The theme of the scientific findings is that while humans excel with none of our physical sensors, we do very well across the board in making use of them thanks to our relatively huge brains.
And fantastical amounts of compute power is exactly what are handing over to AI. The fact that their training data isn't perfect may matter less.
Maybe they will soon but it’s massively far behind the kind of timeframe AI 2027 would have implied.
But, if you could wave a wand and eliminate all legal and liability hurdles to self-driving, automobile deaths would plummet. They're way safer than the average human driver. The technology is definitely capable, our society just isn't ready for it.
If you don't care about getting the drone back, it does simplify the problem somewhat.
But during peacetime, you don't make money running a delivery service that way, so it's not going to replace those jobs.
250 years of constant automation has never produced large scale unemployment, despite obsoleting everyone's jobs several times over.
“I’ve been pulling my sled across this lake for 50 winters even when the temperature went above freezing. Never fell through!”
And similar things can be said about many technologies in recent history – cars replacing the horse, first flight to man on the moon, even the creation of early internet to its mass adoption.
You're talking generally a decade or 2 for society to completely change from the rapid advancement of a new technology.
I'm not saying I agree with the 2035 prediction, but it doesn't seem impossible to me, if AI can help us improve the pace that we're already developing disruptive robotics.
In 2010 the idea of self-driving cars and autonomous delivery drones seemed very sci-fi and a long way out. But today, just 15 years on, these things are increasingly starting to be rolled out.
If they dropped that 95% number to 50-60%, I think I'd probably lean towards agreeing. Not because it makes sense in my gut, but because the logical part of my brain knows exponential trends (if one exists) do things that we wouldn't instinctively predict. But even if you assume exponentials 95% does seem very high.
It's 2026, one year after your predicted date, and that still hasn't happened though.
My guess is that the deployment of other types of robots will often be a similarly slow grind.
That's unlike the Internet, smart phones, and coding agents, which got user adoption at a much quicker pace.