https://www.forbes.com/sites/bradtempleton/2025/03/17/youtub...
The EU requires every new car to have Autonomos Emergency Braking. If LiDAR becomes cheaper than radar, this is a potential market of millions.
Radar is just cheaper than the number of cameras and compute, it's also not really a strict requirement.
Look at how the current cars fuck up, it's mostly navigation, context understanding, and tight manoeuvres. Lidar gives you very little in these areas
We find that the cases where lidar really helps are in gathering training data, parking, and if focused enough some long distance precision.
None of these have been instrumental in a final product; personally I suspect that many of the cars including lidar use it for data collection and edge cases more than as part of the driving perception model.
By edge cases I mean scenarios like the lights going out in an underground garage; low vision due to colourful smoke or dust, or things like optical illusions or occlusion that a human would just need to remember.
Lidar can help, but not really enough to be worth it.
If I was designing a robotaxi 10 years ago I would use lidar, designing consumer vehicles for near future L3 it's no longer the best use of resources. I prefer more compute and cameras for the money.
Our current issues are now scene understanding and navigation; followed by parking. We get very little value from LIDAR in the driving cases, so much so that we don't even use it for active nav even on cars that have it. Only for training and parking.
Waymo used LIDAR in the realtime control loop. It combines LiDAR, camera, and radar data in real time to build a 3D representation of the environment, which is constantly updated.
I fundamentally don't trust any level 4 system that doesn't use LIDAR
You don't need the mm precision of lidar very often; we find that it offers nothing at speed over radar; and in tight manoeuvres the cameras we need for human park assist and ultrasonics do well enough.
It in not more accurate; but it is more precise, but that doesn't really matter. (Radar gives you relative speed directly, this is more important than a very precise point at highway speeds).
Let me guess, you heard this from Elon?
Waymo has driven tens of millions of autonomous miles with a serious injury/fatality rate dramatically lower than human drivers. The actual data shows the technology works. Tesla FSD still requires active driver supervision and is not legally or technically a robotaxi system. Comparing them as if they're at parity is wrong.
LIDAR gives direct metric depth with no inference required. Camera-only systems must infer depth from 2D images using neural networks, which introduces failure modes LIDAR doesn't have. Radar is very valuable when LIDAR and cameras give ambiguous data.
What metrics has Telsa overtaken Waymo? Deployed robotaxi revenue miles? No. Disengagement rates? No published comparable data. Safety per mile in driverless operation? No.
"people have driven coast to coast without a single intervention on FSD including parking spot to parking spot"
I find this claim very dubious. Prove it. Teslas never drive empty for a very good reason.
Writing this and linking to fake Wikipedia is actually hilarious.
They do not. They have a very small number of them open to a select number of people, not the general public. And they are limited to even smaller areas. You need to understand that Musk is NOT an engineer, he is more of a con man desperate to inflate tesla stock price. If he says self driving cars don't need LIDAR then they must actually need it.
https://futurism.com/future-society/polymarket-fortune-betti...
Polymarket user David Bensoussan has made $36,000 by betting against Musk's wildly optimistic self driving predictions.
linking to grokipedia feels like intentional rage-baiting.
Whats wrong with grokipedia its a bit less woke/far left wing, more balanced.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2025/08/20/elon-mus...
https://futurism.com/leaked-elon-musk-self-driving
For nearly a decade Elon Musk has claimed Teslas can truly drive themselves. They can’t. Now California regulators, a Miami jury and a new class action suit are calling him on it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...