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I worked at Sun labs and used a Sun Ray daily for a whole summer. It worked...OK. Definitely not "Incredibly well". We had a network of a few hundred Sun Rays and two E10Ks backing it. More than a million for the servers and $1000k a piece for the Sun Rays was not cheap. Basically any $1000 laptop was more powerful, without the need for a crazy powerful Sun server. The experience of taking out my ID card, walking down the hall to another cubicle and popping it in and getting my session was magical. But I did that less than once a week, so I don't think it was overall worth it. The Sun Rays also had a pretty crappy LCD, about 1-2 years behind the SoTA.

It was a cool idea. It will keep coming back again and again. But at Sun's price points around the early 2000s, it was a loser, and I actually agree with the market in this instance. Sun Ray was a flop.

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Stadia? GeForce Now? Xbox Cloud Gaming? :-)
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"It will keep coming back again and again."

It lived on in the world of Windows Terminal Services and things like Citrix - maybe still does in some places.

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Citrix is still everywhere you need a client that can do things a web browser can’t—like run ancient VB4 software or talk to device hardware—deployed at scale.

Citrix was bought out by PE for $16.5B a few years ago, under the (sadly correct) assumption they hadn’t been charging their customers enough money for this essential tech.

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It lives on in the world of LLMs in a way.
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Chromebooks…
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$1000k ?
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Is this how the whole LLM thing will go down once providers raise prices?
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Maybe - ask me in 20 years...

Nobody knows how the future will be. There are lots of options. There are self hostable open models today - they are not as good, but some report they are good enough. Right now I don't have the hardware to try them (I could - if I'm willing to accept a small number of tokens per minute - useful means more tokens per second as I can get in an hour). However I expect in a few years I'll be able buy consumer hardware with good enough GPUs (or perhaps an AI chip???). Will anyone other than a few hobbyists buy them? time will tell.

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And space launches. The Big Names will lose a ton of money and disappear as the tech commoditises.

The moat is Being Able To Do Things No One Else Can and as both hardware and software commoditise that moat disappears.

Open LLMs are already only a few months behind the frontier models and as soon as someone works out that accessible and cheap domain-specific custom training has the potential to be a gamechanger the Big Names will die.

Math puzzles only get you so far.

LLMs are in their Big Compute phase, and it's only a matter of time before that ends - because the intelligence of the frontier models isn't increasing fast enough and providing big enough benefits to make the models more valuable than cheaper, smaller competition.

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I think prices will go down not up eventually and everybody will have access to it in abundance. That might make most current AI companies go down of course.
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it is often cheaper to buy a spare of something and throw it in a cupboard rather than have a support contract.

I have a bunch of Aruba switches and this is what we do, because it's a lot cheaper.

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If you are only buying a single spare that is the case. Support contracts make sense when you would want several dozen spares.
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if a support contract is 70% of the cost of something, then for every 2 of something a spare is cheaper.

For Aruba I think it was 1:1; a support contract was the same price as the device itself over 2 years or something.

Support contracts never cover a "site" they always cover individual devices, so your cost scales with the amount you have... so I'm not sure I follow what you're saying..

Unless you mean to imply that you're replacing units more than once every 2 years, in which case of course you're right... but then I might consider going with another vendor entirely because that is a pretty terrible reliability record.

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There are lots of different support contracts. Some of them really do cover the entire site. You seem to not realize the scale of a large data center. If every device lasts 5 years you are replacing 10 per day is not unheard of.
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Support contracts never cover a "site" they always cover individual devices

Wrong. I've signed many support contracts that were negotiated basically to "one flat fee for everything we sell that you use, including future purchases[1]" for some period of time. Some people think that they 'optimize' contracts by pushing for "I just want a service contract only on the SKUs I have". That's not always a real optimization.

[1] Often, this includes a tacit "including things you are using that you didn't tell us about".

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Interesting, I've literally never seen that (though obviously not doubting your experience) and I have (at one point) been in charge of 1% of web traffic..

I'm wondering if this is something uniquely american, because we don't seem to have much negotiating power in the UK/SE.

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I'm guessing it is the size of your company or datacenter. You have to be throwing around millions of dollars to get the opened ended contracts.
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Remember, "The Network is the Computer".

Which is why it is kind of ironic having folks discussing microservices as something groundbreaking.

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Counterpoint: it actually sucked. Entire universities lost a day's work when their editors were all fatally stuck in an rpc.lockd bug.
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the lab I was at got on this train right around the beginning of the sparc architecture. yellow pages. nfs based swap, nfs based boot. 10Mbit thinnet. we suffered for a few months and then moved to xterms for the cheap seats (which was a much better place to cut services) and went back to buying self-sufficient workstations.

the best was having everyone with a disk cross-mount each other. any failure snowballed into a global failure.

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Java applets!
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