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We are certainly closer now to being able to prototype and go to market faster with a product. In one weekend is a little much but I think its hard to deny that building will continue to expedite. What most developers don't think about is that the marketing, sales, customer service are all non-trivial parts of the business/product and all require legwork that is more than just sitting at an IDE. The nail in the coffin is that the data is a large part of company moats, and new products need time in the market to get that. Migration is also a long process and risky...so to get customers, a newcomer needs to provide way more value than what the incumbent gives.

I imagine you're going to have people trying to automate the whole GTM lifecycle, but eventually the developer that thinks they can bootstrap a one man enterprise without actually doing any kind of social interaction will run into a wall.

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> bootstrap a one man enterprise without actually doing any kind of social interaction will run into a wall.

But you are not limited to only using LLM for coding.

I agree that marketing and sales is as important as product and technology, but they are not necessarily safe.

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> We are certainly closer now to being able to prototype and go to market faster with a product.

What are the higher-order effects when anyone can do this, and *aaS becomes a market for Lemons?

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I think that just because anyone can do it, doesn't mean they will. Lots of people have really great ideas but very few actually commit to execution. Ultimately ROI will go down, deincentivizing the commercialization of that thing someone wanted to bang out in a weekend.

In the very long term, software will become a commodity, as you mentioned. Process and workflow may move into JIT delivery for the need at hand, in theory the data layer will be comprehensive and clean and the days of clicking around a bunch of stuff to fulfill process needs will move into a lower latency activity like...talking to your agent.

I saw a quote today by Brian Eno(1995) that said: "So the question becomes not whether you can do it or not, because any drudge can do it if they're prepared to sit in front of the computer for a few days; the question then is: of all the things you can now do, which do you choose to do?" and it resonated with me a lot.

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> Lots of people have really great ideas but very few actually commit to execution.

This is true when you had to work hard for those ideas. Now you have LLMs. It means more people can sling a lot more crap at walls with fewer barriers to entry.

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Good execution doesn't get easier with an LLM.
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here's reality before claude:

- nearly every enterprise IT project is a failure anyway

- "can i do this for free?" savvy people write "thing i don't want to pay for github".

- ??? "stupid smelly nerds!" (https://www.reddit.com/r/github/comments/1at9br4)

okay, what was the actual obstacle? it's really simple: in order to use something FREE, you had to touch GITHUB, which meant GIT. and people hate git.

today, with LLMs:

- "can i do this for free?"

- LLM dutifully does the needful, using projects it finds and code it learned from github, and doing the prosaic tasks of launching them for you, whatever that means.

people are getting way up into their heads about what matters, psychosocial and management and whatever bs. chatgpt is FREE. it will fix your problems for FREE. people will put up with ANYTHING for FREE.

the real innovation is laundering all that inaccessible, pre-existing solution space into a format that doesn't require transiting git and giving it away for free.

don't believe me? all of the most profitable SaaS businesses in technology are the packaging, deployment and customization of pre-existing open source free software, whether it is linux, kvm, postgres, etc. they are factories to turn stuff that is inaccessible because it is in GIT, which SUCKS - that is the hard part for people to wrap their minds around, that GIT sucks - into websites you can pay for. now LLMs do that.

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If you can gin these things up in a weekend then why would you bother with a monthly subscription model for software? The only valuable part is the specification and possibly the hardware to run it. If I were a CTO trying to save money I might pay for the labor to develop good specs, but I would prioritize getting out from under software companies with a rent seeking models and 80 to 90% margins
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> If I were a CTO trying to save money

A CTOs job isn't to save money but to spend money effectively. Saving money by increasing risk is not neccesarily a prudent move.

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It's not a market for lemons. We can share info about the lemons and all choose to use the good ones. There's no information asymmetry.
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in the 90-ies anyone could easily prototype with tools like Access (and all the other "4GL" tools which were similarly all the rage back then). That still didn't preclude companies from buying their major software from software vendors instead of doing it themselves.

In some sense having customer able to prototype what they want is a good thing. I did it myself as i was at the time on that side, and having a quick-whip-it tool was a good thing to quickly get some feature that was missing in the major software before that major software would add it (if at all). (And if one remembers for example Crystal Reports - while for "reports", it and the likes were in many senses such quick-whip-it tools for a lot of such customization that was doable by the customer.)

So, after initial aftershock - "Ahhhh, we don't need software companies anymore!" - we'll get to the state with software companies still doing their thing just with a lot of AI as specialization is one of the main thing in modern economy and AI becomes most powerful tools of the trade. (and various AI components themselves will be part of software delivery, like say a very fine-tuned model (hosted or on-premise) specific to the customer and software - Clippy on steroids)

(Of course some companies wouldn't survive the transition just like some companies didn't survive the transitions to client/server, cloud, etc. while some new companies will emerge like Anthropic has today or Borland had at the time)

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Access is not as dead as you might hope. The long tail of internal tools written with Access continues to shamble along. I had to figure out how to dump MDB files on Windows last year for just this reason. As an industry I think we often fail to grasp how much outsider art there is, in the form of internal departmental tools.

LLM coding is going to create a cambrian explosion of these tools. It’s going to be very interesting to see the remnants of this wave 30 years down the line.

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One of the key questions here - will LLM coding decrease the proliferation of app-specific Excel files (by for example accelerating and simplifying Excel-to-webapp conversion) or would result in an opposite outcome by making feasible managing even orders of magnitude more of those disparate Excel files :)
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It means the same: random lottery of mass, with everuone else failing.

American capitalism hides the depressing fact that rarely does the best succees.

AAI momentum is parallel to just buying lottery tickets and doing so with the belief that you know the real odds, so one can overwhelm with quantity of tickets.

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In any usable product making a product is like 20% or less. Enter compliance, security, payments and a million other things.

Even if you can build it in a day B2B SaaS will continue to prosper because they sell peace of mind, reliability and compliance. Not features.

Also due to economy of scale it will always be cheaper to buy something from a vendor that sells it to many clients than to DIY it.

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Yep. Wait until they realize one of their vibe coded apps validates everything client side and their entire DB is open to the world.
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Like that never happened with non-vibecoded stuff.
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Of course it has, but it's more likely to happen when nobody is paying attention.
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Yep. It's a funny thing.

You build a Twitter. Profiles have posts, posts can have images, etc. It's very easy to model the database.

But then how do you make money with it? Now you need to build a separate system for advertising? Or do you want to sell subscriptions? Which means you need to build a separate system to handle payments. This is usually the big one, because when you handle money, what happens if there is a bug and you charge someone without delivering anything? How do you prevent fraud? How do you handle disputes?

Someone posted something illegal. What do you do in this situation? Do you call the police? The FBI? What kind of data do you give the authorities? How much data SHOULD you have been logging in the first place in case something like this happens?

One user doesn't like you so he bought a botnet to DDoS your website. How do you handle this? Are they mass posting? Mass creating accounts? Is it possible for them to exhaust all the usernames possible and then nobody can create an account anymore?

Your website is online but if the server blows up you'll lose all the data in the database. You need backups. You need a system to ensure the backups are actually working. But then some guy from the UK said he wants his posts all deleted. What are you going to do now, because his posts are also in the backups, and you don't want to touch those.

Trolls are posting things against the ToS. Who handles these things? Shadowban? So there needs to be a shadowban system? Moderators? So there needs to be a moderator-only section of the website? Should this be integrated with the main website or not?

Then you look at this horrendous mess of 6 paragraphs and you think back about the first paragraph that already did everything you wanted from Twitter. All these other systems, most of the work, and all you actually wanted was the first paragraph.

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It's still possible. Have the product and hire other people for these things.

Use stripe, cloudflare, whatever the legal equivalent of these stuff, S3.

Yes they might take most potential profit, but you'll also not have a huge payroll.

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All those things are true. It still doesn’t sound like 1000+ engineers at 350k/yr.

What actually happens in a startup is you encounter these problems one at a time as they arise.

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> We are certainly closer now to being able to prototype and go to market faster with a product.

Prototype maybe. Go to market maybe not so. It's giving false hope. You're just taking more shortcuts with prototyping.

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This vibe-coding-will-replace-SaaS insanity is the new crypto-will-replace-fiat-money insanity.
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It's shocking to me how prevalent this "who needs Salesforce when everyone can just vibe code their own CRM from scratch in a day" narrative has become in the business press. Like, what???
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That's not like "Who need Photoshop everyone can just vibe code their own photoshop"

They could just download GIMP or find cheaper alternative, that was always an option

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I've had a pleasure of using GIMP recently on Mac. One of the worst UX/UI experiences I've had in quite a while. If that's where vibe coding leads to, then Photoshop is very safe from disruption.
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No, the equivalent question that people are seriously asking is "Who needs Photoshop [or graphic designers] when everyone can just vibe paint their graphics with AI?"
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Same with „building custom businesses stuff” you can already do it quicker with existing CRM configuration without burning tokens.
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I vibe coded Stripe and Okta in a weekend. Time to deploy to prod and save some money!
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I don't think vibe-coding will replace anything. However, what if AI tools can make skilled developers more productive, particularly at simple tasks in unfamiliar environments? You could see that reducing the engineering costs of simple utility applications. There are tons of pitfalls that many here have pointed to but also maybe opportunities to do things that wouldn't have been cost effective.

Also: In my life the easier it has gotten to create and run software, the more software people have wanted and the more they have been willing to spend on it.

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I don't think it will replace SaaS but I do think it can replace the need for a lot of the consultant work that goes around configuring and integrating the SaaS. It will be much easier to have a spec that defines how things need to be configured and the machines can implement it (using the SaaS as tools). Frankly this is the most annoying part. It's not that the B2B stuff can't do whatever, it's that it never gets implemented in ways that aren't a pain in the ass because it's all handled by people who aren't actually using them.

I really don't think it's not going to become "these prompts are specs" and then you have processes of reviewing implementations. It's one thing when you have randos building stuff and they leave etc. Having stored prompts and managed code that uses tools is a different beast.

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People really seem to believe that code is the only thing you need to make a SaaS company. It's like thinking a line cook is all you need to open a restaurant. There are so, so many other components to running a business.
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I agree!

Although the proponents of this idea argue that companies will create and (!) maintain many tools in-house.

It’s not so much about running a business, since you don’t sell anything and only have internal customers.

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SaaS is mostly sales.
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100%, particularly B2B SaaS
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No serious programmer "vibe" codes. I admit creating SaaS may not be feasible with current infrastructure but you can't ignore the insane jump in productivity that these tools can offer with the right scaffolding.
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There is still a narrative here. Lots of SaaS recurring revenue is built on value-add features that can be easily replaced.
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& the counter-argument is those SAAS apps being killed by A.I are growing revenue 20%+ YOY

people who write this BS - one never don't understand SAAS fundamentals, they only see what's on the screen and forget the complexity that lives on the backend - forget the costs of running such a SAAS

before it was low-code will kill SAAS, then Visual UI builders, now its A.I

just like it was before that crypto will kill Trad-Fi

people who say these things - have tied their identity into it so they whole-heartedly believe the bullshit they say even though reality doesn't match

to anyone curious read the 10k (Annual Report) of any public SAAS - Salesforce | Workday etc - people should admire these companies for the machines / ecosystem they built - and also learn the good & mistakes to avoid i.e the bad

those annual reports tell you how the revenue generation machine works, how much revenue is expected 2+ / 3+ years from now - their weaknesses | headwinds and also tailwinds - how those companies grow and continue to grow etc

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What I struggle with is developers wanting to leave platforms like Datadog for open source equivalents that need to be self-hosted.

I hear all of the cost savings benefit, but I never see the team factoring in their own time (and others time) needed to set up and maintain these systems reliably long term.

Something IC’s at company often struggle to understand is the reason why companies often prefer to buy managed solutions even when “free” alternatives exist (read: the free alternatives are also expensive, just a different type of cost)

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My log bill for Google cloud log would be like 30k. For splunk I like 80k. I self host for 1.5k per month. Spend maybe an hour a month? Easiest money I ever made.
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When you’re in the middle of a production down event and your whole team is diagnosing the issue, and your log server is unresponsive, who do you contact for support?

No one, you pull an engineer off the production issue to debug the log server, because you need the log server to debug the production servers.

See the problem?

Edit: to be clear I’m no fan of Datadog and I wish self hosting were an option. I want this path for our company, but at least on our team we just don’t have enough (redundant) expertise to deploy and manage these systems. We’d have to hire an extra FTE.

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If you’re having a correlated outage like that, then it’s likely you fix the prod issue before the cloud engineers at some giant cloud company even respond to an internal escalation much less fixes an issue. More than likely your prod issue is causing the logging problem.

If you mean you are experiencing two totally unrelated issues at the same time, then I don’t think that’s a reasonable thing to really assign much value to as it’s incredibly unlikely.

Half of $30k/mo trivially pays for an engineer you hire to only manage such a cluster for you and just works an hour a week unless a pager goes off if you truly need that level of peace of mind. If you’re hiring for such a position I have a few rock star level folks who would love such a job.

The hypothetical problems people imagine for on-prem infrastructure get really strange to me. I could come up with the same sort of scenarios for cloud based SaaS infrastructure just as easily.

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> I don’t think that’s a reasonable thing to really assign much value to as it’s incredibly unlikely.

In my experience the systems/tools needed to debug production issues are often only used when they’re needed.

Which now means you need health and uptime monitoring on your log server since without that, it might break randomly and no one notices until you need it.

> The hypothetical problems people imagine for on-prem infrastructure get really strange to me

It really comes down to the people and whether you have the expertise on the team. And whether the team can realistically manage the system long term. It’s typically safer to spend more money for the managed service.

(It’s a safer decision, not necessarily better)

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100% agree. If I am using a cloud log provider I wouldn't expect them to solve my logging issue(s) as fast as I need, more importantly I have no real way to put more resources on that fix.

More importantly, with a third party service I'd be very surprised if both went down at the same time and it wasn't a further upstream issue like AWS. If its my own logging service and it went down during a prod outage, I likely didn't properly isolate my logging service in the first place.

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The old argument for being locked in to legacy software costing 6-8 figures a year was that you had no choice. Now you have a choice! Clearly that is better, and everyone should evaluate that choice on its merits, and the stock market sees that people are voting with their dollars. If your whole sales pitch is "good luck when it breaks!" you might want to reevaluate your business model.
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The stock market is trying to predict that people will vote with their dollars in the future. I’m not quite sure people are really replacing enterprise Saas at large corporations yet. It’s more of a projection.
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Fair, however at some point of a companies size/spending the complexity of integrating with a SaaS becomes as large as the one to run your own open source tool.

Beyond that, and Im aware this is very much application/company dependent, theres plenty of SaaS companies that offer horrendous or no support no matter what you pay. We used to use splunk for monitoring and logging. Paid a ton of money because we were handling financial data and needed tracibility and reliability. We constantly had to put out fires that were caused by their unreliable platform. It was not a good experience.

Ultimately, we jumped ship to Prometheus. We pay a fraction of the price and spent less time on it.

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You don’t, you just look at the log like us old timers and solve the problem. It’s literally no different than solving the problem on the cloud.
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Have you ever tried to contact their support?

The problem is all these SaaS companies have cut costs so much that all their support has been reduced to useless offshore at best and at worst a chatbot. They do go down and don't work and often times there's simply nothing you can do. The worst offenders will seize upon the moment and force you to upgrade a support plan before they will even talk to you, even if the issue is their own making.

Unless you're a huge customer and already paying them tons of money, expect to receive no support. Your only line of defense if something happens and you're not a whale is that some whale is upset and they actually have their people working on the problem. If you're a small company, startup, or even mid-size, good luck on getting them to care. You'll probably be sent a survey when you don't renew and may eventually be a quotient in their risk calculus at some point in the distant future, but only if you represent a meaningful mass of customers they lost.

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This is the exception to the rule
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Do they actually not understand that? They might just be fine with a system that makes them more useful.

How do you calculate the time spent on an internal tool like this, actually? (I’ve never been in management). Realistically your team inevitably will have some downtime, maybe some internal tool maintenance can be fit in there? I mean it obviously isn’t fully “free” but is also shouldn’t be “billed” at their full salary, right?

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> Realistically your team inevitably will have some downtime

What? My team wouldn't have any downtime even if we had 10x the amount of people.

If you work at a company where you have times where you don't have work to do, you should polish your resume because it means the company will go under.

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Doing work is easy, not doing work is hard. It's trivial for any engineer to find stuff to do. The trick is doing the right stuff. Most software is bad and clunky, most requirements are wrong, and most of your customers, at best, tolerate your product.

I think most software companies need to be doing less. Deleting code, refining, and making their product genuinely useful as opposed to "able to technically contort to client needs".

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Agreed, our backlog is insane.
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I'm sorry but the amount of companies that need something like DataDog is quite small compared to their 30,000+ customer count. Maybe 5,000 companies on Earth truly need something like DataDog, 80% of their customers would be perfectly fine with a self hosted instance of grafana.

Using an open source self hosted solution should be the industry standard, encouraged position, by default. Our industry does not gain overall from using DataDog but only from truly open source solutions that utilized AGPL licenses that allows everyone to move forward together + share lessons together + contribute together toward a common goal of better observability.

Why are we acting like it's hard to set up? This isn't the 1990s, it's 2026. Tooling has gotten quite good over the last decade.

Also corporations stupidly spend money all the time, they over spend too. I recently left a company that was paying SalesForce $10mil a year in licenses when only 8 people in the entire 3,000 person company was using it. I doubt that was the only single instance across our industry too. There is a massive amount of waste and graft in enterprise sales.

I honestly doubt it if you replaced grafana for 10,000 DataDog customers they would notice the difference.

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> Why are we acting like it's hard to set up?

Because the current generation of “full stack” engineers are great at spinning up react apps, but struggle with infrastructure and systems management. It’s really not any more complicated than that.

On a typical 8 person engineering team, maybe 1 or 2 people will know how to deploy anything to the cloud if you’re lucky.

The expertise just isn’t there at most companies.

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I guess we really are living through the leetcode generation! D:
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Because most of them arent trained to think economically... how many people on the planet do you think are aware of the notion of opportunity cost?
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If there's ever any use case to leave an expensive SaaS for self hosted, you can find it at datadog
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The problem is right now management is not only insisting on their team vibe-coding bespoke replacements, they’re avoiding paying for other SaaS because they can vibe-code their own replacements, often themselves, and they’ve lost sight of that they probably don’t want to be responsible for it.
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So you think this downturn will be short lived?

When management realise that the vibe coded projects are not maintainable, SAAS will be as popular as ever

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It seems that current advantages would compound with AI. I.e., if I am making a SaaS for Popsicle stick makers today, why I am disadvantaged with AI vs a new competitor in the space? I guess the hypothesis is the Popsicle stick maker will vibe code all of the software that they need instead. For that, we need significantly better AI than we have today - perhaps something like a 1000X improvement. Basically, this is a world in which non-technical grandparents can vibe code anything that they want. This means, it understands what you want without you being able to articulate it well in the first place.
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I don't do tea leaves so I wouldn't commit to that, particularly because I think SAAS was oversold in general even before LLMs came out. But I think the idea that the industry as a whole will shrivel away just isn't feasible, even if there is a correction.
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The B2B startup motto of "where someone is using Excel to do something other than accounting, there's a startup waiting to happen" has been shockingly resilient over the decades, and I suspect will continue to be.
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Paper forms used to be our main competitor.

Paper forms have some amazing features that software really can't compete with. And also some significant downsides that software fixes.

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We need a new one: "Where someone is using a vibe-coded internal tool made by the creative department that keeps needing bug fixes, there's a start up waiting to happen."
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In many cases, it's not a downturn, just a return to reasonable valuations. Other sectors should follow
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I dont even blame management. I believe most of them are well-aware that much of what is going on right now is pure hype.

However, they dont have a choice. The sentiment of shareholders is that they want their cash (yes it is their cash that managers re-invest on their behalf) to be invested in AI-related projects.

So...... you get what you get, and investors will get what they deserve. But they will still blame the management in the end ;)

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All of the hype surrounding AI will subside when a SaaS company eventually deploys a moltbot version of their software and the company is driven out of existence due to the chaos that ensues.
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So… next week then?
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They will magically realize this when their huge bonuses will be tied to something longer lasting than last quarter/year performance on some very narrow metric (which has nothing to do with sane stuff like adding long term value to some part of the company).

They are not stupid, far from it, most are (very) high functioning sociopaths. And out and up there its everybody for themselves first.

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The difference between a vibe-coded prototype product, even a good one, and an enterprise SaaS platform is the difference between a Lightning bug and a Lightning Bolt.
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I totally agree about the management reluctance to just own everything in house.

But I think it’s plausible that SaaS companies will be easier to start with AI coding, and with lower costs (thanks to AI) they will be able to get into the black with a smaller addressable market. So each one can have a different mix of fewer features, for different segments of customers, at lower prices.

The result would be a loss of pricing power by the incumbent do-everything big guys: no more baked-in 10% annual increases. Which is still a pretty big change in their economics. And therefore valuations.

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The companies that already have a strong in-house team will greatly benefit from AI. Many of those who don't are in that situation because managers have PTSD from so many failed projects. Half of all projects fail. That's a lot of emotional trauma.
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This was all possible pre-AI. The reasons that some Saas companies win have nothing to do with how quickly or cheaply code can be written for the Saas.
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If the management is the one actually paying for the software from their own pocket (founder), the tables turn. There are millions of SME owners who are forced to pay for B2B software just out of necessity and not having resources to build it in-house.

AI could change that for good.

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what if this time it's senior developers and they actually can slap something together better then the expensive SAAS offerings?

what if the expensive SAAS offering is just as vibe coded and poor quality as what a junior offers?

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You're not considering opportunity costs and buyers vs. users.

If your senior developers can slap together something better than an expensive SAAS offering you want them directing that energy at your core products/services rather than supporting tools.

And the people deciding to buy the expensive SAAS tools are often not the people using them, and typically don't care too much about how crappy the tool may or may not be for doing the job it's advertising as doing.

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And it's never just the slapping together. it's the ktlo: a perpetual tax on your eng team for every thing they own.
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No matter what it's a tax on your engineering team to keep it together. But the most brittle parts are always right at the seams. It's not as hard to sew together components when you can cut the cloth down to fit together. Who knows how it'll shake out.
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Clubbing all saas products together just means you can’t really have a productive discussion. Saas products are on a spectrum of quality, from amazing (stripe, datadog) to terrible (fivetran, github). Its upto you as a user to make a call as to which will serve you best, what you should focus your limited resources on etc.
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> what if this time it's senior developers and they actually can slap something together better then the expensive SAAS offerings

A typical SaaS customer will use many pieces of software (we mostly call them SaaS now) across its various functions: HR, accounting, CRM, etc. Each one of those will have access to the same pool of senior devs and AI tools, but they will pour more resources into each area and theoretically deliver better software.

The bigger issue here is the economics of the C-suite have not changed here. Assume a 100 CPG company uses 10-20 SaaS apps. Salesforce might be $100k/year or whatever. 1Password is $10k. Asana $10k. etc. They add up, but on the other hand it is not productive to task a $150k employee with rebuilding a $10k tool. And even with AI, it would take a lot of effort to make something that will satisfy a team accustomed to any modern SaaS tool like Salesforce or Atlassian. (Engineers will not even move off Github, and it's literally built on free software.)

That's before I get to sensitive areas. Do you want to use a vibe-coded accounting system? Inventory system? Payroll? You can lose money, employees, and customer perception very rapidly due to some bugs. Who wants to be responsible for all their employee passwords are compromised because they wanted to save $800/mo?

Then, the gains from cutting SaaS are capped. You can only cut your SaaS spend to zero. On the other hand, if you have those engineers you can point them at niche problems in your business niche (which you know better than anyone) and create conditions for your business to grow faster. The returns from this are uncapped.

TL;DR; it's generally not a great idea to build in-house unless your requirements are essentially bespoke.

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As my manager said to a young me when I offered to replace our CMS, and promised I could do a good job at it, "you could probably assemble our office furniture too, but I don't want to pay you to do that either"
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The law of comparative advantage strikes again.
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We have replaced many SaaS with inhouse solutions, but most of these where lacking in quality and where part of our existing core business model which we where not "owning" prior. We can flip the argument where we have lost customers and revenue due to SaaS not delivering

The gains is generally more seen outside of monetary as these SaaS solutions where holding us back for achieving our goals and improving our services to our customers. As in the end of the day our customers do not care if "insert SaaS" is having issues, it will always be our problem to own.

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To the first question, if your senior devs can do that there's almost certainly something more directly valuable to your business they could be doing than solving a problem your vendor has already solved

The second question is a valid one, and I think it will somewhat raise the bar of what successful SAAS vendors will have to offer in coming years

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There are of course exceptions to every rule, and I'm sure some companies have been successful in building their own in-house tooling.

At the end of the day these decisions are all series of trade-offs, and the trick is understanding your requirements and capabilities well enough to make the right trade-offs.

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Nice what ifs, but not valid so far. I get the motivation to think/hope so, but thats not the proper business world right now where big money are. Maybe next year it could start becoming true but then market will be a bit different too
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It that works, nobody would be using Jira anymore, because people would just use a competitor that's cheaper or vibe code their internal Jira tool.

Somehow that has not happened yet in 2026.

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This is because what management wants and what builders want are not aligned, not because the quality of JIRA is so amazing that no other alternative could ever be created. JIRA is fine but many people I know that use have some qualms with it because the bloat is pretty crazy.
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As Spolsky said a quarter century ago, "bloat" is just "bugs somebody already fixed". (He may have actually said that about "cruft", but the idea still applies.)
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Hard to believe that it was that long ago!
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> "just do the parts of it we actually use".

25 years here. You can absolutely do this. Most software is orders of magnitude more complex than it needs to be.

The junior programmer you are talking about who wanted to rewrite it in a weekend tends to come back with a working program, not empty handed.

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I've seen this happen with both juniors and seniors. They do come back with a working solution /for the happy path/. Because the happy path is easy. It turns out that most of the complexity sits in the unhappy paths.
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Yes, I didn't really doubt the developer could do it, the problems are:

1. That's not a great use of the developer's time, and

2. anything in-house increases our training and support costs

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There's that and then there are companies spending 100k on a software suite just to use that 2 features. So now one of their junior dev solves it and becomes a hero. The truth it always somewhere in the middle.
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Your profit margin is my opportunity.
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sorry, what do you mean?
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1. Enthusiastic employee (vibe-)codes a replacement for a turnkey SaaS product that the company uses.

2. Company uses it, maybe even starts to rely on it for important business operations, and for a time the employee supports that app.

3. Bugs creep in, feature request pile up.

4. Employee either leaves the company or moves on to another project.

5. Pain

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And don't forget the safety in getting to say "our systems are down because of [X TRUSTED SOFTWARE FROM LARGE KNOWN BRAND] and we're just waiting for them to fix it" instead of "our shitty internal tooling is broken and no one knows how to fix it"
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Yes that's reverse-implied(??) in the "Pain" step. ;-)
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This feels like it goes along the lines of "people's vibe code is cluttering up our PR's, people still need to review" -- it misses the boat: models are already capable of getting you up to speed on how the code is organized and works, in as much as you want to or need to be up to speed. They are already helping me cut down review time because I don't need to aimlessly hop around, I have a good starting point that I can scrutinize and dialogue about. Same thing here: employee leaves company -- about 3 years ago you would be right, now the company is left with an unmaintainable mess of legacy code and tech debt. TODAY this just doesn't matter. No one really needs to read that code too closely, it's already easy for agents to digest and explain and modify.

Doing this today, in production, with full trust, is clearly not wise, but the writing is clearly on the wall that this is going to be the norm more and more over the coming years. The times they are a-changin.

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I think it has to actually work at least once before we can start predicting it will be the norm.
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Can you be clear what you mean? What are you saying has not worked once?

And "it will be the norm" is a clear corollary of, absent any significant and unforeseen roadblock, even with the current highly imperfect agentic sausage-making factories we have today, what capabilities will be in like 6-12 months time.

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When the effectiveness of vibe coding an internal workflow was measured, only 5% of efforts worked. That's pretty rare and bad. And those are the early adopters who tend to be more adaptable and effective with new technology. That's a big part of why people don't believe the (your) hype. Its great at simple things with a low cost of failure. Problem is, its rare to pay a good wage for simple things with a low cost of failure. Also, writing new code isn't a big part of most engineers jobs. To put it more simply, vibe coding optimizes the wrong things about engineering.
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I think you can avoid the pain by thoughtfully designing it to avoid lock-in. You want it so that if needed, a dev can vibe-code a migration tool to the equivalent SaaS offering. AI lowers the barrier for creating these in-house replacements, but it also lowers the barrier for scrapping them too.
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The thing about lower barriers is that it makes it easier for e.g. Salesforce to raise the level of expectations. And that's the moving target. New employees will come from elsewhere and wonder how a company is operating using tools from 2020 when X, Y, Z are becoming industry standard.

The key here is that the moving target will _never_ be "what can 1-2 people vibe code without any expectation of being the best at what it does?"

(Also: training people on bespoke tools takes much longer than training on configurations of standard tools. Imagine if you had to learn a new source control system at every job, like in the '80s.)

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ya ok, this makes total sense. i agree.
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Even more accurate (I work in this space):

3. Bugs creep in, feature request pile up.

4. Employee continue in the company and request help (or the managers see the need):

4.1 They hire more, but if all are vibe-coders too

4.1.1 The product gets more complicated (no more complex, that good developers can manage!)

4.1.2 Bugs creep in, feature request pile up.

4.1.3 People start to get desperate, not worries! now:

4.1.3.1 Somebody vibe-code a new alternative that solves the immediate problem

4.1.3.2 Bugs creep in, feature request pile up.

4.1.3.3 Needs to sync with the other tools

4.1.3.3.1 Somebody vibe-code the sync that solves the immediate problem

(the saga continue)

In parallel:

4.2 Eventually is obvious that need external help

THEN:

4.2.1 They ask for consultors for build tool, of course, from a company that has embraced the IA!

4.2.2 They build new shinny tool!

4.2.3 Bugs creep in, feature request pile up.

4.2.4 Needs to sync with the other tools ....

AND:

4.3.1 They ask for consultors, to teach them what to do, of course, from a company that has embraced the IA!

4.3.2 New shinny theory of how do the thing with IA is now being implemented!

4.3.3 It require a rewrite of not only past solutions but, a change of how the company behave!

4.3.3.1 Needs to sync with the other tools .......

4.3.4 And it spark beautiful office/political debates around some philosophical whatever that also trigger changes in the structure, hiring or whatever, alienating the people that has been working there, that after months, has started getting the handle of it!

4.3.5 Employees either leaves the company or moves on to another project.

4.3.6 New employees arrive, with a wild new IA tool and different vibes that vibe-coding!

... the saga continues

5. Is now clear that it need to buy a product form a well stablished software provider

5.1 And all of them are now in the IA craze!

.............

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Did you just put my post into ChatGPT with a prompt like "take this joke, make it unnecessarily longer, and get rid of the punchline"?
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Nope, normal insanity of mine!
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All of this will create noise whilst up-starts and competitors who dont fall for the trap carry on making real forward progress.

lol

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If I understand correctly many organizations will not develop original stuff internally, because nobody internally wants to be the one is shouted at if something goes wrong.
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That's a huge part of it. But also you presumably hired a full-time programmer for a reason, and in almost every case that reason was not to have somebody to write and maintain your CRM system. So any system they build and maintain is not just another thing for you to worry about, it's a huge chunk of time that the developer isn't doing what you hired them for.
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Depends on the size of the organization.
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If software already exists that does X, X is a solved problem. You didn't hire a developer to solve already-solved problems.
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ya, i agree. but in your world, this company will fail https://glue.ai/ ?
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Think about it differently - let's say a free OSS product can be installed and you can use ALL features except for LDAP (because that's the paywalled portion that requires you to buy it for $25k / month.)

Well, with claude, you can download the code, tell it to implement LDAP authentication, and smile all the way to the bank. And for said fortune 500 company, employing an employee to spend 100% of their time maintaining the app at 10k per month is a 15k savings! And because it _doesn't really take 100% of their time_ it's really only like $500 per month? And to be completely honest, how man times did you get Jira to fast-track your issue?

I get it however, the manager angle. It's still a distraction. But the article being referenced still shows revenue going down.

There's definitely a lot of cope in here, mostly because SaaS is keeping them employed... be ready, the crush is "almosthere".

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> an employee to spend 100% of their time maintaining the app at 10k per month

If the cost to the company is $10K a month, the developer's topline salary is $60K, which is going to be a hard hire to make.

And, again, if they can integrate LDAP with an existing software package at that price point, I want them doing something more valuable than that.

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I like to bring up JIRA example. You could replace it in-house yeah it is just tickets with statuses. /s

But then keep in mind one who built the replacement will become the owner of an application that business doesn’t want to pay for and that person will be cost center for the company.

That person better get marketing and negotiating skills that Atlassian has on board because that person will be responsible for the app and will not be getting salary increases for working on something that is not core business of the company.

Even if you can make LLM to do the app for you.

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You guys keep using services like Jira, Salesforce, Stripe, Datadog, etc. While those are definitely the biggest names, I don't think people are referring to those SaaS platforms as the ones they will replace or try to build an inhouse version of. It will be things like ETL pipeline services, data scraping services, maybe some internal analytics SaaS. The niche things that cost a lot because they’re in a sweet spot where only a few people need them, but no one used to have the resources to build them in-house. So, when the salesperson called and offered a perfect solution to their problem, they bought the service. Those are the ones that will be more targeted for in-house solutions.
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Yes, but the market is punishing the former right now.
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