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> holding up that Fog Creek/Trello/SquareSpace story as a positive always drives me somewhat nuts. It lionizes a failure.

That's a common bias in management. Heroic fire fighting gets rewarded while silently preventing a crisis with proper planning isn't. Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened.

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We had a discussion about this at my last job. The War rooms were a three ring circus that my team stayed out of 4 times out of 5, substantially by actually planning ahead. Though as time went on we started doing a lot more to protect the services behind us instead of just ourselves, and then the total war room count dropped like a rock.

Someone hit on the notion that it’s Stockholm Syndrome. You bond with people you go through shit with. You don’t bond with people who prevent the shit. That was a super awkward conversation. The asshole in charge quit shortly after it, but 2 years later we still occasionally called each other out for making plans that accounted for a toxic chain of command that was no longer toxic.

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> Nobody ever gets credit for fixing problems that never happened.

Exactly why the general public thinks Y2K was a "hoax" or "overblown".

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I had a tech coworker who thought Y2K wasn't really a thing. I started working in tech in the middle of '99 and was dealing with Y2K stuff right out the gate. He started in the industry in 2001, so missed it.
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See also: vaccines
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And yet measles is making a comeback in the US
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Exactly because vaccines were so successful that people don't remember what it was like without them. Once enough people start dying in large scale measles outbreaks people will start getting vaccinated again.
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This is also a statistical fallacy biased towards dismissing vaccine injured people.
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That feels like Amazon's entire management philosophy. Always drop the most important thing to work on at a moment's notice because we need to put out the fires caused by not prioritizing the most important things to work on.
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At one point we had 2 2pts in our group and the other manager’s performance for that year was based on operational excellence (is that no longer a thing)? We hadn’t grind ticket root causes for months, but on call went from being woken up multiple times a night to possibly never getting paged the whole week.

Unfortunately, that typically meant when you were paged, the problem was probably significant, hard, or it was another team and you were just being triaged in because you were affected or might be able to help root cause.

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> in 2012, I literally quit Fog Creek, largely over the fact that we had no backup strategy and I was told that a backup strategy was not feasible

This anecdote hits differently for me. I grew up reading about Fog Creek and consuming all of their writings (and that one film) as an example of what a software development company should look like. It feels strange to have the curtain peeled back to reveal that something like backups, which would be considered basic requirements today, were not part of their early operations.

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Fog Creek of 2012 was a pretty different company from the Fog Creek in the early 2000s. While Joel was still technically in charge he had mostly delegated responsibities and spent almost all of his time working on Stack Overflow.
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But was "early Joel" FogBugz any good? I heard that it wasn't from somebody who tried it. That unsuccessful trial was also the only time I heard of anyone using it.
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I religiously read Joel’s books - I think it made me a great Junior / Mid Engineer - sad to hear the failures.
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I don’t mean to glorify the poor planning or risk management, but still have a ton of respect for the people who organized the response and who did that hard work, just because it was what people needed.

My company during Sandy was operated in both NY and SF, and our experience was a bunch of us on the west coast filling in for those who were not only unable to get to the office, but without power themselves in NYC. It was all unfamiliar stuff for us (different business functions were done there, but the NYC office’s work was time critical) but did build camaraderie.

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Ehhh.

"Everyone coming together to solve a problem by any means necessary" still loses something if the problem is sufficiently imaginary.

Like, carrying fuel up 17 flights to keep a children's hospital powered on, or a MUD that's been running continuously since '93? Sure, inspiring as hell.

"Our company's product will be offline for a few days and we'll theoretically lose money/marketshare, but all our customers will be super understanding because they were all watching the news and, holy shit, did you see that tunnel get flooded, and then everything will turn back on and be fine with no extraordinary effort on our part...?"

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I think that's fair. I've been in situations where there are kind of "manufactured emergencies" which boil down to a sales conversation on a deadline which ends up getting rescheduled anyway. I have very little tolerance for that.

In the case of Fog Creek during Sandy, because the software we hosted provided planning and project management for a lot of people, going offline would have a pretty large ripple effect. Sure maybe 95% would've been fine, but I knew of customers who e.g. managed emergency services and crisis response, and so keeping them online was meaningful to me.

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"Our company's product will be offline for a few days and we'll theoretically lose money"

This was a startup. The company getting fucked could mean our jobs going away. It was our equity too.

Not everybody is just punching a clock, while resenting the owners of the company. In our case, we wanted our company to do well because we liked working together.

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> carrying fuel up 17 flights to keep a children's hospital powered on, or a MUD that's been running continuously since '93? Sure, inspiring as hell.

If MUD is the type of game you're falling into the same trap as the one you're signaling but worse. You're putting in the same sentence "saving kids' lives" and "the bragging rights for a game's uninterrupted session" on equal footing.

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Humor isn't dead, despite HN doing its best to kill it.
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Before Jane Street I did more humble work helping gay men hook up as fast as possible via a proto-Grindr site. We were co-located downtown when 9/11 happened. They had diesel generators but they ran out of fuel after several days because the national guard wouldn't let the diesel supply trucks through.

When we went offline customers were super understanding!

Except one customer who was outraged and we felt totally comfortable banning their account.

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Nit: the fact that an event occurred does not mean that the chance was 100% (although I guess this does depend on how one understands probability).
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Probability is a way of expressing uncertainty. This is the core insight of Bayesian methods. That uncertainty is not an objective universal fact, though. It is specific to your state of knowledge.

If I flip a fair coin and don't look at it as it sits in my hand, the probability of heads is 50%. Your estimate should be the same. Before or after the flip doesn't matter because our state of knowledge is the same.

If I look (and you don't), the probability that it is heads from my state of knowledge is 100% or 0%. Your estimate would be unchanged because you didn't get any more information.

If somebody looks at the coin and tells you what they say, you estimate should be somewhat less than 100% or more than 0% depending on how much you trust them.

All of this is the long way around the barn to say that after the hurricane, the probability that Sandy hit Manhattan is definitely 100%. That's past tense probability, however. It is still also true that the best estimate a year before it hit would be much, much lower. Using words like "probably that a hurricane would hit Manhattan" makes interpretation much harder, of course, because of the uncertain time frame.

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It seems to me you're conflating the probability of x happening in the future as assessed from some previous point in time versus the probability of x happening in the past as assessed from the present. Without clarification the wording is ambiguous but I think generally interpreted to mean the former. It would be quite odd to go with the latter as it's rather tautological.
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> All of this is the long way around the barn to say that after the hurricane, the probability that Sandy hit Manhattan is definitely 100%

Nobody talks like this in real life. I can't even believe someone bothered to write multiple sentences to try and justify it.

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It was sometime in the mid-2000s when I went from an admirer Joel's writings and what Fog Creek was doing to suddenly realizing it was all just very slick marketing on top of very mediocre stuff.

It really was a shocking wake up period for me in the realities of the real world vs. how we often perceive things.

IIRC it was the whole "Wasabi" thing that kind of opened up my eyes that there was a lot more smoke and mirrors involved than I had realized before.

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Speaking of Fog Creek, I didn’t realize that they renamed to Glitch and are totally out of business now.
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It's hero culture and it's a curse people beg to keep.
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Your comment brings back the times I've been on teams that worked double the hours a full time job should be, or spent 18 hours in a data center because a migration/data transfer was failing, and, and and.

So many times it's taken herculean effort to make things happen, usually because of poor planning and poor leadership.

Why these are viewed as "successes" or "heroic" baffles me as well.

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Because it's cheaper to tell the team or company you're a hero and toss you a pizza and a day off than to hire enough people and competent leadership.

It's not a mystery, it's exploitation.

With all the business efficiencies we've made with computers as devs and IT, we should all be working 3 days weeks, instead a few people are so rich they can buy elections.

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It is not even cheaper! Every time I have seen these, they burned immense amounts of unnecessary time and money.
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> With all the business efficiencies we've made with computers as devs and IT, we should all be working 3 days weeks, instead a few people are so rich they can buy elections.

It's never going to work like that, and you don't need any dastardly, sinister, or conspiratorial explanations for why. It's a natural side effect of the market being competitive.

When tools and technology make people more efficient, some people take that to mean they can work fewer hours and get the same job done. Which is true. But other people take that to mean they can work the same amount of hours, and get way more done. This is also true.

In a market in which two companies are competitors, and one takes the former approach and one takes the latter, which company do you think will still be around in ten or twenty years? Obviously the latter. And that pressures people in the former group to demand more output and stable working hours so they can remain competitive.

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> In a market in which two companies are competitors, and one takes the former approach and one takes the latter, which company do you think will still be around in ten or twenty years?

That is an argument of faith (that companies where employees work longer survive more than companies that optimise differently), and I am not convinced it is supported by evidence.

One could argue that all other things being equal, companies with employees doing more hours are more productive (even though I seriously doubt that, there are diminishing returns very quickly). But then I would argue that if a company drives their employees harder, there are leadership and management issues, so other things are not equal. And this is associated with younger workers (adaptable: good, inexperienced: less good), high turn-over (so, long-term information retention issues) and lower worker satisfaction (so the whole thing is self-defeating in the long term).

Besides, there are many, many factors involved that have nothing to with with working time. Again, leadership, strategy, operations, marketing, personal connections, dumb luck…

Personally I think there is an optimum somewhere, and at some point you get more out of your workers by making them more invested and motivated than making them work longer.

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If we got rid of some of the greed and gave the workers a taste then maybe?

But everywhere I have seen people overworked has terrible morale and low productivity in spite of the hours.

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This isn't entirely true, or we'd all still be working 80hrs like factory workers at the start of the industrial revolution.

I think it also remains to be proven that the company that works their employees the hardest will necessarily outcompete the others.

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The 40 hour work week was the result of strikes and legal maneuvering by unions that led to labor protection laws in the early 1900s. Otherwise we would likely still be working those 80 hour weeks (alongside our kids).

It’s not necessary that the longer hours actually translate into productivity, just that the boss feels like it should.

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And the fact that the strikes had a chance was largely due to improving conditions including, among other things, a working legal system that made it harder to flat out kill strikers.

Well, good organizing, too.

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The answer is obviously that an overseer (i.e. the state) must enforce a floor to avoid a race to the bottom, because that argument implies then why not work 14 hours, 6 days a week. Like safety laws enforcing a common standard so companies are not out-competed by ditching safety measures, labour laws are also part of keeping the playing field fair in an competition economy.

Yet after 100 years of explosive technological growth we still have the labouring hours of the 1930s...

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You can also curb greed with extremely high taxes at the top. We did it after the Great Depression, top marginal tax rate was something like 90% over 10 mm per annum.

The result was that business owners invested in their workers and long term health of their business so it would continue to give them 10 mm per year instead of trying to cash everything out every 1/4.

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Been there, done that. 100% agree with your take. The actual workers should be celebrated for the extra effort but the need of the extra effort should be seen as a failure. It always stops at the first part.
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>Why these are viewed as "successes" or "heroic" baffles me as well.

Your source of confusion seems to be not recognizing that sometimes in life multiple things can be true at once. "Heroism" is generally about the actions of the individuals in response to a dangerous scenario, not how the scenario came about in the first place. "Success" is more overloaded, but can refer to both the overall system in place and the outcome of a given dangerous scenario, again separate from what caused that scenario to come about. This is near perfectly true in particular if, as is usually the case, the ones dealing with merde-hitting-spinning-blades on the ground are not the leadership. It may be idiotic, short sighted, lazy, inept leadership that lead to the problem (or it may simply be an unforeseen alignment of holes in the cheese), but if people on the ground go above and beyond to prevent the worst that's still heroic of them, personally. And if their efforts work that's a success. It'd be pretty strange to insist that the efforts of firefighters shouldn't be recognized just because somebody else did something stupid that resulted in a fire.

Yes, it's absolutely just as important what comes after. Ideally it's like the commercial aviation industry, where heroism on the parts of flight crews can be recognized and said heroism results in a top-to-bottom full systemic investigation and efforts to ensure that ideally nobody will ever be heroes in quite that way ever again. And have constant efforts to make sure heroism isn't ever required in the first place.

The opposite extreme of some organization using it as an excuse for inaction and cheapness (at least until the day arrives when heroic efforts are not enough and a true disaster really does occur) is abominable. Even worse, because in that sort of utterly failed leadership environment the people on the ground will probably get scapegoated too. And it's 100% worth acknowledging that there can be a "success trap" and Normalization Of Deviance situation here, where heroics keep averting the worst which lets bad leadership/management escape correction. But it's a trap precisely because each individual failure can still be bad, up to and including literally people dead, so the pressure to succeed is still there each time.

But if employees, be they civilian or military for that matter, perform far beyond the call of duty why would that ever not be heroic?

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The probability of a rare event does not go down after one happens. Especially with weather.
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Most rare weather events take time for conditions to build up again. Earthquakes, volcano eruptions, wildfires...
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Volcanic eruptions have an unpleasant tendency to be episodic, and onset can be far faster than hurricanes or wildfires. Best to minimize how much of your infra has even a (supposed) 0.001% annual chance of being affected.
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Earthquakes and volcanoes are not normally considered to be weather events.
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Heh. There's also cyclical weather patterns (El Niño). You get the point.
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Oh, hi Gecko! Wild to see you in writing again.

Anyway, I was the first Fog Creek employee on site at 55 broadway (one of our founders got their first, and two peer1 employees were also on site) and also part of the first wave of the "bucket brigade". Another dozen of us showed up over the coming hours as we assessed and fixed things.

The media coverage on this was never super accurate-- we were carrying (and later, relaying) 5 gallon covered plastic buckets (like the home depot buckets with sealed lids) up to the landing where the generator was to top up its reserve tank. At one point SquareSpace (who was also running exclusively out of this DC) hired a group of muscle to bring a 55 gallon drum up, but that wasn't us.

I don't view this as lionizing failure, though I can see your perspective. Across our products (then FogBugz, Kiln, Trello) we had different backup strategies in play, but we were definitely putting a lot of eggs in the local-datacenter-that-claimed-to-have-resilient-power basket. Kiln in particular had decided to use SANs for data resilience, and that proved particularly troublesome for trying to find a workaround once the storm hit-- FogBugz on the other hand was able to spin up an EC2 version and start a slow-but-would-have-worked-eventually migration (and we even had an employee hit the road for us-east-1 location with a bunch of encrypted backups so that we could get a fast data restore online), and Trello fast-tracked-and-completed its local-to-cloud migration. While it was true that the DC had a backup generator, the fuel tanks for the generator being in the basement and becoming unavailable was not part of their resiliency plan. I don't fault us for not catching that.

...although I did have to later write the dreaded "I'm sorry, we've been hacked" blog post as a direct consequence of us not properly deprovisioning a "temporary" AWS credential that we created during that sprint. I will fault us for not catching that.

Shortly after Sandy, I switched my role from core dev on FogBugz over to DevOps, and I built out the backup and restore resiliency we had been missing. It wouldn't have kept us online during Sandy, though.

It was dangerous, and a couple folks slipped and fell. That's not a good thing and I won't celebrate that. Many employees opted out of the bucket brigade for family, safety, or personal reasons. I threw out all the clothes I wore that week as they reeked of diesel... not great.

I wouldn't wish that experience on anyone, but having come through it with fortune and no slip-and-falls, I still think about:

- Walking around FiDi post storm and seeing the flooded tunnels, clogged with cars that had been washed into them from the street parking.

- Dropping off big armfuls of coffee and bagels in the lobby for the building work crews. The folks who were essentially dredging out the basement and getting the building back online did much harder work than us.

- Going shopping for aquarium supplies in order to best jerry-rig the pump that our founder has repurposed from the office fish tank in order to transfer diesel from the drums on the curb into our 5g buckets.

Something that kept me going was that I knew that one of our FogBugz customers was the emergency response service in Haiti, and they got absolutely walloped by the storm. They were using FogBugz to coordinate relief, so there wasn't any way I was going to let FogBugz go offline if I could help it. Turns out that meant climbing a lot of stairs.

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> Across our products (then FogBugz, Kiln, Trello) we had different backup strategies in play, but we were definitely putting a lot of eggs in the local-datacenter-that-claimed-to-have-resilient-power basket. Kiln in particular had decided to use SANs for data resilience, and that proved particularly troublesome for trying to find a workaround once the storm hit-- FogBugz on the other hand was able to spin up an EC2 version and start a slow-but-would-have-worked-eventually migration

The issue that I remember was that we had so many SQL Server databases that it was impossible to keep anything vaguely approaching a sane backup strategy; SQL Server just isn't designed to handle as many as we had. (I in fact remember talking to a famous SQL Server consultant [edit: this was likely Brent Ozar] we were using who said "that won't work," and then I or someone else was tasked with talking to a SQL Server dev at Microsoft about it and they ALSO said that it couldn't work, and when I brought this up, I was told that Microsoft was wrong. IIRC, the implication was that it would take an extremely long time (many days) to restore, and that the snapshots would likely be days old. I don't think any of that contradicts your memory about the very a slow restore going on, but might add some color.

(Likewise, Kiln supported multiple backend instances and had admin commands to copy and move repos between them, so it the SAN had specifically been the issue, we had workarounds that would've been fine with whatever EBS was up to those days. But I remember the databases being the blocker.)

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It was indeed Brent Ozar! Yes, that's all right, though a huge amount of the bottleneck was the off-the-shelf backup tooling we were using. In particular we couldn't move a database between servers without minutes-to-hours of downtime per one database, _and_ as our database count grew our time-to-take-a-backup grew _faster_ eventually meaning that by the time we did a full backup run, we'd be due to run another full backup run.

Our "One database per tenant" model was also the reason we were so slow to go to AWS-- the MSSQLServer licensing terms were cost-prohibitive.

However recognizing that around 90% of the FogBugz databases were free-tier and didn't get daily changes meant that teaching the backup scripts to skip creating redundant backups solved most of the issue.

Post-Sandy, I was able to solve most of this by:

1) Shipping full, diff, and incremental backups at different schedules

2) Scripting the ability to create warm standby servers powered by the latest fulls, then diffs as they come online, then the logs at the cutover time. (so you can provision a new server and seamlessly cut over to it)

3) Using our own scripts instead of the RedGate tool (which was _fine_ just not equipped to handle as many DBs as we had) to orchestrate the backups and restores. This in particular was needed for the "only back up modified dbs" fix.

This got us to most of what we wanted-- 0-downtown transitions of databases across servers, nightly offsite backups, fast backup runs. The final problem-- if our datacenter evaporated and we had to reprovision everything from scratch -- was left as an acceptable risk of "we'll fetch the nightlies from s3/Glacier while we do the slower part of rebuilding our servers."

But to your point, during Sandy, none of the above had been fixed yet. I think our sysadmin team was very strong, but they weren't programmers (and/or didn't have enough time to step back and program), and I was able to pick a lot of low hanging fruit in DevOps

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I mean this with love, but dude, you put your health (short term and long term) at risk over a web app? I think you need to reassess your life priorities. You work so that you can live and enjoy life. You don’t live just to be a worker.

There is no reason that they couldn’t have had more than 1 DC when Sandy hit.

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Life priorities are not static, when faced with once in a lifetime scenarios they will change very quickly. Rational thought during emergencies often goes out the door.

Not everyone is built the same, thankfully.

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I hear you, and agree with your spirit. I never felt in danger and was choosing my risks throughout the day. I'd also see folks working much more dangerous jobs than me all throughout FiDi trying to handle cleanup.

I guess it helps that I grew up in a rural place and did construction for a while, so lugging gas to a generator wasn't a new thing for me.

Also I was... 25? I'd be more cautious today, I think.

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> holding up that Fog Creek/Trello/SquareSpace story as a positive always drives me somewhat nuts. It lionizes a failure.

Firefighters are heroes who bravely enter burning buildings, beloved by children and adults alike, muscular figures who get pictured on sexy calendars and thanked by tearful families.

Officious paper-pushers who make a fuss about a few cardboard boxes stored under the fire escape stairs (like me!) seldom get pictured on sexy calendars.

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There's an element of risk involved, isn't there?

A firefighter entering a burning building is literally risking his or her life at that moment. A paper pusher who works on preventing the fire in the first place is normally very far from danger.

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Large part of firefighters jobs is preventative - inspections and such.
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To play devil's advocate, paying some dudes to haul diesel for a few days every decade might be a lot cheaper than maintaining a fully redundant failover site 24/7.
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A just a single day of labor would pay for a fuel pump and line so nobody has to carry fuel drums up a staircase.

Im all for doing some dirty work when needed, but if they expect 100% uptime they should be ready for something as common as a storm flood without risking injuries hauling fuel drums by hand.

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Fuel pump, oil line, and storage tank 17 stories high? In NYC? The is probably more then a few millions usd!
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Yeah but if there is an emergency you can buy a stand alone 60 PSI fuel pump for like $120 plus a roll of fuel line. That would get you half the height by itself if you put an empty barrel in between. And by either moving the pump or buying a second pump you could transfer it up to the top again in either a fuel barrel or straight into the generator tank. Probably 12V pumps because its an emergency and you need what is on the shelf, but that isn't any real obstacle for a temporary setup.
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60PSI will raise diesel about 50m. That's less than 17th floor, but it's worse than that because at the top of that 50m pipe, you get zero flow.

If you drop back to 30m of lift, you get still have 36PSI which is enough to get some flow. But that means that you need a holding tank (or lots of buckets) and another pump for another 30m of lift. That gets you to the 16th floor so you need another holding tank and a another pump.

That's a lot of complication. And getting those pumps to sit still can be a challenge.

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Hahaha, we tried! Aquarium pumps were all that we were able to source. "Serious" resources were being deployed (appropriately) to hospitals, etc., so we had to make due with what we already had on hand. Thankfully we had an office aquarium, so...
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They don't get paid extra. They're just expected to give up their free time and risk injury doing something they weren't hired for so bosses get a bigger bonus. (you also don't need a fully redundant site to maintain business continuity)
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It would likely still be cheaper to pay people the going wage to lug barrels of diesel up the stairs.

Or you could label it Hyrox/Crossfit/$FITNESSTREND and charge people money to do it. #barrelpump #verticalmarathon #fitnessgoals #blessed

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It's such a familiar engineering story. Heroic effort means someone, somewhere, screwed up. I aim for boring competence so nobody has to plugs gaps in systems and processes with their literal body sometimes.
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> I literally quit Fog Creek, largely over the fact that we had no backup strategy and I was told that a backup strategy was not feasible.

Quitting a job because of this is so funny to me. 2012 was truly a different time.

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Without disagreeing, I was, at the time, the lead for Kiln. I was acutely aware that any major issue with our one and only data center would result in Kiln going offline and us suffering irreparable harm, and my name would be the one tied to that, despite me fighting really hard to solve the underlying problem. Yeah, it was a different time in some ways, but I'd make that same call in the same situation again in 2026, too.
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You made the right call. I also worked at 55 wall.

My story [not as interesting] is that I was a emergency responder living in BPC and was relocated to the millennium hilton because it had a generator... BPC never lost power :/

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This is really interesting history. Thanks for sharing!
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I'm surprised they didn't put a window washing crane on the roof as DR to simplify the raising of the diesel. The strange ass shit I've seen implemented to make the failure mode easier instead of eliminating the failure has limited my faith in our system as a whole.
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Anyone here want to take bets on if NYFD would allow a crane to lift a barrel of diesel at 55 Wall?

For once , the name fits lol

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I'm surprised they didn't put a window washing crane on the roof as DR to simplify the raising of the diesel.

If there was electricity to run the window washing crane, they wouldn't need to haul diesel.

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If they are hauling diesel it’s to run a generator, a winch is nothing to a data center load.
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None of us felt comfortable operating the crane or MacGyvering it to lift a barrel of diesel into the sky, and the building staff that could've done so was focused on bailing out the basement. It was something we talked about though :-)
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That's fair, Rigging a barrel is a trick. It's actually pretty neat to watch an experienced rigger belt strap some oddly shaped item.

You can do a barrel knot, though with a modern metal barrel, you can also generally just do a hook on top an bottom and lift horizontally.

My comment was more about the goofy shit people do to make the failure mode simpler next time instead of eliminating the failure mode all together. Some of the places I've worked would probably have made one of us get trained on the lift or something instead of make sure we have the fittings on had or a fuel pump and hoses with 17 floors of head pressure. That would be the temporary fix and then when they got the quote for the pump it would become the fix.

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Seems to me it is more likely that someone did the calculations and figured it is cheaper to send a bunch of unlucky morons up the stairs with jerrycans in case of flooding.
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Unlucky moron here... eh, it's like the 5th order effect of the planning. Somebody definitely calculated it wasn't worth the money to maintain a hot offsite data center, and for the most part that felt ok because we had a profit sharing component to our salaries. But I don't think anyone could have drawn a line from that to the fact that Peer1 wasn't resilient to flooding.
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Startup bullshit. People at "scrappy companies" make cutting corners look like heroism and practical-mindedness. Meanwhile the little people suffer and prop everything up as the business almost implodes.
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I can understand your frustration, but let’s consider:

The chance of a hurricane within 24 months was never 100%. Looking back, it did happen, but you can’t judge future-facing decisions on post-hoc information that you didn’t have at the time.

There is a difference between “no one wanted to admit it wasn’t 0%” and “no one else thought the risk-adjusted return was positive.” When people decline to take some preventative measure, that’s usually what they’re saying implicitly.

I’ve been where you are—frustrated that you predicted and told people exactly what would happen, they didn’t listen, and you were right—many times in my career. It’s infuriating. Part of learning from it is figuring out how to get people to change, not merely figuring out how to be right.

My guess is that this kind of black/white Strong Opinions approach has bitten you throughout your career.

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