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People have no idea how successful big pharma’s info campaign has been since what I’m increasingly calling the real Web 3.0 (post-influencer social media and arrival of big corporate narratives).

According to Reddit, Epsom salt has no effect (doesn’t absorb) - you’re wasting your time by using it. They’ll cite all sorts of real, funded studies that agree and yet always the comment section is filled with anecdotal evidence of the contrary - to which a typical response is “hot water in general is soothing” (ignoring efficacy of magnesium sulfate in ice baths).

I digress - creatine is a similar situation. All this confusion at best. It’s also not unlike the health effects of cannabis just prior to going effectively legal - it either causes or cures cancer, or something? We need more research! That’s the real problem!

Any time you see this sort of narrative it’s corporate politics and influence at play.

By virtue of how hard it is to get any information on creatine, it probably threatens some market or vertical at least (whether or not it “works”). Like A. muscaria mushroom or sassafras, you’ll have to do your own research to really know.

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The Epsom salt meme predates your “Web 3.0” thesis by many decades. I have no idea if it’s true but it’s not indicative of any new trend.
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Lots of state actors criticizing the US too. Bots everywhere.
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if there's a strong measurable effect to any of these supplements, why can't it be studied? there are companies on both sides, so someone who sells creatine could fund one if they like.
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Magnesium? Its widely known that magnesium is used by the body lol

What they “doubt” is that it can be absorbed through the skin.

But anyone who takes magnesium tablets can tell you the effect is the same.

And it is studied btw - problem is there are countless on both sides.

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> Magnesium? Its widely known that magnesium is used by the body lol

Who disputed this?

> What they “doubt” is that it can be absorbed through the skin

The science is helpful. Magnesium sulfate is absorbed less effectively than magnesium chloride. Of course, you're not eating the amount of Epsom salts one dumps in a bath.

> And it is studied btw - problem is there are countless on both sides

This is why meta analysis exists.

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That website examine is good for supplement info. They had to paywall most info because LLMS scraped the c$#p out of them m
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I think this is quite different because (1) creatine has been proven to be completely harmless for people of all ages absent some rare thing like a kidney disorder and (2) it has a bunch of clearly measurable positive effects.

So this is more like trying to determine whether ginseng is good at keeping away colds or whatever. Maybe it does (actually quickly searching this, it definitely does but let's pretend it's as folksy as it sounds for a minute) but even if it doesn't then it's harmless and has a bunch of other effects, so when one takes it - the whole possible cold prophylaxis can just be seen as an added perk.

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Issue being that if you took everything that's "probably harmless" at once, cramming your body full of supplements, you might just end up harming yourself with substances that are toxic above certain amounts (acute iron toxicity etc.). Also the more random stuff you take, the more likely it is that something you took actually does turn out to have been harmful later.

So no, you should not take something merely because it's "probably harmless".

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> So no, you should not take something merely because it's "probably harmless"

You and I should not. But I'm also not going to bother correcting someneone taking homeopathy for a cold. It doesn't do anything. But unless it contains heavy metals, it also isn't hurting.

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You are strawmanning what he said. What he said is much better summarized as if a substance has other beneficial effects and there is one that is potentially just placebo, then it is ok. That is completely different than your paraphrase.
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Is there a particular rare kidney disorder that creatine is contraindicated for? Because kidney disease is not rare, something like 14% of US adults have kidney disease.
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It’s not completely harmless, for me it causes heart palpitations that are so bad my watch tells me I’m in atrial fibrillation. Yes I know this sounds crazy. I’ve ruled everything else out. No, it is not creatine mixed with caffeine or whatever. Just pure creatine. No, I don’t have any other heart issues. I can give myself an irregular heartbeat just by having some creatine. It doesn’t happen otherwise. I have seen a cardiologist, he said it’s rare but it is theoretically possible.
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Given creatine is present in several foods, do you have an intolerance to those as well as creatine in supplement form? Curious if it's a simple allergy or the dosage.
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Creatine breaks when cooked, so for the most part he's not gonna get too much from eating a steak or whatever. Taking 5g/day of pure creatine to satiate your stores might be too much for this particular individual. Anyway, the parent produces its own creatine as well!
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and the thing people seem to not understand: how exactly do you _expect_ to be able to notice this change? Its something that happens after you take it for a prolonged period of time (>7days) and only has a minor/medium effect.

It doesn't make you a genius. I think a better view on it is that it may mitigate some of the adhs symptoms (at least for me).

I can keep on track for a significantly longer time since ive started supplementing with it at ~15g/day - and while i dont feel a difference, i can observe it when actually paying attention to what i do / how often i drift off etc.

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What I'm getting from all this is that we have an armchair expert explaining details about something they're not an expert in, and we have you reviewing the way they present this information, saying their very weak hedge wasn't strongly negative enough. Based on priors about the industry.

Basically, HN doing HN things - having a good deep think about topics outside their realm of expertise, then debating the minutiae. I'd just rather trust someone who has spent their career researching this stuff, thanks (unless that's what you do - in which case please tell us more).

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"HN doing HN things" over someone saying "good discussion, however, one point about the conclusion" and having that point be very rational and still open to debate.

Is discussing such secondary but still highly relevant aspects verboten? Must every comment here be by a lead researcher in the specific field? Would a biomedical science researcher necessarily have any more expertise on these important secondary aspects?

"Trust me, I'm a scientitian". No thanks.

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It may be minutiae, but olooney’s point is valid: the evidence doesn’t seem to support saying “maybe a little”. Remove that statement from the conclusion and it’s on the right track, aside from the arbitrary IQ point calculation which is nonsensical.
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If you're being academically rigorous about it, sure, but I think it's fine as an informal conclusion.
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Even as an informal conclusion I think it's important to know who you're up against and what their motivations are. Waving that away is how we get people like known, obvious charlatans like RFK Jr in any sort of position of power. I know this is nitpicking word choice but the informal conclusion is "Not likely, and not enough to matter for anything."
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Personally I take creatine for entirely non-cognitive reasons, so it's reassuring to know it's probably not making me any dumber.
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Though you also have to consider potentially adulterated powder (accidental or not) in the unregulated supplement industry.

That's why I dropped creatine since I didn't notice any benefits when I tried it for a year.

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With most industries companies live and die by their reputation. Find a bulk provider with a positive reputation and the creatine you buy is almost certainly going to be safer than e.g. eating at Taco Bell. And with creatine in particular it's so dirt cheap that a lot of motivation for dodgy stuff goes away unlike e.g. with protein powders where amino acid spiking can save a company a bunch of money. And incidentally creatine is one of the substances dodgy companies use for amino acid spiking, just because it's so cheap!

That said it's obviously the right decision to drop it if you're not seeing any effects. The interesting thing about creatine is that people's bodies are very different in their natural levels of creatine, and if you're already at 'saturation' then more creatine isn't going to do anything. Same reason the typical benefits of creatine don't show much difference beyond 5g/day. That's enough to send the overwhelming majority of people towards 'saturation.'

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There is a brand of creatine manufactured in the US (con-cret) and a brand manufactured in Germany (Creapure). Either of those companies should address the concern around adulterated powder.

> That's why I dropped creatine since I didn't notice any benefits when I tried it for a year.

Some percentage of people (~20%) are creatine non-responders [1]. It's pretty reasonable to try creatine and then drop it if you find no benefit. I personally find the gain very marginal.

[1] https://fitchef.com/shorts/creatine-non-responder/

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For me it has an insanely large effect. Roughly 30% more reps and endurance.
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When I stopped taking it, I went from 12 reps to 10, and slower recovery.

My level at tennis dropped too, but bicycle endurance remained the same.

I stopped because of high blood creatinine, and wanted to see what baseline was

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You do realise that you cannot prove a negative? So the right conclusion even informally cannot be “ probably not making me any dumber”.
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it might even be counteracting the negative effects of your frequent contact with airborne nitrogen
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what negative effects? N2 is inert under physiological conditions.
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What value is there to an informal conclusion when the topic is as important as intelligence? The downsides to creatine if taken without good scientific backing should not be disregarded, yet that’s exactly what many ordinary people are now doing because of “informal conclusions” like this.
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Are there really downsides to creatine though? (Genuine question). All the advice I've seen makes it seem like it's basically just good for you even if it doesn't accomplish some specific thing. The only downside I've heard is maybe water retention?
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That's not the point. Often in medicine, the downside of using one thing is that you're not using another thing that would be safer and more effective. When people chase results from unproven therapies, often it means they're avoiding doing something else that is known to produce a result - even if the result of the alternative is not as spectacular as the unproven therapy promises to be.

But speaking of creatine itself, while not inherently toxic, consuming large doses can cause serious indirect harms, such as triggering falsely elevated kidney markers on blood tests that lead doctors to misdiagnose organ failure, unnecessarily cancel crucial medical treatments, or order invasive biopsies. Furthermore, overloading the body with creatine while taking kidney-stressing medications (like heavy doses of ibuprofen) or having an undetected renal condition can cause actual acute kidney strain, while the massive shift of water into muscle cells can trigger severe dehydration, heat exhaustion, and electrolyte imbalances during intense heat or exercise if fluid intake falls behind.

But, I don't want to belabour the point about creatine. Rather, I want to focus on the negatives stemming from NOT doing other things that ARE proven to be safe and effective. People tend to think creatine will solve a lot of their problems (for instance, they may believe it will fix their feeling of being "low energy). But by avoiding things that might actually help their problem get better, they're persisting a poor state of health.

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What are the "downsides"? It is one of the most studied substances and except in special cases like kidney issues it is totally safe.
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The null is surely different in this case because we know that supplemented creatine goes to the brain and the brain uses it, which is definitely not a claim all supplements can make.

The fact that there's a biologically plausible mechanism plus mixed statistical evidence makes "maybe" a perfectly reasonable conclusion.

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You are essentially trying to say that most studies regarding supplements are not valid
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mandatory XKCD https://xkcd.com/882/ "Jellybeans cause acne"
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I was visiting a friend’s lab at NASA Ames the other day. I smiled seeing this on the wall there. I sometimes daydream about what it’d be like if our primary education system devoted an hour a week to reading / discussing comics (well, XKCD specifically), or pages form What If…? Maybe it’d kill the magic of it, but I still feel plenty of seeds would get planted along the way for more critical thinking later in life.
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I think you are on to it. The magic would die. It's a recipe for dystopia same as the Agile Manifesto was such a recipe.
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Just the green ones. If they found a link, they found a link

I'm sure that the comic wants to be sarcastic but is missing the mark here. This is how science works. Trying and failing every color except green, does not mean that the green experiment has an invalid result.

The author is not understanding that each experiment is independent.

The correct cartoon should show researchers trying green jellybeans 100 times, with 99 negative results and one positive result, and then the press keeping only the positive (Or in this comic, claiming that all jellybeans produce acne).

Mocking the scientific method, and showing scientists as lazy people that play video-games is funny, but is just a cartoon, not the reality. People should not take XKCD as god's speech without any critical thinking. This in your workplace says to me "I don't really understand statistics".

There is an effect that is statistically rare just by chance, AND is consistently absent within a huge control group of "non-green jellybeans" (the author seems to think that this weakens the result, but in fact is reinforcing it). And it needs further research. Not less, not more.

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> If they found a link, they found a link

You could have skipped the wall of text. They didn’t find a link. They found a random correlation.

The scientists here essentially engaged in P-hacking: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Data_dredging

Munroe didn’t misunderstand the independence of the experiments at all. He understands that misleading spurious results can arise from repeated experiments.

> And it needs further research. Not less, not more.

No it doesn’t. At least not anymore than the other colors. A positive result is no more deserving of further investigation than a negative result. What you are describing is bad science.

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I think the way you interpret the null result is downstream of considering creatine as "a supplement". You can make the null result say anything by changing your prior about creatine or supplements. That's the issue with priors.

You also seem to reject the possibility that some things help just a bit. The author has another article in the same vein about "things that can help maybe a bit but the evidence we have doesn't really help detecting small effects" https://dynomight.net/vitamin-d/

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Heavily agreed. The supplement industry has such a low level of reliability that it has really soured me on so many practices people have. And I flat out do not understand how some of the supplement stores survive.
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Hard sell. I remember the time I went to GNC and they gave me a free sample of the notorious Jack3D which had some kind of amphetamine-like stimulant in it and was associated with young soldiers in the US Army falling down dead.
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They survive because people want to believe. Look at the history: the phrase “snake oil” exists because people actually sold products by that name as a remedy. There were also tonics based on radium.

“There's a sucker born every minute.”

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The story of how the phrase snake oil came to be is a fascinating one. Clark Stanley, an American, ripped off a Chinese product which was actually a decent anti-inflammatory, and didn't put any snake oil in his snake oil, which is why it didn't work!
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>And I flat out do not understand how some of the supplement stores survive.

I think mostly through placebo effect, people buy a supplement to treat condition X and they think it's getting better, so they keep buying.

I mean, just look at the wide variety of homeopathic "cures" that are often so diluted that there might not be any molecules of the active ingredient left. Yet people keep buying it.

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Okay, but it kind of sounds like you want to nanny-state the writer's language.

Their conclusion seems like an absolutely fair interpretation of what they saw, and it also strikes me as dangerous -- perhaps more dangerous -- to suggest "writer genuinely believes, or doesn't believe, a thing, but they should say it differently from their own interpretation because..people are dumb?" Something like that.

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One person is not a nation.
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It's a metaphor.
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A poor one. You can be a metaphorical nanny state of something smaller like a household or comment section, I suppose, but even then not with a single statement. The problem with a nanny state is the scope. And people expressing contrary opinions isn't nannying.
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