I startup 4 or so projects then go do other things for 4 hours. I don’t have enough energy to steer overnight, but I’m at least “semi afk” for daytime steering. So throughput is king for me, tokens per hour. Not latency or actual tokens per second.

Is interactive use for coding something that actually works today? With unsafe mode, even frontier hosted models are slow enough I end up just tabbing out to work on other tasks. It would need to be much faster if I am to sit and stare at it while it churns. Local models might be a lot slower but workflow-wise it doesn't change much for me.

It's not a bottleneck if you care about the actual code.

Yep, its already quite easy to do so with tools like opencode/openrouter. Ive used some open source models and they seem … ok? Im not doing foundational math, just refactoring code, understanding existing code etc. I don’t see a future where companies blow 11% of employee compensation on a single tool; the hosted AI server + oss models will 99% win out.

I don’t think companies will do that. Why don’t they just buy local on-premise infrastructure even though it’s cheaper than AWS?

“AI in a box” sounds a heck of a lot like “the box” from the Silicon Valley TV show. Or the Google search appliance. Or name any other on-premise thing that is equally dinosauric.

The real finding of this article is that AI tokens are direct competitors with offshoring. $1,500/month buys you a whole employee in India.

And this is before AI companies inevitably increase pricing after the conclusion of the growth phase.

It’s non trivial now - will it get easier in 12 months though?

You don't need to run on laptops, desktops plugged into mains power get more power consumption and better cooling. I want my laptop to work, but I can accept when I'm on an airplane at 32k feet I get less abilities.

Even if the laptop costs $5k and you upgrade it every year with the latest hardware and run local models (assuming your workload can tolerate smaller models at slower tok/s), you win.

> You can ask the same for the median 330k salary in the US for Uber Engineering

People DO.

It's well known that most tech companies are ran incompetently. As you say, it's not the engineers' fault.

But most projects and hiring in these companies exists to juice promotion criteria. And that, depending on perspective, these companies are either massively overstaffed or massively underproductive.

The comparison to AI spending being wasteful holds up pretty well, these are companies that readily piss away billions in pointless spending.

Sure, but has their rate of value added increased as a result? It's a good question to ask. They added value before LLM coding, and now are more expensive than before thanks to token costs.

This is what all "platform engineers" have to do once things are working nicely: you have to keep inventing work.

I don't know; I'm a Ron Popeil "set it and forget it" kind of guy. Make the dumbest, simplest thing that's going to work with some clear path for scaling. Then go do valuable things instead.

you don't get promotion for supporting existing things, but for "inventing" you can get promoted. also for large migrations

This is a very good answer but there's a flip side too.

The idea of "if you add intelligence you make more money" is contradicted by the fact companies don't just always hire more people. Wy doesn't google just hire everyone?

> even license a SOTA model’s weights if you’d like

Yeah, I bet all labs releasing SOTA models are more than happy to remove the main way they make money and let you run it locally, especially if you're a big spender like Uber who seems very willing to throw money into the sea as an experiment.

The problem isn't really Uber, Microsoft or Nvidia, it's all the smaller none IT companies that also have developers on staff. They are screwed. $1500 per seat per month is just way to expensive, but they also can't afford to build and maintain their own on-premise solution. If Microsoft can't afford to run CoPilot for their own developer, what chance does any of their customers stand?

If the large, well founded IT companies in the world believes the current AI cost is to high, then Anthropic, OpenAI and CoPilot have no actual customer base. AI is then relegated to very profitable niche business, but that can't fund the R&D for the models.

How much more software does Uber need?

Unless they are iteratively replacing expensive vendors and optimizing other headcount costs?

XP? I can see the argument for enterprise support but in that case the latest windows OS is going to be virtually free and I dont know if MS and Dell etc. would even support an XP machine. Might even be required for hardware. If no enterprise support wouldnt Linux make a lot more sense?

I get that if it's offline the security downside of XP doesnt matter, and I assume XP is free, but being free doesnt really seem that valuable compared to alternatives (free linux and virtually free OS if buying wholesale).

I don't see it. Leasing equipment and paying per seat license fees makes a lot of accounting and cash flow sense. Maybe when it gets to the point where you can run SOTA LLMs on consumer hardware. But that seems a solid decade and probably much more away.

Even then it makes more sense to rent the bigger GPU and get your answer faster.

There's waayyyy too much money betting on that not happening, to the point I feel there'll be regulations popping up for "safety reasons" etc to ensure the big players control this.

Never confuse movement with action.

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Can you show me an example of a hard task that can't be achieved using light models? When we don't want the model to work on autopilot without reviewing the code at all. Even SOTA models will produce garbage code, if you don't guide them all the time.

Hard tasks require a lot of guidance and code reviewing, unless you are creating another throw away project where correctness, maintainability and code understanding does not matter.

That's because for some of these folks, the cost of the tokens doesn't have to match the value of the output; the hype from the story is all they need.

Normal people have to produce something of value from that spend. So starting 100 agents and then waking up to something cool but useless just means you spent a few thousand dollars and created nothing of value............

Running hundreds of agents overnight is almost certainly 99 percent waste.

What's the point of running it locally though? Inference for open models is quite cheap already. They could just selfhost, anyway. The experience of running LLMs locally will be excruciatingly bad in comparison at least for the near future.

As much as I love to hate on Uber, that website is from 2022. Uber has been profitable since 2023.

It's profit margin seems to have stabilized around 10%.

The real economic crime is losing at least $40bn over 10 years scaling a business that ended up having retail profit margins (i.e. low profit margins).

I can say at least for me at a small-ish company (~40 FTE) there has been a surge in internal productivity tools. Nothing to improve the end user product directly but a lot of tools to make processes easier and less error prone.

What would previously be janky internal dashboards or excel sheets are now actually nice to use tools. That said of course the maintenance cost of all that has yet to be discovered, and the ROI is questionable.

~70 FTE Engineering team. We are shipping more features, especially features that previously would not have survived the cut to make it on the roadmap. Even though we are shipping more, our total amount of escaped bugs has not increased, so our escape rate has actually lowered. On top of that we are able to triage and fix escaped bugs more quickly now. And then of course there has been an uptick in internal tooling that makes the rest of the company more efficient, and we have been able to address tech debt at a higher rate than before.

I don't think this would have been possible without having solid engineering culture and processes in place before bringing in ai coding tools.

And I don't want to sugarcoat it, this hasn't been easy, requires continued discipline, and took well over a year to get good at. And we still have to continuously learn, experiment and adapt our training, tooling, and processes.

    > We are shipping more features

The real answer?

Software engineer quality of life.

There can be an increase in productivity without a corresponding increase in total output. The gains could be captured by software engineers doing a days work in an hour then fucking off in a variety of ways.

Imo its pretty clear that anyone who is taking the issue at least somewhat seriously knows the amount of value they provide is not non-zero. However, the problems are manifold: firstly, toolchains vary wildly, from fancy autocomplete, to engineers chatting with codebases they're unfamiliar with, to people integrating them into devops and infra, to people doing spec driven development, with a thousand philosophies inbetween. Many people suspect that those above them in the ladder are on the cusp of massive failure due to losing track of the code, and many people higher on the ladder think those below them are overly cautious. I hate to be the guy saying "oh it must be somewhere in the middle", but I will say at the very least I like being able to use it to read docs for me, and to synthesize syntax and simple scripts (give me a join that works across these tables and gives me column x, y and z - give me a python script that parses a file like this example and extracts abc data - given this api spec figure out how I can get this data from this endpoint, go)

as for building actually complex software, the art of that is not in simply chaining together such scripts. Its the art of using architecture and testing to shape uncertainty, and developing requirements (and extrapolating sensibly from incomplete requirements). I don't think llms are great at this, but they arent terrible either. A lot of the more active users in the space are doing stuff where theyve realised they need more detailed specs, which like, yeah, we knew this already - better defined problems lead to better software.

Consider rewiring your perspective: getting an edge doesn't really matter; the only thing that matters is will customers pay for this? Is this a useful, valuable problem to solve?

Coding faster doesn't really solve that.

Uber makes more money if people buy more rides, order more food, have some breakthrough in autonomous driving. They can save money if they can optimize some ops or spend somewhere. Is there any evidence that with the spend on AI that they achieved any of this? If they did, I'm sure we'd hear about it in some engineering blog.

I'm definitely getting that much value out of Claude Code and Copilot.