You can short them and make a lot of money (to buy RAM with?) if you feel this way and are correct.
replyNot having the money to buy a new computer often means not having the money to put where ones mouth is.
replyCan't afford thing? Gamble on stock market instead.
Ridiculous argument that already rich people make.
Google (which is diversified more and whose performance is less likely to track AI outcomes closely) aside, the two other members of the AI Big 3 are non-public, so, no, you really can’t.
replyNo?
replyShorting doesn’t only require you to be right. It requires perfectly timing when the market will realize you’re right.
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replyYou can buy long term put options.
replyThat still requires perfect timing. Getting the timing right on a long-term contract is even harder than with a short-term contract!
replyHow does buying long term put options require perfect timing? The whole point of a long term put option is that you only have to be right at some point between when you buy it and when it expires.
replyNo, put options suffer from time decay. A $1,000 MU put for December 2027 was at about $200 today. So if Micron dropped tomorrow, you'd start making a bit of money, although the delta is only -0.32. But if you held all the way to December 2027, Micron would then have to drop all the way to $800 before your position is profitable.
replyThe point of LEAPS is you don’t have to perfect the timing. You buy far enough out to avoid theta decay, and far enough out of the money to minimize risk.
replyRegardless of timing, for shorts to pay out requires the market to actually correct itself. You won't be able to get your magical shorts money until the price of ram goes back down anyway. The market will remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
replyThe price of RAM does not need to come down in order for a way-out-of-the-money January 2027 put on NVDA to increase in value from its current purchase price.
replyCan I? Neither OpenAI nor Anthropic are publicly traded.
replyWith non-public companies?
replyThe main tool to fix this is to forbid companies to sell below cost price. It is part of antitrust law.
replyThe same thing was said 4 years ago about NVIDIA on HN, that it's stock it's outrageously overpriced, given it's $20 bln revenue, that it should have at least 10 times more revenue to justify that stock price, which is fantasy, that there is no plausible way for such demand no matter what you think about GPT-2.
replynVidia earning is way above zero by a healthy margin. This was also true 4 years ago. How much their shares should cost is debatable but still, nVidia is obviously a profitable business.
replyAnthropic net loss in 2025 was $42 bln, OpenAI $38.5 bln. Both are spending enormous amounts with no obvious path to profitability.
The market can remain irrational far longer than you can stay solvent.
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