness an LLM"?

What is _the proof_ if all the proofs are not _proofs_?

I don't babysit my LLM based services which are used by coaches and clients around the world. One of my LLM based solution get 30-4k daily hits and I have users coming back on the regular to use it. without babysitting, doing things that would take them hours of manual work and research.

I don't babysit the developers I work with and our clients, which both use LLM's themselves and at scale with their clients, serving all kinds of LLM powered services to millions of users worldwide.

You are not "seeing" the large adoption because:

- The technology is "a few years old" in its usable state - The corporate adoption cycle is slow - You have to understand the technology to use it in a good way, which most corporate devs and PM's do not

So it will take a bit for the "obvious" adaptation on large scale.

But you won't "know" when the large adoption happens.

Silent inference is growing every day, and that is what real adoption looks like - not an LLM being in your face chatbox, but running in the background, sorting, finding, fixing things, aligning data, figuring out analytics, tuning the ads, cleaning the datasets.

reply
> In terms of AI, we've seen even here on HN everything from mathematical problems that remaind unsolved, being solved, mathematical proofs being used to disprove theories, heck we even learned more about alzheimers

What a story this is

reply
What part is wrong?
reply
Isn't AI routinely making significant mistakes in analyzing medical imaging?
reply
My understanding is that it’s better than doctors themselves. But it’s probably the same as with autonomous driving: the bar isn’t just “be as good as humans”, it’s “be flawless”.
reply
It’s actually quite a lot worse than even doctors in training except for highly constrained experimental settings and a few very nice applications that are mostly too tedious/impractical for a human to do or are very basic detection tasks.

I am a radiologist and researcher predominately focused on AI.

reply
I work with pathologists and radiology is way ahead of us with AI use in clinical setting (but still not very far). Only things that get serious use are lab-developed (ie not commercial) image analysis algorithms for very limited (tedious, error-prone and ultimately not that often used) biomarkers. Don't believe the hype.

You could also look at the market, one of the biggest players, Paige, was acquired for about 30% of the money they raised.

reply
First I'm hearing that is a lot worse - do you have sources? Genuinely curious
reply
The better question is are there any sources that AI is better than human readers? I haven’t heard anyone make this claim outside of single/few disease classification tasks and even those are mostly 2D.

Anecdotally, my practice has most FDA approved AI deployed as we are an evaluation site and very rarely is the AI result useful. Over the past few months we have been cancelling contracts as these cost quite a lot of money (in some cases eating >50% of the study interpretation cost) for little to no benefit and a LOT of noise.

reply
Thanks for the informed take :)

Do you think this will result in more routine/boring/tedious tests? Is the bottleneck on these things the human time to analyse them?

reply
I don’t think so, not beyond the current trend in medicine which is going up anyway.

For some things, like 3D volume segmentation of structure or disease (e.g. CVA/stroke volume, cardiac muscle mass, iron quantification) the bottleneck is the time it takes so we currently use approximations like single longest dimension, circular regions of interest, etc. AI will dramatically increase accuracy allowing for more accurate treatment and easier large scale research with quantitative endpoints.

Other things people think of like detection of aneurysms, fracture, lung nodules are not “hard” but AI has already added and will continue to add the second-reader benefit which will reduce detection errors. For this category the clinical benefit is as of yet unclear and we know that increased detection does not necessarily translate into improved patient outcomes and can in fact make them worse from over-diagnosis which means investigation related harms and over-treatment.

We were already in a phase of “over detection” in much of radiology with advances in imaging technology so the incremental benefit of current AI remains to be seen and I personally think is going to be much more limited. I had a case recently where a 2 mm brain aneurysm was missed on 3 CT scans over 10 years but was picked up by AI so now is being followed annually. This is too small to treat considering the risks and a serious argument could be made that 10 years of stability is proof enough that this is almost certainly clinically irrelevant for this patient.

Far more interesting areas of AI in imaging are in acquisition of acceleration (i.e. the medical equivalent of upscaling) which can dramatically decrease costs and increase accessibility as well as analyzing imperceptible features.

It may not be a popular take here but in my opinion the future of radiology is like what we see in software engineering today - a skilled human equipped with AI will outperform humans without AI and AI without humans, the latter of which we are still several years away from prototyping due to various technical hurdles.

reply
Thanks :) Very interesting.

> in my opinion the future of radiology is like what we see in software engineering today - a skilled human equipped with AI will outperform humans without AI and AI without humans

I suspect this will be the case across the board. It's a useful tool, but it's just a tool. It's not a replacement.

reply
A friend of mine, a dermatologist, told me that LLMs are quite performant for melanoma analysis. Based on their own statistics, LLMs are able to beat humans with ~10 years of experience in the field.

They will never beat the human instinct tho, but they can be great tools sometimes. Unfortunately, LLMs mostly produce garbage.

reply
Whenever it comes to medical diagnosis I would caution anyone to be careful with what “beat humans” really means.

In real life pathology is a spectrum not a binary and physicians are not trained to be 100% accurate instead optimizing sensitivity and specificity considering pretest probability as well as the harms of overdiagnosis and under diagnosis for a given scenario.

For something like melanoma which is relatively easy to diagnose with a superficial, extremely low risk skin biopsy and where early staging dramatically improves outcomes you would want to design around overcalling (high sensitivity) rather than maximize accuracy given the significant harms with false negatives and minimal harms with false positives.

An AI may be more accurate at classifying melanoma/not melanoma but if it does not meaningfully improve on the clinical threshold of biopsy/no biopsy or result in less biopsies that accuracy is wasted and may even be detrimental.

Note: I am just using this as an example to illustrate the considerations.

reply
deleted
reply
I don't think your friend understands Large LANGUAGE models.
reply
You do realize that today’s multi-modal LLMs are actually able to understand images? They’re tokenized very much like language is.
reply
Last time I checked thoroughly (roughly two years ago), AI (in the form of small ML models) mostly outperformed radiologists in areas where the gold standard is "one level" above imagining wise. By that I mean that you train a model to detect on an X-ray what would normally need a CT. Or train it to see on a non-contrast CT what would normally need contrast or an MRI, or biopsy, and so on.

Essentially the cutting edge reaches up to 99% of human performance on the task it is trained, which is good enough for triage but not for a final diagnosis. However, magic sometimes happens when you train a model to detect something, which you already know is there, on an examination that is cheaper, faster or less invasive than the human"gold standard". Conveniently, this dataset exists since it's common to first do a cheap examination like an X-ray, and then escalate if nothing is found (or if something is found that you want to see better, or a number of other possibilities).

Examples of AI outperforming humans like this includes AI detecting sacral fractures on x-rays better than radiologists (who normally take a CT to conclusively exclude it), detecting potential precursors to pancreatic cancer on non-contrast CTs (where contrast or an MRI is usually required) and detecting an occluded coronary artery on an ECG without the archetypical "ST-elevation changes".

See the link below for references: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9478257/ https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02640-w https://rebelem.com/a-winning-hand-in-cardiology/

So AI, as a general rule, doesn't usually match or exceed the upper bound of the "gold standard" medical performance. But it tends to carry the quality of the upper bound downwards towards the faster, less expensive and invasive methods. In some cases, like in the case of EKGs, that's huge. In some cases it saves time, in some cases it decreases miss rates from tired radiologists or triages their review feed. And in some cases it's not very useful.

LLMs doesn't come close to specialized radiology models at the moment, because LLMs are more about applying knowledge than creating new correlations. Of course that's also hugely useful, but that's a bit of a different topic to unpack.

reply
With these kinds of things, I want to see comparisons to trained, alert humans. Cut out all the distracted, stressed, tired, incompetent, intoxicated cases from the baseline. That includes rushed doctors at the end of a long shift.

A self driving car doing better than a drunk on the freeway doesn't reassure me that it'll do better than sober me in a snowstorm.

reply
That would be a fine bar if you could ensure your doctors or nearby drivers aren't distracted, stressed, tired, incompetent, or intoxicated.
reply
How does sober you in a snowstorm cause the drunk on the freeway not to drive?
reply
Non sequitur. The core idea is that if you have just self-driving cars you won't be trained enough to drive properly next time you're caught in a blizzard, because you never drove for the last 5 years.

I also question if the kind of person who actually drives while drunk - knowing perfectly by thousand of society inputs and peer pressure that it is wrong - will care enough to buy a self-driving car.

reply
It doesn't, but I'm not going to trust my own safety to a self driving car that can only be said to be better than the worst drivers. It's a bad baseline.
reply
What are the premiums like for this AI radiologists malpractice insurance?
reply
I’ve seen the same. But I don’t see that as a glowing beacon of progress.

A whole lot of doctors, if not most, didn’t pick their profession out of an interest in medicine…

reply
It’s so good it even sees things that are not there!
reply
Do those help starving or homeless people? I don’t think so.
reply
People want to buy SpaceX, not Twitter, Tesla, xAI. Unfortunately Elon has been conflating the three.
reply
Plenty of people want to buy Tesla. Not saying they're prescient, but the market cap represents that.
reply
deleted
reply
You'll overpay -- but not by trillions.
reply
On one order, correct, but it's still on the order of hundreds of millions to billions.

Also, keep in mind that a stock price discounts expected future cash flows. Is it likely that SpaceX will have a near-peer competitor within a few years? No, it's not, and that market share is being priced-in.

reply
Is it likely that SpaceX will have actual reasonable demand? Their major customer is Starlink. How legitimately confident are we in the numbers with regard to price reduction vs creative accounting to offload costs to Starlink and subsidize the launches to appear to offer huge cost reductions?

If there exists sufficient demand for the product of space launches then it's probably reasonable to expect their to be a near-peer competitor soon, but that's only if SpaceX were to be profitable, which it isn't, even with the subsidization by Starlink on the order of many billions.

reply
> If there exists sufficient demand for the product of space launches then it's probably reasonable to expect their to be a near-peer competitor soon

Space is not that easy. Even with unlimited money, it'll probably take 10 years to build a rocket like starship. Going from nothing to orbit needs a lot of money but more money doesn't make that faster.

reply
There is about 3 chinese orbitallaunchers with some reusability support flying & about as much scheduled to debut this year.

But other than that, yeah - outside of China, progress has been horrendously slow & Blue Origin, the only other US company that demonstrated a partially reusable rocket just had a devastating pad explosion, destroying one of their 2 rockets and their only launchpad.

reply
Sure but SpaceX can get you into orbit for $1400 per kilogram, and future projection and goal is $100 per kilogram. The competition is at $15,000 per kilogram. I think it's a no-brainer for anybody trying to get anything into orbit. Unless someone figures out superior tech that surpasses SpaceX, I'm just not seeing why anyone would spend more for less capable and costly rockets.
reply
Doesn't SpaceX charge 2 to 3 times their internal cost to external customers? ISRO is still more expensive, IIRC they charged ~US$60 million (roughly $6000/kg) for the OneWeb launches whereas after the recent price hikes SpaceX is supposedly charging ~US$74 million on a larger rocket (~$4200/kg), but that's far from an order of magnitude difference like your comment suggests, which I assume would be using the $25 million they charge Starlink internally (IIRC ISRO's internal cost is much higher, around $40 to 50 million, but that's still not anywhere near an order of magnitude). Using internal cost from one provider and external price for another is somewhat misleading.
reply
> future projection and goal is $100 per kilogram

This can't be treated as meaningful, given other projections and goals (Mars colony, etc.).

reply
how many packages have you shipped so far to space? SpaceX could disappear tomorrow and most people wouldn't notice. Your satellite TV might get slightly more expensive. Those rare people that don't have LTE internet access and need starlink are exception.
reply
deleted
reply
At the rates you quote, $1 T (the size of the market) is 714,285 tons of stuff in the space each year. I don’t think there is enough space in space for that much cargo.
reply
Let me introduce you to the 30 km long rotating O'Neill Cylinder: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O%27Neill_cylinder

Although realistically this will be built from lunar materials, you still need to lift a lot of mass to build the necessary industrial processing and mass drivers to launch it from the Moon to some Lagrange point.

And there are many other useful space megastructures that can be built in space from common materials, like giant solar arrays beaming power down via microwaves: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space-based_solar_power

Most of these proposals date from even 1980s.

reply
I guess for a trillion dollars vine can built Elysium. Generating solar power in space (vs. on the ground) makes as much sense as running AI inference in data centers in space.
reply
> they've produced the cheapest way

Were we struggling to do this before? Was the overall percentage reduction in costs? Was some other achievement held back because we couldn't accomplish this? What is now enabled?

> to get any payload into space.

A limited set of payloads into space. No vehicle can get "any payload" to space at a fixed price.

> The benefits are easy to miss,

You've listed a bunch of reasons to publish papers. What is the actual ground level change that's occurred? Are those antibiotics produced? Do they actually work just as predicted? Why is that first world problems are exclusively listed but basic problems like world hunger are never even approached?

> or wouldn't have within our lifetimes.

And your life, your actual life, benefits, how?

reply
> Were we struggling to do this before?

We literally couldn't.

> Was the overall percentage reduction in costs?

Starship will bill NASA 1/20th what SLS does.

> What is now enabled?

LEO. Artemis. Out of all of these companies, being confused about SpaceX is super weird.

reply
If SpaceX was only Starlink or only Starlink and rockets it would be an horrible circumvention of the rules.

But now he's also trying to get the indexes to pay for the giant cash fire called X.ai and the far right huddle Twitter too.

I have zero interest in owning anything of either of those companies.

reply
Granted, I only skimmed some high-line numbers, but isn't their only profitable project Starlink? SpaceX is functionally a satellite internet company that happens to make rockets.
reply
> isn't their only profitable project Starlink? SpaceX is functionally a satellite internet company that happens to make rockets

Yes. The thing that’s going public is almost entirely an AI play.

reply
They seems to have decent revenue leasing compute to Anthropic.
reply
> Starship will bill NASA 1/20th what SLS does

Is that before or after the program achieves profitability?

reply
I think you missed the core of their question: What has actually gotten better in practical terms for the average American?
reply
> What has actually gotten better in practical terms for the average American?

Starlink has made connectivity cheaper and more available. Earth imaging has made various food production processes more efficient. Weather forecasts have become more accurate.

If you’ve genuinely missed the massive economy that LEO has become, it will be a fun thing to catch up on.

reply
> Starlink has made connectivity cheaper and more available.

Yeah that's working out great for the average American isn't it (https://natlawreview.com/press-releases/2026-consumer-trust-...)

> Earth imaging has made various food production processes more efficient.

I'm not even going to bother sourcing the fact that food prices have only massively gone up negating any gains in productivity. The average American struggling to buy basics like eggs and meat aren't feasting on more efficient food production.

> Weather forecasts have become more accurate.

I'm sure the growing homeless population is happy to know they can better predict the weather they'll be sleeping in.

This is all totally worth supporting a nazi billionaire

reply
> that's working out great for the average American isn't it

Yeah. It did. My neighbour’s rates went up. He switched to Starlink.

> not even going to bother sourcing the fact that food prices have only massively gone up negating

This is like arguing fertilisers are useless because prices went up.

> homeless population

Not super relevant!

> all totally worth supporting a nazi billionaire

Nobody said that. But it doesn’t mean the benefits go away.

reply
weather forecasts is really good right now (in my experience forecast for rain/cloud cover/wind speed at hour granularity is amazingly good) and earth imaging for food production has been done for decades. I do not think SpaceX has improved nor will improve on these.

SpaceX’s main customer is Starlink. With that in mind: if Starlink takes over all the ISPs in the world its market value should be comparable to Comcast - $89 Billion.

reply
> do not think SpaceX has improved nor will improve on these

It has massively improved both. The cost, resolution and frequency of imaging has decreased alongside launch cost.

> if Starlink takes over all the ISPs in the world its market value should be comparable to Comcast - $89 Billion

Why? Comcast isn't "all the ISPs in the world." (And Comcast doesn't get defence contracts to build and maintain military networks.)

reply
Do we apply a bar this high for any other company/job/business? Saving gov/tax money aka "billing NASA 1/20th what SLS does" doesn't count as worth it to you?

Reusing rockets reliably rather than "throwing them away" is a great achievement and I'm surprised people have to justify it on HN

reply
> Reusing rockets reliably rather than "throwing them away" is a great achievement and I'm surprised people have to justify it on HN

You can milk a cow only a set number of times!

reply
Yes, because you're not designing the cow. Progress on rocketry (and reusability) is not completed, btw, there's a lot still to improve.
reply
Stock prices indicate the present value of all future dividends, so it's not about what has happened but about the risk-adjusted expected value of all which is to come.

What probability you assign to arrive at that expected value and how you adjust for risk is on you.

reply
Sorry but SpaceX has done absulutely nothing for space other than take billions in GOV funding and never delivering what they promised years ago. Hell the only cargo they ever shipped was a banana...
reply
They've shipped lots of satellites into low earth orbit, that's their starlink business and it's where all of the revenue in spacex comes from, and it is a good business in itself.
reply
Comments like these make me feel like we're living in different worlds. I use LLMs multiple times a day and they've significantly improved my quality of life. They are also steadily becoming more useful over time (e.g. now solving math problems).
reply
I suppose many do live in different worlds.

I haven't found anything out of LLM's that has improved my life. It was a fun little toy but could never find a use case. But clearly, your mileage varies greatly from mine. That's cool.

I just personally don't the use in more when what I think many need is less. But that comes from essentially this point of view - “Better than a thousand hollow words is one word that brings peace.” ― Buddha

reply
I use LLMs daily, both as chat applications and "vibe coding".

I wouldn't say it "significantly improved my life" however. Everything AI has done for me right now is a "Nice to have" but it doesn't fulfill my needs.

reply
I do too, and pay $200/month, but anthropic’s margins on that revenue are negative.

What’s the long term plan? Make it up on margin? 100% tariffs on Chinese open weight models?

I don’t plan on pulling from my 401k for decades, so the long term plan is the part I care about.

reply
Enterprises are paying API prices, which are ~9x the price of the plan for the same usage. A lot of people on the plans are not maxing them out either.
reply
Why would Anthropic margin's be negative? Inference is practically free for them, so what costs do they have for an additional subscription?
reply
amortized training costs
reply
It’s because people value different things. I could not care less if LLMs make me push code faster to prod. Couldn’t care less if they improve my emails grammar. Couldn’t care less if they crack one unsolved math problem.
reply
You do not care about these things in general or it's the idea that an LLM is involved that makes you not value them?
reply
deleted
reply
I’d love it if for once someone on here saying LLMs are some life changing apparatus would give a single example.
reply
My wife was diagnosed with several chronic conditions in the last year. AI tools both diagnosed her before a doctor did (which helped us find the right docs to care for her by figuring out what to look for). One of her conditions (Mast Cell Activation Syndrome) comes with a ton of dietary restrictions. Its helped us immensely in planning meals and identifing food triggers. All of this would have possible with out AI as a tool but would have led to much more pain and suffering and likely taken much longer to figure it out. It's easy to dismiss (especially given the hallucinations) but it's been legitimatly life changing over the last year
reply
I can give some recent examples.

- Significantly increased my productivity as a software engineer.

- Using it daily for Chinese-English translation. Significantly better than pre-LLM translation software. Also, great at teaching grammar, nuances, etc.

- General Q&A. Like "Googling" but much faster. This is probably the most common use case for me.

reply
> - Significantly increased my productivity as a software engineer.

This is exactly the point that keeps coming up that folks are struggling to grasp, myself included. How are you measuring this? It certainly makes me feel productive, but I'm not sure I can confidently say it has actually made me more productive. It's made the easy stuff a no-brainer (e.g. boilerplate, simple logic) and the moderate stuff really hard. Never mind the hard stuff. Vetting the code has become a whole other job on its own. The only folks I've found who confidently claim it increases productivity appear to be online (and without evidence), because no one in person is willing to claim that and show it.

reply
I can agree with the skeptics that LLM generated code is usually crap. I rarely accept its output without significant edits unless it's truly boilerplate, and I want to avoid the need for that kind of code in the first place.

For me, the killer use case is debugging. I hate wasting time debugging something that should work except for mistakes, and now I do that probably 75% less than I used to because AI does it for me.

I don't know if it makes me that much more productive, but I certainly enjoy my work more not having to do as much tedious debugging, and it feels like I waste a lot less time doing it.

reply
I've been able to build things that I otherwise would not have been able to build, in the free time that I have:

- a VST audio plugin

- a wedding website with RSVP functionality

- a relaxing game for my wife

At work, I've been able to build much more than I would have been capable of in the past. I'm a backend eng, and it allows me to build much much nicer frontends than I've ever been able to do in the past.

And before you tell me that the code is crap - it doesn't matter! It may or may not be good code, but it works and serves it's purpose very well. Anyways, I'm I'm not launching a rocket, or putting software into cars.

reply
I'll share my experience.

I've never been a developer. Dabbled in frontend web for a bit (HTML/CSS/JS, no large frameworks) and felt like if I really dedicated some time to learning how to code, I'd be pretty decent at it. It's always intrigued me, and I've always had an itch to build things, but just never found the time. I'm in marketing now - I own an agency.

Over the last 6 months since the coding models really began to step up and get good, I've built several dedicated apps to support my business:

-Profitability optimizer and forecaster based on unit economics and current ad efficiency.

-Creative strategy tool that ingests brand and product data and helps explore primary and secondary personas and emotional motivators.

-Reporting tool that processes natural language queries and connects to multiple data sources to fetch results. Can schedule reports to post directly to Slack or email.

All robust and hosted on Railway. Team members can use them. Clients can use them. OAuth via Google.

Would any of this have been possible for me before the rise of frontier LLMs? Absolutely not. Learning the frameworks alone would have taken me longer than it's taken to just... build. Rapidly build and deploy. Total game changer for me.

Oh - and I'm building a game on the side. LLMs know Godot.

reply
> It's made the easy stuff a no-brainer (e.g. boilerplate, simple logic) and the moderate stuff really hard. Never mind the hard stuff. Vetting the code has become a whole other job on its own.

Not everyone has the same requirements, skills, usage patterns, and outcomes. It's that simple.

reply
> How are you measuring this?

I attempt a programming task with and without LLM assistance. The attempt with LLM assistance is pretty much always completed faster and cleaner.

Another example: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43991777

reply
How much faster? How much cleaner? What tasks are you accomplishing?
reply
I linked to an example in the comment. In that particular case, I'd say probably 10-20x faster. I do embedded, backend, web and mobile app development.
reply
I also notice these things. Otoh i spend definitely less than 50% of my time typing in code so it is impossible that it gives more than 2x speedup. And sometimes i lose time babysitting and rewriting stuff so all in all it is kinda no productivity gain.
reply
Can someone bring this man a cup of Kool-Aid, stat?
reply
> Significantly increased my productivity as a software engineer.

You’re going to have to define productivity as it applies to software engineering. With LLMs we’ve primarily seen the number of PRs over time being discussed as a proxy for LoC, as well as the speed of bootstrapping a small project. None of these have a known correlation with economic output. They just feel good, to the programmer, their manager, or both.

> Using it daily for Chinese-English translation. Significantly better than pre-LLM translation software. Also, great at teaching grammar, nuances, etc.

Yes dealing with language is the one area LLMs are actually designed for. But what’s the TAM for machine translation?

> General Q&A. Like "Googling" but much faster. This is probably the most common use case for me.

And now you’re missing any kind of traceability for the information that you “learn,” since it all gets spaghettified and then recombined into a pile of plausible slop with no attribution. Where before you had to do slightly more work to find the information you needed, now it’s available faster but you’re at complete mercy of literally 3 American companies plus the CCP for the accuracy of that information. Most people somehow seem happy with this arrangement.

reply
> You’re going to have to define productivity as it applies to software engineering.

I meant it in a colloquial way. I just get more done, faster.

> And now you’re missing any kind of traceability for the information

Modern LLM assistants provide sources and references. While it can sometimes be just "slightly faster", it can genuinely save hours of research on complex ones. Also the "slightly faster" can add up to hours saved with frequent use.

reply
We have some exotic chicks the kids picked out, and 4 were going to die of brooder pneumonia.

An LLM correctly diagnosed it, and figure out that we could treat them with Nutri-drench Sheep Supplement, since Tractor Supply was sold out of the chicken version, and they are very similar.

Of course it then immediately recommended we use hemp bedding that would kill them a different way, but the saleswoman sanity checked all of the above,

100% survival rate.

Everyone’s thriving. Chickens would follow the medical advice again, I guess.

reply
Sounds like you have only the saleswoman to thank, not the bot.
reply
I used Gemini to fix my new boiler by taking various photos and asking it for help. It saved me a plumber call-out (this was a user error issue, nothing safety critical).

Gemini also told me about some obscure procedures to fix my wedding paperwork after it’d been submitted with typos.

reply
> - Significantly increased my productivity as a software engineer

I don't understand this. It increased productivity of every developer in the western world, so it didn't really give you an advantage. Your output is more valuable, but your colleagues' output is more valuable too, and your competitors' output too, and so on. So you're doing more things at the same salary and it's not like your company or your employer is making more money than usual or awarding you more eoy bonus. If your "life-change" is "I'm writing more code" without any other advantage (and with the possible disadvantage of your role changing, or being at risk), why is it desirable?

reply
Intrinsic motivation. I find developing software inherently enjoyable, and being able to build things faster with less friction simply makes me happy.
reply
From experience, whenever someone asks in that particular tone and is actually provided with examples, they proceed to bend over backwards to "prove" that it's secretly not much of an improvement at all/AI psychosis/a mirage/actually harmful/<insert other substitute for "I don't like it therefore you must be wrong" reason here>.
reply
I asked - I don't have an opinion either way. I use LLMs, I just don't find them life changing, but I would never deny that in a world with infinite data something that can do a pretty good first pass at parsing and summarizing and organizing it with little effort on the creation end is a good thing.
reply
Some guy vibe coded a tasks app client that I really like. Not life changing but I couldn't find one that suited my needs since de-iPhoning before this one.
reply
Immediate medical and childcare advice from LLM are pretty life changing.

Interpreting reports, avoiding drug interactions, or knowing when to seek medical care. And before people object- I can literally use the same LLM my doctor does to check these things, without waiting 2 weeks for an appointment.

I helped my parents work through bacterial culture results when my dad was hospitalized with sepsis, and had them ask their doctor for specific follow up tests.

I rebuilt my gas furnace and fixed my dishwasher with AI as an assistant.

Those aren't the fun parts tho. My favorite is touring art museums ancient historical sites with an LLM guide. It can give me a short academic essay about every artist, painting, or artifact. It can pull out details quirky stories about the history that I specifically would find interesting.

I cant recommend this enough. Its like visiting with a 10 PhD docents in art history.

reply
How do you know it is not hallucinating those quirky stories :)?
reply
How do you trust a book, blog, tour guide, or art history teacher?

How do you trust the placards under a piece of art?

The short answer is you accept that it isn't perfect and move on with life. I have found multiple errors in all of those things. Human tour guides are especially the worst at making things up.

Part of navigating life is dealing with imperfect information and uncertainty.

Just like with a friend, coworker, or spouse, you use your judgment and track records to decide when to trust what is being said based on subject matter and stakes.

Domain matters. I have found it good at history, but less trustworthy in others. For examle, the llm gave me a bunch of bogus advice as I repaired my dishwasher based on weather models that weren't accurate. There is also a lot of bad information on Reddit and Appliance blogs. Repairman are almost as bad as the tour guides, willing to lie straight to your face. I deal with it the same way.

reply
I trust Wikipedia- and it is available on iPhone
reply
Because generally speaking people have a firm grasp on truth and lies are intentional, predictable, and rare. LLMs have a tenuous grasp on reality at best and make things up constantly.
reply
I have found them to be as good as people and in some contexts much better.
reply
reply
It does have to be an LLM; when people talk about AI these days, they're talking about LLMs; that's the common framing of the discussion. Linking to unrelated ML to argue that AI has benefits is disingenuous.
reply
Try the prompt to opus 4.8:

does "das man" know they are part of the crowd?

reply
I think it is a typical example of where N% (N tends to zero) of the population GREATLY benefits AI models, while the next bracket (casual users) enjoy some benefit, but the vast majority would not feel any difference if they lost the tech tomorrow.

Let me rephrase that to you: The vast, vast majority of people, even in the western world, even the white-collar part of the population, are not whales or power users of AI models.

I use ChatGPT daily. And I never spend more than $25/month. If I lost it, it would suck, but it would not affect my life significantly. I then see people spending $100 / day on Claude Code tokens, programmers in startups / tech companies rack up thousands a month in bills. These people are literally spending 100x more than me, a casual user.

Yeah, I suspect they follow some sort of whale economics - where a relatively small userbase (in the big picture) and providing them with a huge chunk of their revenue.

But still these companies are being valued as if they're some omnipresent companies which humanity simply can't live without.

reply
Do you use Grok multiple times per day? Is Grok solving Erdos problems?
reply
> Do you use Grok multiple times per day?

No body who has a choice is using Grok

> Is Grok solving Erdos problems?

Mēh! At a slower rate than models a fraction of the price

reply
> No body who has a choice is using Grok

The Grok app had over 100 million downloads in 2025, over 60 million active users, and generated $350 million in revenue. That’s a lot of people being forced to use it.

reply
Grok revenue is like 100x smaller than xai estimated capex? Doesn't look great.
reply
Still more than I expected based on anecdotal experience
reply
Comments like these make me feel like AI is a computer in the hands of a monkey, and that too the computer which is unreliable.
reply
I don't know if its really improved my life at all. Sure I can put together quick and dirty single-use programs faster I guess, but I feel like losing that practice has actively made me a worse developer.
reply
deleted
reply
Even if they are, it still doesn't justify the ridiculous levels of overvaluation. They are not essentials and their consumer demand is extremely elastic.
reply
So, let's see. LLMs made my overall coding output significantly faster, even factoring in review time and tech debt. My employer should technically benefit from this, but it doesn't really, because all its competitors use the same AIs and all their engineers increased their throughput in a similar way. So I'm not sure that I, my colleagues or the whole segment I work in really benefited from AI in any measurable way.
reply
Your clients and your competitors' clients did benefit from this overall faster coding output though.

Eventually your employer benefitted too, from more & happier paying customers.

Finally you indirectly befitted as well - through continued employment, salary and bonuses and stock (if you own any).

reply
But that didn't happen in reality, did it?

Clients - I don't see anyone delighted that apps are better, or cheaper, or more secure. If anything, I see more enshittification, more half-baked ideas and more fear that security is worse now that we let AIs write almost all code.

Employers - They didn't really sell more or expanded their customer base. They would have, if they had the exclusive advantage, but now everyone has AI. They can cram more features in their software quicker, but so can their competitors, and AI is not magically opening any untapped market. If anything, everyone is now doing the same thing - trying to get their software on the AI train, with mediocre results so far.

You - did you benefit really? The job market is shit due to the death of ZIRP, the nature of the job itself is changing and there's a lot of uncertainty around. If anything, employees are now laid off more, not less, and salary and bonuses are not increased in any measurable way.

It looks like to me that we have to dance this particular dance because if we don't do we're left behind. That's fine, it happens every now and then. It might even be that in the future we will have tangible advantages from LLMs - better automated health care, better learning opportunities come to mind. That has to be demonstrated. But now, in year 2026, what's one advantage of AI? Having less and pricier RAM? Being able (and expected) to write more code in less time?

reply
Another generic, useless comment which absolutely refuses to mention any particular aspect, eg how your life has been improved. It's so tiring

And when pushed all we get is another teaser of "Significantly increased my productivity"

reply
Starlink a generational leap in Internet connectivity. The Starlink satellite constellation is over 10,000 satellites. It is hard to comprehend. Also, they will soon add mobile phone service. That will be yet another generational leap. I watched a (sadly) short YouTube video about the SpaceX factory in Seattle (area) that produces one Starlink satellite per day. That is incredibly fast. That alone sounds like a generational leap in satellite manufacturing. (Oh yeah, and they have a somewhat less technically impressive factory in Texas that produces millions of Starlink antennas per year.)

Final sad note about Starlink: It is helping Ukraine to win the war. It makes their mid- and long-range drones almost impossible to jam. (Most short-range drones use fibre optics these days to avoid jamming.)

reply
Id be more enthusiastic if I could buy starlink at a valuation based on starlink. Instead we’re getting a shitsandwich of a combo stock with a pile of regulatory manipulation on top
reply
Yes, the help Ukraine... by not connecting Crimea by choice.
reply
Why is this comment downvoted? It is factually correct. The reason why Ukraine has such an upper hand in the last 3-6 months with mid- to long-range drones is access to Starlink, even within Russian territory. Russia does not have the same, so it is harder to navigate their one way attack drones.
reply
Try to keep perspective, these valuations are just functions of the stock market the end result of some spreadsheet. They have nothing to do with quality of life. Why would you relate those two things in the first place?
reply
They are fundamentally different, but people desire they be aligned. The public expects the economy to producing higher quality of life for us, otherwise what is it doing? And for whom? But whether it actually does so is a function of other things. That gap seems bigger than usual right now with AI and tech eating the whole economy.
reply
Yes, exactly. Many people fail to ask themselves: what is the economy for?
reply
It would be very nice if we had a system where the money was backed by some kind of consensus about quality of life. But what we have has more to do with compulsion.

The more dollars there are, the more deeply in debt we are. If these were interpersonal debts where we all owe the dollars to each other such that they go away when whatever promise is eventually kept, that would be a tight knit society. But instead we're all indebted to the banks, so instead we have a lot of collateral at risk, and a lot of uncertainty about whether it's a stable arrangement.

If there isn't enough money to satisfy the asking prices set by the owners of these abstractions, then we can always go deeper into debt until there is. Or we could have a debt jubilee and let the prices re-settle to something more in tune with reality.

reply
1. Valuation is based on the estimate of future profits. It has absolutely nothing to do with what have already been delivered. It's not a prize, it's an estimate.

2. There's a potential to optimize a lot of economic activity in there.

reply
> Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life?

Stored in pension funds in the hope that by the time the current working class goes to pension age, there is enough left.

reply
Isn't that the market cap of the company? That doesn't mean the company creates trillions of dollars of value. It just means the number of shares times the last per share trading price is trillions of dollars.
reply
One would assume that the "market cap" of the company is equivalent to it's *worth*. Asking how Anthropic is worth $1tn+ is a valid question when it doesn't do much, apart from the promise of making a large fraction of the world unemployed and the rest under the thumb of unethical American tech supremacy. It's arguably built on the largest intellectual property theft in the history of mankind. That's generally what people worry about. Whether that's "true" or not I guess is how you frame your world view.
reply
High valuations and other people's wealth doesn't need to improve _your_ individual quality of life - just the quality of life of someone who's willing to pay and the participants of that system.
reply
Why don't you start a company that fixes problems you care about, then?
reply
> Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life?

I think these IPOs are going to mint tens of thousands of new millionaires or something. That, in turn, will generate massive tax windfalls for all levels of government.

> other than the ability to produce more crap?

This is a big "other than." (And to be clear, the jury is still out on whether AI will let us produce more in the long run.)

reply
It's not a pyramid scheme, it's a reverse funnel.
reply
If jury is still out on positivity, long term, of AI, I'd really like to see arguments for that. Historically all - almost? - technical improvements were net positive; even some blunders had upside. AI is dangerous, yes, but e.g. fission was developed for the bomb, and now powers significant numbers of households worldwide - the tech less than 90 years old.
reply
> all - almost? - technical improvements were net positive

I think it’s very likely AI is a technical improvement. But there is still a chance it’s a small improvement being massively overbuilt.

reply
I think this is the story of tech in general. In my life, I've seen 3 really big steps down for the middle class: 2001, 2008 and then covid. Basic necessities are expensive today - people point to high GDP but what I see is high prices and poverty. And Tech, we've built a dystopian surveillance state.
reply
> Basic necessities are expensive

There is going to be a well-deserved shitshow when these IPO proceeds start hitting real estate markets.

reply
A shitshow for whom? I see it as extremely unlikely for the United States of America to not allow individuals to purchase things for whatever money they can pull together.

The only answer is to make it unacceptable socially, more costly economically (taxes, etc), or the third option which involves pitchforks (perhaps that also falls under "unacceptable socially") that I hope we can avoid at all costs. (is this the show you mention?)

Feels like folks used to understand the balance a bit better - but I think I made that up. This next governance cycle is going to be a trust-busting, wealth-confiscating one I think.

reply
> shitshow for whom?

I think there will be a tremendous political opportunity in the next 6 months to capitalize on rage in cities against new tech wealth driving up housing costs.

reply
Housing prices aren't going up. They peaked in late 2022. Boomers are a huge generation, with homes millennials and Gen Z can't afford to buy. And they are smaller generations.
reply
> Housing prices aren't going up

Where? Rents and home prices are increasing in most American markets.

reply
Everywhere. I own a home in California - prices peaked in the state in 2022. Here is a map of home prices: https://www.reventure.app/map
reply
Not for apartments / condos in Seattle. I looked today on Zillow and lots of apartment rentals advertised 2 weeks or 1 month free rent. Lets see what happens.
reply
> Where's the trillions, or hundreds of billions worth in improved quality of life?

Starlink and Claude are both awesome and huge QoL improvements for me!

reply
Quality of life doesnt matter. What matters is the choices people make to spend their money on. This is what drives profits.

If you are upset about people spending their extra productivity and labor hours on poision and mental laxitives, i would mostly agree. This is a failure of culture to adapt to distratcions and shiny objects

reply
spacex makes starlink, which did improve quality of life. it is also allowing connectivity to drones in armed conflicts.
reply
this sounds like a reddit comment too much. why would trillions of dollars improve your quality of life. a bunch of companies get investments from a bunch of VCs who took out loans... and that means your quality of life should improve?

And what's more crap exactly? it feels like your grasping at straws to take one set of things and associate them with others. yeah, lots of terrible products out there, lots of enshittification, lots of topics of discussion there. But AI and GPUs are being used in such a diverse way it is impossible to have one opinion on it all like how you're trying to.

I'm not even disagreeing (or agreeing with you), I'm just saying that's a lazy comment to make. if these companies making profits without paying taxes, that's a voter problem (not even politics, just people being shitty voters, self not excluded).

For everyone else who might think they have a better formed opinion on this topic, I only ask that you apply the same level of passion to how the US national debt is now 120% of the GDP. The government is fighting wars and printing money, devaluing your wealth, and indebting your country to previously unseen levels. At least the banks and VCs are using their money (unless they get a bail out again), not your actual tax money, and the tax money and wealth of generations of Americans. You have a president literally stealing billions of dollars in broad day light from literally you.

reply
The stock market is just a game that rich people use to manipulate money. It is not a reflection of the real world. Consider for example Google, one of the companies with highest valuation in the market. If Google stops working now, the only problem we'll have is getting a few minutes back of our time. Nobody will have big issues in life because one cannot find a web page, view more ads, and watch silly videos! However they will swear that Google is the most important company in the world to justify the money people throw at it. I won't even go to Meta, which is like celebrating that people are using crack cocaine...
reply
If everyone using Gmail permanently lost access to their gmail there’d be massive problems
reply
you can replace “google” with every company that exists or has ever existed so no sure what the purpose of your comment is unless you are pitching abolishing the stock market. google is what they are because they make shitton of money and will continue to do so (more and more) into foreseeable future. that is stock market, always has been, always will be
reply
if kroger shut its doors, my life would be much worse
reply
Rest assured altman and other guys have improved their quality life significantly.
reply
Raven, Raven.. that's for those who can borrow against that to know and you to likely never find out.

What you thought your life would improve? Didn't you hear, wages are only increasing, why don't you invest some of that sweet cash into @JumpCrissCross' fund, it'll be alright. What were you going to do with healthcare anyway?

reply
Meanwhile the federal minimum wage is still $7.25/hr.
reply
And how many earn this? Around 1% of hourly employees…if that. Not what I’d be concerned with right now.
reply
Why not raise it then?
reply
I don’t know, ask the states that have lower wages on the books (even though federal prevails).
reply
Why shouldn't we be concerned about it?

A society should be judged by how it treats those at the bottom and by that metric our current society is pretty awful.

reply
? Who are you to say they deserve more than that.
reply
I come to this website everyday. And each day I lose faith in humanity a little more.
reply
Who are you to say that they don't?
reply
What makes you better than them?
reply
My own lived experience tells me they deserve more.

The vast majority of people I've known who have worked for minimum wage were much harder workers and frankly just much better humans (who happened to have less privileged starts in life) than the vast majority of people I've known who are financially secure.

But even if you don't believe they deserve more inherently, it would still be dumb for us to continue to let income inequality grow at the ridiculous rates it has been over the last 40 years. This pattern never turns out well for society.

reply
0. You are really trying to say that one group of people are “much better humans”…? I think people should fear this type of attitude. It _never_ turns out well for society when we go this route.

1. The federal minimum wage is not the solution to any of your complaints.

reply
Nominal global financial wealth is about $350 trillion. If you include real estate global nominal wealth is about $600 trillion.

A good portion of that[1] is what alot of people might call fake money--valuation inflation, etc. And global wealth, even just financial wealth, isn't quite as mobile across borders as one might assume. So marshalling a trillion dollars stateside is gonna make at least some moderate waves. Still, in the grand, global scheme of things a trillion dollars is a rounding error. A trillion isn't what it used to be, and there's trillions to be had even without any realized productivity gains from AI.

[1] I'm no financial analyst, but judging by the last few recessions and the overall trajectory over the past 30 years, I'd ballpark at most about 1/3 of that to go up in smoke if we had a severe downturn tomorrow. It's not all fake money. The whole world has industrialized over the past 30 years on a scale that is still unfathomable for most people today.

reply